Dim-Pillbox-Tolerance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

66.4%

Resolved

283

Trades

3,394

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$307

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 10-26 14:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

68% 64% +$83

Politics

22% 66% -$40

Tech

9% 50% -$36

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$7

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 204 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+82	$69	93¢	$76	+$7	10-26 01:47
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+22	$22	99¢	$22	+$0	10-19 02:37
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+21	$20	92¢	$20	+$0	10-15 18:42
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	+19	$18	92¢	$18	-$1	10-18 21:27
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+17	$16	96¢	$16	+$0	10-21 17:45
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+17	$15	94¢	$16	+$0	10-16 12:37
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+15	$15	96¢	$14	-$1	10-16 12:37
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+12	$12	97¢	$12	+$0	10-22 09:24
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	+11	$11	97¢	$11	$0	10-23 12:14
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+10	$11	97¢	$10	-$1	10-07 02:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+120	$18	6¢	$8	-$10	10-26 06:24
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+10	$8	76¢	$8	$0	10-19 09:26
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+8	$7	94¢	$8	+$1	10-07 00:31
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+8	$8	96¢	$8	$0	10-20 19:58
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	+7	$8	94¢	$6	-$2	10-25 02:06
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+6	$6	97¢	$6	+$0	10-26 09:55
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+6	$6	97¢	$6	$0	09-19 16:08
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+6	$5	96¢	$6	+$0	10-19 19:40
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	10-17 22:57
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+4	$4	93¢	$4	$0	10-15 01:11
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	+4	$4	95¢	$4	+$0	10-25 07:36
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+4	$4	92¢	$4	+$0	10-07 00:31
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	09-23 01:51
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+4	$4	86¢	$3	$0	10-07 00:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+16	$3	20¢	$3	$0	10-19 05:06
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?	No	+3	$3	96¢	$3	$0	10-09 18:19
GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	09-27 15:22
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+3	$2	98¢	$2	+$0	10-08 07:46
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	No	+2	$2	97¢	$2	$0	10-04 15:37
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$2	97¢	$2	+$0	09-29 14:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	98	$932	473	473	+0	No	+$2	09-15 10:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	50	$445	383	383	+0	open	—	08-18 15:18
New pandemic in 2026?	56	$428	236	226	+10	open	—	10-07 02:25
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	72	$422	249	202	+46	No	+$1	10-04 19:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	82	$381	198	197	+1	open	—	10-26 06:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	66	$348	175	175	+0	No	$0	09-15 10:04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	52	$335	169	169	+0	open	—	10-16 15:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	54	$288	358	193	+165	No	-$83	09-15 12:56
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	49	$270	292	286	+6	Yes	+$15	09-04 16:26
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	31	$263	146	139	+7	open	—	10-25 02:06
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	46	$246	160	87	+73	No	$0	09-17 15:47
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	39	$243	135	124	+11	open	—	10-23 12:14
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	35	$240	131	130	+1	open	—	10-05 19:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	44	$238	120	119	+1	No	$0	09-03 16:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	37	$237	133	121	+12	No	+$1	09-19 16:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	43	$225	319	194	+125	Yes	+$73	09-10 18:35
Fed rate hike in 2026?	39	$214	180	171	+9	Yes	+$5	09-11 13:59
Trump out as President before 2027?	31	$211	120	105	+15	open	—	10-16 12:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	30	$210	105	105	+0	No	+$0	07-16 19:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	64	$206	104	103	+1	open	—	10-26 06:34
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	46	$203	104	104	+0	No	+$0	08-21 09:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	40	$198	113	106	+7	No	+$1	08-18 10:31
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	8	$190	267	267	+0	No	+$182	07-17 20:17
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	33	$140	72	71	+0	No	$0	08-28 03:15
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	9	$134	89	49	+40	No	$0	07-22 21:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	24	$130	127	45	+82	open	—	10-26 01:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	22	$117	90	45	+45	Yes	+$7	07-17 20:05
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	15	$115	75	67	+8	open	—	10-07 00:31
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	20	$113	63	62	+1	open	—	09-03 01:06
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	16	$112	60	54	+6	No	+$0	08-20 17:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 14:23:09	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x693fd5…
10-26 14:22:15	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3345e5…
10-26 09:55:54	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe282c5…
10-26 06:34:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3f3517…
10-26 06:34:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf5430c…
10-26 06:28:38	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x876dd1…
10-26 06:28:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x04aadf…
10-26 06:27:15	Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc86650…
10-26 06:25:12	Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x525aa4…
10-26 06:24:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1caa98…
10-26 06:24:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xc02109…
10-26 06:24:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x167a4e…
10-26 06:23:05	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x399079…
10-26 06:21:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x81de9f…
10-26 06:19:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x833bf9…
10-26 06:18:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3c3db4…
10-26 06:17:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x72273b…
10-26 06:16:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc3e9f5…
10-26 01:47:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x3b425c…
10-26 00:34:00	Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x860dbf…
10-25 22:11:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x3b2c80…
10-25 22:10:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$0	0x9f2c9b…
10-25 20:21:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x532ba8…
10-25 18:04:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x390d34…
10-25 07:36:06	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0615de…
10-25 02:06:27	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8253b3…
10-24 07:43:59	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xf63141…
10-24 07:17:53	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xa1905c…
10-24 07:17:47	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcd7a84…
10-24 07:17:41	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x167e67…
10-24 07:15:45	ECB rate cut in 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc78725…
10-24 02:22:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6650b7…
10-24 01:19:30	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xda6b89…
10-23 20:21:50	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd2354a…
10-23 20:13:51	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb1b339…
10-23 17:34:23	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Maranhão?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1dc172…
10-23 16:31:44	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x97424d…
10-23 16:17:35	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3423db…
10-23 12:52:38	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6e4906…
10-23 12:52:15	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x578a03…
10-23 12:48:23	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Roraima?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2cd855…
10-23 12:45:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x27f953…
10-23 12:45:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0cc4d1…
10-23 12:45:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xabdbc8…
10-23 12:39:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2db39c…
10-23 12:14:21	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x84690a…
10-23 07:00:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x253ba7…
10-23 06:56:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xb304e7…
10-23 06:53:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x49c0d2…
10-23 06:52:11	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4b4477…
10-22 22:10:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0xd14a3e…
10-22 21:34:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x86cc2f…
10-22 20:42:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xbcaf62…
10-22 19:08:29	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3d41aa…
10-22 19:07:05	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc804b0…
10-22 18:06:05	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe17e5f…
10-22 17:49:42	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6fb14c…
10-22 17:49:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc69851…
10-22 15:03:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x68d701…
10-22 15:02:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0c9a8d…
10-22 09:24:50	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xacda69…
10-22 08:39:33	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x3926ed…
10-22 07:14:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1a6b86…
10-22 06:46:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x33836a…
10-22 06:40:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x10dfd3…
10-22 06:37:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb47020…
10-22 06:27:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x12155d…
10-22 06:27:38	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xc4d4c3…
10-22 05:58:53	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x989f18…
10-22 04:12:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2d3f5d…
10-22 04:11:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x68f099…
10-21 19:17:20	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x9c9a3f…
10-21 19:17:12	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0851a2…
10-21 19:11:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xeeae8f…
10-21 19:11:45	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfc04df…
10-21 19:11:39	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x77d7c5…
10-21 18:46:36	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x22d41b…
10-21 17:45:48	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0xd1573c…
10-21 13:55:48	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x70a4fe…
10-21 13:54:26	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Sergipe?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x853490…
10-21 05:29:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xdaf9cd…
10-20 23:41:02	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x10bf0d…
10-20 22:49:29	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xf4fd36…
10-20 22:49:29	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x0ddc4d…
10-20 22:49:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xc935a5…
10-20 22:49:26	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x80bb83…
10-20 19:58:56	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x0af5bc…
10-20 19:40:44	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbabfe6…
10-20 19:22:30	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2d9755…
10-20 17:58:24	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x53b7d8…
10-20 17:42:02	France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x4ff2c5…
10-20 14:59:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xb2db1b…
10-20 14:22:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x90ccf3…
10-20 12:45:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xb44919…
10-20 12:36:00	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc14d05…
10-20 12:35:06	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3bef22…
10-20 09:03:32	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x0fe838…
10-20 08:57:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x649624…
10-20 08:39:53	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x486c16…
10-19 22:51:36	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc5fa97…