Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
open
Total volume
$1,012
$1 in 24h
Trades
55
Unique wallets
23
Liquidity
$684
Latest YES mid
84¢
Latest NO mid
16¢
End date
2026-02-28
First seen
2026-06-01
last 06-19 18:27
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+15.6¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $270
vs crowd: 84% YES on $587)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $325 | $26 | +$299 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $164 | $22 | +$142 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $3 | $21 | $17 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $2 | $22 | $20 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $270 | — | +$270 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $104 | $41 | +$63 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | $8 | $8 |
| Median | 1 | $110 | — | +$110 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $14 | $14 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $5 | $1 | +$4 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 7 | $6 | $28 | $22 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | +289 | $270 | $270 | 2 | 06-19 15:23 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +181 | $50 | $50 | 3 | 06-12 21:14 |
| Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | +128 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 06-12 17:49 |
| Negligible-Research-Fatherinlaw 0x816b…9ec7 | Yes | +111 | $110 | $110 | 2 | 06-19 18:27 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +100 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-19 18:27 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +95 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | +55 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 06-18 20:46 |
| Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | +30 | $1 | $1 | 4 | 06-19 18:12 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | +30 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | No | +23 | $15 | $15 | 3 | 06-12 19:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-18 20:46 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-09 00:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xbe0e…d429 | No | +20 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +3 | $0 | $4 | 3 | 06-14 11:45 |
| Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-01 21:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 18:27:34 | Negligible-Research-Fatherinlaw 0x816b…9ec7 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xbdaabc… |
| 06-19 18:27:34 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbdaabc… |
| 06-19 18:12:34 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 90 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x304a2a… |
| 06-19 18:12:34 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x304a2a… |
| 06-19 18:12:34 | Negligible-Research-Fatherinlaw 0x816b…9ec7 | Yes | BUY | 101 | 99¢ | $100 | 0x304a2a… |
| 06-19 15:23:35 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 99¢ | $12 | 0xb8dd6b… |
| 06-19 15:23:35 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 12 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb8dd6b… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 67 | 8¢ | $5 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 276 | 93¢ | $258 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | (anonymous) 0xbe0e…d429 | No | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | BUY | 30 | 9¢ | $3 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-19 15:15:23 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 95¢ | $36 | 0xf4b641… |
| 06-18 20:46:22 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x043e85… |
| 06-18 20:46:22 | (anonymous) 0x6ac2…99bf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x043e85… |
| 06-18 20:46:04 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0x07ae07… |
| 06-18 20:46:04 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 70 | 19¢ | $13 | 0x07ae07… |
| 06-18 20:46:04 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x07ae07… |
| 06-14 11:45:25 | Playful-Badger 0x86ba…3694 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x7746c2… |
| 06-14 11:45:25 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 3 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x7746c2… |
| 06-12 21:15:43 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x40dfa2… |
| 06-12 21:15:43 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 68¢ | $7 | 0x40dfa2… |
| 06-12 21:14:06 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x83679e… |
| 06-12 21:14:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x83679e… |
| 06-12 19:42:52 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | SELL | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x3edb74… |
| 06-12 19:42:52 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x3edb74… |
| 06-12 19:38:27 | (anonymous) 0x0c47…37e8 | No | SELL | 9 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x8ff02b… |
| 06-12 19:38:27 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 9 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x8ff02b… |
| 06-12 19:37:39 | Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | No | BUY | 9 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x771825… |
| 06-12 19:37:39 | (anonymous) 0x0c47…37e8 | No | SELL | 9 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x771825… |
| 06-12 19:18:01 | Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | No | BUY | 7 | 65¢ | $4 | 0x64e1b6… |
| 06-12 19:18:01 | Attentive-Context 0x2698…2941 | No | SELL | 7 | 65¢ | $4 | 0x64e1b6… |
| 06-12 19:17:25 | (anonymous) 0x0c47…37e8 | No | SELL | 7 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xb689ad… |
| 06-12 19:17:25 | Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | No | BUY | 7 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xb689ad… |
| 06-12 18:03:33 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 59¢ | $6 | 0x0f8c22… |
| 06-12 18:03:33 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 12 | 60¢ | $7 | 0x0f8c22… |
| 06-12 18:03:33 | Attentive-Context 0x2698…2941 | No | BUY | 7 | 61¢ | $4 | 0x0f8c22… |
| 06-12 18:03:33 | Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | SELL | 244 | 58¢ | $142 | 0x0f8c22… |
| 06-12 18:03:33 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 216 | 42¢ | $91 | 0x0f8c22… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | SELL | 15 | 33¢ | $5 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 7 | 27¢ | $2 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | Villainous-Volatility 0xc91b…93bd | Yes | BUY | 128 | 32¢ | $41 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | (anonymous) 0x0c47…37e8 | No | BUY | 25 | 61¢ | $15 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 28 | 72¢ | $20 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-12 17:49:54 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 32¢ | $17 | 0xc5ef3c… |
| 06-09 12:09:09 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x8e52ab… |
| 06-09 12:09:09 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 25¢ | $7 | 0x8e52ab… |
| 06-09 12:09:09 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x8e52ab… |
| 06-09 00:30:45 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0x21a710… |
| 06-09 00:30:45 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x21a710… |
| 06-09 00:30:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 27¢ | $22 | 0x21a710… |
| 06-09 00:30:16 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 27¢ | $22 | 0xe6fede… |
| 06-09 00:30:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 27¢ | $22 | 0xe6fede… |
| 06-01 21:51:57 | Ecstatic-Setting 0x9ee5…ec3d | No | SELL | 2 | 52¢ | $1 | 0x1899bc… |
| 06-01 21:51:57 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | No | BUY | 2 | 52¢ | $1 | 0x1899bc… |