Unsightly-Young — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$147

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

5,969

Trades

107,020

lifetime

Volume

$2.56M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$837

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 07:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 281 days

Categories

Other

68% 39% -$11,813

Politics

15% 37% -$801

Sports

15% 37% -$9,919

Crypto

2% 35% +$898

Tech

0% 40% +$501

Pop-Culture

0% 42% -$178

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 453 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-300	-$123	97¢	$-291	-$168	05-13 08:37
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	-1,249	-$65	7¢	$-89	-$24	07-29 20:22
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+100	$60	83¢	$83	+$23	10-28 06:24
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	-441	-$126	12¢	$-55	+$71	08-09 20:15
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	+144	$87	36¢	$51	-$36	10-24 13:52
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	+299	$88	12¢	$37	-$51	08-24 14:11
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	No	+31	-$8	94¢	$29	+$37	06-09 11:37
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	+273	$93	11¢	$29	-$64	10-18 16:29
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+35	-$78	70¢	$24	+$103	10-25 16:26
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	No	+166	$21	12¢	$21	$0	09-18 16:28
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?	Yes	+84	$21	24¢	$21	$0	10-27 19:56
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-272	-$71	5¢	$-14	+$57	06-25 20:22
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+18	$6	72¢	$13	+$7	10-07 05:13
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+300	$12	4¢	$12	+$0	10-28 03:46
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$100	20¢	$10	-$89	10-17 12:25
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+300	-$6	3¢	$10	+$16	10-16 16:31
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	+58	$11	15¢	$9	-$2	10-25 14:20
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	-709	-$248	1¢	$-7	+$241	10-27 13:11
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	+300	$159	2¢	$5	-$153	09-06 17:05
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	+81	-$14	6¢	$4	+$18	09-04 13:57
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-96	-$34	4¢	$-4	+$30	07-18 14:17
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?	Yes	+130	$7	3¢	$4	-$3	10-23 14:58
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	-119	-$4	2¢	$-2	+$2	09-16 10:19
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+2	-$3	99¢	$2	+$5	08-01 01:39
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	+31	$184	6¢	$2	-$182	10-20 15:12
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	+100	$3	2¢	$2	-$1	05-05 14:07
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+299	$3	1¢	$2	-$2	10-20 08:29
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-172	-$20	1¢	$-1	+$19	10-27 13:12
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+1	$1	99¢	$1	$0	07-24 13:39
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	+1	$2	85¢	$1	-$1	10-17 18:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1,080	$53.8K	58,681	58,178	+503	Yes	+$394	03-08 21:57
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	994	$27.9K	35,341	35,606	-265	No	-$113	01-13 16:37
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	375	$27.2K	36,667	36,509	+158	Yes	-$742	02-28 19:46
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	963	$21.8K	29,649	29,720	-72	Yes	+$757	01-13 16:57
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	678	$20.4K	25,686	24,719	+967	No	+$491	05-19 20:07
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 560 579	917	$20.2K	24,643	23,820	+823	No	-$44	01-13 16:50
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	615	$18.4K	23,063	24,870	-1,808	Yes	+$858	04-07 07:36
will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	490	$15.2K	19,792	19,787	+5	Yes	+$333	03-16 00:21
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	448	$15.0K	22,646	23,194	-549	No	+$335	03-08 20:55
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	355	$15.0K	17,837	17,835	+2	Yes	-$123	05-10 17:13
italy nordio reform referendum passes	289	$14.2K	14,148	13,940	+209	No	+$182	03-23 14:00
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	267	$14.1K	14,675	13,943	+732	No	+$534	02-22 11:40
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	240	$12.8K	14,743	14,742	+2	No	+$162	05-31 19:13
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	255	$12.8K	13,926	13,408	+518	No	+$370	07-16 02:51
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	360	$12.8K	17,593	16,391	+1,202	Yes	+$459	07-17 23:53
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 520 539	540	$12.6K	30,601	30,254	+347	No	+$305	01-13 07:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	194	$11.8K	11,403	11,401	+2	No	+$98	09-29 16:51
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	421	$11.1K	15,395	15,210	+186	No	+$442	03-16 00:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	165	$10.7K	12,872	12,662	+210	No	+$33	05-29 15:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	173	$10.5K	10,961	10,742	+219	No	+$193	09-30 07:55
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	340	$10.5K	22,380	22,601	-222	No	+$19	06-03 21:14
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	627	$10.4K	20,896	21,481	-585	No	+$257	04-14 00:38
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	201	$10.2K	9,575	9,274	+301	No	+$234	06-09 22:42
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	264	$10.1K	16,269	16,172	+97	Yes	+$323	03-03 19:47
will the united states win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	182	$9.5K	17,719	15,630	+2,089	No	+$229	02-21 04:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	200	$9.4K	13,283	13,202	+81	Yes	-$379	09-09 08:48
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	285	$9.2K	11,262	11,259	+3	Yes	+$87	04-10 14:13
will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	264	$9.2K	10,207	10,206	+1	Yes	+$84	02-22 10:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	101	$8.3K	9,636	9,218	+419	Yes	+$29	05-08 18:02
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	221	$8.1K	13,876	12,851	+1,025	Yes	-$246	02-19 23:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:55:52	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 28?	Yes	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0x2d2778…
10-28 07:54:26	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	29	24¢	$7	0xfe6d48…
10-28 07:54:25	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	95	24¢	$23	0xb80610…
10-28 07:54:23	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	176	24¢	$42	0xefb092…
10-28 07:54:10	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Yes	SELL	28	36¢	$10	0x6a9551…
10-28 07:51:46	Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0xb308cd…
10-28 07:35:17	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	299	21¢	$63	0x249c33…
10-28 07:34:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$4	0x66149b…
10-28 07:05:05	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x541515…
10-28 07:01:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x84bdd5…
10-28 07:00:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb48b93…
10-28 07:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xabdaac…
10-28 06:32:44	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	No	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x3d1d26…
10-28 06:24:31	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xd4512d…
10-28 06:22:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	No	SELL	59	85¢	$50	0xdfd9e9…
10-28 06:22:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	78	15¢	$12	0xbb6a19…
10-28 06:22:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0x90288e…
10-28 06:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	38	14¢	$5	0x836c74…
10-28 06:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x2ff730…
10-28 06:05:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x58600d…
10-28 06:05:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	29	98¢	$28	0xe246b3…
10-28 06:04:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa6b61d…
10-28 06:04:05	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 6°C on October 28?	No	BUY	18	65¢	$12	0x90f506…
10-28 05:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0xabc43c…
10-28 05:57:07	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0xd4a345…
10-28 05:56:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x2127af…
10-28 05:55:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x1bd3ca…
10-28 05:53:35	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	39	97¢	$37	0x441533…
10-28 05:35:28	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 8°C on October 28?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6a29cb…
10-28 05:30:07	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	9¢	$1	0x422153…
10-28 05:23:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	27	27¢	$7	0x299a09…
10-28 05:22:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0xcd55b6…
10-28 05:14:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	76	5¢	$4	0x049ad2…
10-28 05:07:40	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x13ca8a…
10-28 05:07:07	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	177	3¢	$5	0xfe3747…
10-28 04:52:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	SELL	27	76¢	$20	0x958aee…
10-28 04:52:34	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	SELL	54	76¢	$41	0x989c1e…
10-28 04:48:31	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	48	18¢	$9	0xc5946a…
10-28 04:45:56	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xd56308…
10-28 04:43:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x0717d3…
10-28 04:38:49	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0x8170d2…
10-28 04:36:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0x42804f…
10-28 04:35:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x2d662b…
10-28 04:33:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x5f7b59…
10-28 04:30:41	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0xc32c6e…
10-28 04:23:29	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xf8590e…
10-28 04:21:10	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	237	19¢	$45	0x635ea6…
10-28 04:11:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	No	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0x2f9a0d…
10-28 04:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 28?	No	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0x12e97e…
10-28 03:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x4214d1…
10-28 03:46:24	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0x4298b9…
10-28 03:34:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x3c2f9e…
10-28 03:31:31	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0xadcaf6…
10-28 03:31:31	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	24	19¢	$5	0xa1f9dd…
10-28 03:31:31	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	23	19¢	$4	0xa08e90…
10-28 03:31:31	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x719b11…
10-28 03:31:31	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	24	19¢	$5	0x084348…
10-28 03:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb5416b…
10-28 03:17:06	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$2	0x00f7c2…
10-28 03:16:00	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x4a2907…
10-28 03:10:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xca067b…
10-28 03:10:12	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 28?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xc9e236…
10-28 03:00:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xd5715a…
10-28 03:00:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x6c5ce4…
10-28 03:00:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	83	26¢	$21	0x4066bc…
10-28 02:51:20	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0xfca4aa…
10-28 02:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0xe5d8c1…
10-28 02:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	87	21¢	$18	0x2a6589…
10-28 02:39:08	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xdeb360…
10-28 02:39:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x64161b…
10-28 02:37:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xdc332c…
10-28 02:37:53	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x7c76ee…
10-28 02:34:02	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xbe2c82…
10-28 02:33:53	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	21	12¢	$3	0x505197…
10-28 02:24:59	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	No	BUY	59	62¢	$37	0x2f1b73…
10-28 02:15:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x8078b6…
10-28 02:12:29	Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	222	27¢	$60	0xb37bd1…
10-28 02:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 28?	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xdbbbf8…
10-28 02:08:45	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	22	71¢	$16	0xd34731…
10-28 02:08:18	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0x278a3d…
10-28 02:05:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	34	26¢	$9	0xc7a31b…
10-28 02:05:33	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	72	22¢	$16	0x9033fd…
10-28 02:02:44	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	23	25¢	$6	0xf82334…
10-28 02:02:33	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x96005b…
10-28 02:01:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0xad9404…
10-28 02:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 29?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x3be117…
10-28 02:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	128	10¢	$13	0x66979a…
10-28 02:00:17	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?	No	SELL	47	39¢	$18	0x1d9295…
10-28 01:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on October 29?	No	BUY	97	85¢	$82	0x68af3b…
10-28 01:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x00d9e9…
10-28 01:47:45	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	257	29¢	$75	0x6ac79b…
10-28 01:26:35	Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	23	72¢	$17	0x193d4c…
10-28 01:24:11	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xa8f280…
10-28 01:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x43e4c3…
10-28 01:18:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xa7352b…
10-28 01:17:03	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0x332ad3…
10-28 01:17:03	Will Tatyana Ali be eliminated in week 7 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x04baa2…
10-28 01:12:21	Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	106	38¢	$40	0x8ff80c…
10-28 01:11:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	57	21¢	$12	0xf8537e…
10-28 01:10:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	69	21¢	$14	0xed1f53…