Cohort size
65
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
54
cohort wallets
24h volume
$485.1K
16,199 trades
Buy / Sell
$469K
/
$16K
Markets touched
1,418
Mispricings
5
≥3¢ delta in 24h
Active markets
51,744
snap 09:40 · trades 09:40
Cohort equity curve
last 90 days · cumulative realized P&L summed across all cohort wallets · scoped to Crypto · +$162,671Mispricings — smart money's avg fill vs current mid
last 24h · markets where the cohort bought at a meaningful discount to the current price| Market | Side | Avg buy | Now | Delta | $ flow | Wallets | Last buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | NO | 46¢ | 99¢ | +52.8¢ | $654 | 5 | 05-09 09:25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET | NO | 57¢ | 96¢ | +39.7¢ | $544 | 12 | 05-09 09:15 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET | NO | 36¢ | 74¢ | +37.4¢ | $479 | 9 | 05-09 09:40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | YES | 93¢ | 99¢ | +6.3¢ | $4,507 | 11 | 05-09 09:40 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | YES | 93¢ | 99¢ | +5.7¢ | $719 | 2 | 05-09 09:40 |
Top wallets — 30D realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Resolved (30D) | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc whalebothotnew | +$10,169 | 56.6% | 2393 | $231,614 | 05-09 09:35 |
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 whalehotnew | +$10,021 | 57.3% | 2610 | $400,414 | 05-09 09:35 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 whalehotnew | +$8,589 | 77.3% | 2076 | $599,767 | 05-09 09:40 |
| General-School 0x01ca…200d hotnew | +$8,445 | 67.0% | 21 | $14,390 | 05-05 08:01 |
| Menacing-Tax-Men 0x8410…228c hotnew | +$6,101 | 90.9% | 9 | $26,462 | 05-09 04:44 |
Newly resolved (last 72h)
markets that just settled where cohort wallets had positions — smart money just got paid (or burned)| Market | Winner | Resolved | Cohort wallets | Cohort vol | Cohort P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-09 06:30 | 4 | $231 | +$16 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-09 06:30 | 1 | $2 | +$2 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-09 06:30 | 1 | $501 | +$5 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-09 06:30 | 1 | $7 | +$0 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-09 06:30 | 1 | $33 | $-33 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-09 06:30 | 1 | $10 | +$8 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-09 06:30 | 2 | $134 | +$13 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 05-09 06:25 | 1 | $0 | $-0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 05-09 06:25 | 8 | $612 | $-419 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Up | 05-09 06:25 | 3 | $47 | +$2 |
Smart-money flow (last 1H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | 12 | $4,535 | -$4 | +$4,531 | 30 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | 2 | $3,474 | — | +$3,474 | 3 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | 5 | $2,747 | -$15 | +$2,732 | 11 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | 1 | $2,291 | — | +$2,291 | 2 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | 8 | $853 | -$28 | +$824 | 57 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET | 9 | $828 | -$33 | +$795 | 63 | 26¢ |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | 6 | $763 | -$13 | +$750 | 26 | 1¢ |
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | 2 | $719 | — | +$719 | 2 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET | 13 | $584 | -$39 | +$544 | 34 | 4¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | 4 | $463 | — | +$463 | 5 | 90¢ |
Cohort heatmap — top markets × P&L tier (24h)
cell = YES-buy share · opacity = $ size · full heatmap →| Market | 🎯 Top 1% | 🏆 Top 5% | ✅ Top 10% | Median | Below median | ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 🔻 Bottom 5% | 💀 Bottom 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | — | — | — | 0% | — | — | — | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? | — | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | — | 100% | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? | — | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? | — | — | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? | 15% | 15% | 10% | 85% | 77% | 34% | 83% | 70% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | — | 0% | 0% | 97% | 25% | 0% | 0% | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? | — | 11% | 3% | 8% | 14% | 6% | 100% | 0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? | — | — | — | 0% | 100% | — | — | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? | 97% | 0% | 98% | 40% | 91% | — | 0% | 79% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | — | — | — | 0% | 100% | 100% | — | — |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume · SMI = top-1% YES-buy share − overall YES-buy share (last 7d)| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | SMI | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 1.3 / 1.4¢ | 98.6 / 98.7¢ | $5,821,653 | +80.1¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? ↗ | 0.3 / 0.4¢ | 99.6 / 99.7¢ | $353,891 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $183,709 | — | May 09 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? ↗ | 35.0 / 36.0¢ | 64.0 / 65.0¢ | $163,556 | +75.7¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $153,580 | — | May 09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $145,457 | — | May 09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? ↗ | 0.8 / 0.9¢ | 99.1 / 99.2¢ | $140,747 | -17.2¢ | May 09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? ↗ | 99.2 / 99.4¢ | 0.6 / 0.8¢ | $140,202 | +2.9¢ | May 09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $99,501 | — | May 09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? ↗ | 77.0 / 78.0¢ | 22.0 / 23.0¢ | $90,895 | -51.8¢ | May 09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | 13.0 / 14.0¢ | 86.0 / 87.0¢ | $84,934 | +38.6¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? ↗ | 2.6 / 2.8¢ | 97.2 / 97.4¢ | $81,195 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? ↗ | 4.9 / 5.0¢ | 95.0 / 95.1¢ | $80,451 | — | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 60.0 / 61.3¢ | 38.7 / 40.0¢ | $77,611 | -55.7¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $71,399 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | 6.0 / 7.0¢ | 93.0 / 94.0¢ | $69,656 | +95.8¢ | Jun 01 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? ↗ | 61.0 / 62.0¢ | 38.0 / 39.0¢ | $63,161 | +13.6¢ | May 09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.0¢ | 99.0 / 99.1¢ | $55,338 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $49,854 | — | May 09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? ↗ | 1.6 / 1.7¢ | 98.3 / 98.4¢ | $49,715 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? ↗ | 7.0 / 9.0¢ | 91.0 / 93.0¢ | $47,405 | — | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 82.0 / 83.0¢ | 17.0 / 18.0¢ | $45,833 | — | Jul 01 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? ↗ | 2.1 / 2.2¢ | 97.8 / 97.9¢ | $45,540 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? ↗ | 3.7 / 4.0¢ | 96.0 / 96.3¢ | $44,195 | -16.3¢ | May 11 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9? ↗ | — / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / —¢ | $44,123 | — | May 09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | 17.0 / 19.0¢ | 81.0 / 83.0¢ | $43,170 | +61.2¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? ↗ | 7.0 / 8.0¢ | 92.0 / 93.0¢ | $40,532 | — | May 11 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? ↗ | 0.8 / 1.1¢ | 98.9 / 99.2¢ | $39,188 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 25.0 / 26.0¢ | 74.0 / 75.0¢ | $37,312 | — | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | 51.0 / 52.0¢ | 48.0 / 49.0¢ | $36,746 | -6.4¢ | Jun 01 |