Realized P&L
+$168
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
77.9%
Resolved
5,930
Trades
14,193
lifetime
Volume
$94.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$281
19 positions
First seen
2026-04-24
last 05-15 11:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Other
94% 64% +$138
Politics
4% 81% +$229
Crypto
1% 67% -$209
Tech
0% 78% +$18
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$8
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? No +98 $98 100¢ $98 +$0 05-08 04:02
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +38 $26 100¢ $38 +$12 05-12 07:40
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +43 $21 74¢ $32 +$11 05-06 21:11
Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +18 $18 100¢ $18 +$0 05-03 16:30
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? No +12 $11 99¢ $12 +$1 05-06 13:50
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No — +12 $12 100¢ $12 $0 05-06 15:34
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +19 $10 56¢ $11 +$1 05-07 22:33
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-03 21:54
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? No +9 $9 99¢ $9 $0 05-03 20:34
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +8 $8 100¢ $8 $0 05-03 17:57
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +28 $26 27¢ $8 -$19 05-12 07:40
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-14 20:04
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-05 13:46
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-08 08:35
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 05-10 10:56
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +3 $3 100¢ $3 +$0 05-05 13:37
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +15 $6 16¢ $2 -$4 05-10 15:17
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No +5 $2 26¢ $1 $0 05-10 07:02
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? No +6 $2 4¢ $0 -$1 05-13 08:14