Realized P&L
-$217
Unrealized P&L
-$11
Hit rate
0.0%
Resolved
3
Trades
845
lifetime
Volume
$26.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$1.02K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 14:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Other
59% 0% $-94
Politics
23% 0% $-123
Tech
11%
Crypto
7%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -103 $-94 90¢ $-93 +$2 06-02 21:21
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes -97 $-71 75¢ $-72 $-1 06-07 03:28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T No -74 $-69 96¢ $-71 $-2 06-06 19:47
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +70 $67 96¢ $67 +$1 05-28 22:30
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No +60 $59 99¢ $60 +$0 06-01 18:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +60 $51 86¢ $52 +$0 06-06 19:46
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No -60 $-54 86¢ $-52 +$2 06-01 18:23
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No +58 $52 89¢ $51 $-1 06-09 00:36
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No +52 $50 98¢ $51 +$1 06-05 16:41
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +60 $51 84¢ $51 $-1 06-02 06:12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No +50 $48 98¢ $49 +$1 06-07 19:18
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +50 $46 94¢ $47 +$1 06-06 09:51
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No +40 $39 99¢ $40 +$0 06-01 15:04
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No +40 $39 99¢ $40 +$1 06-08 03:37
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +40 $39 97¢ $39 +$0 06-06 19:45
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? Yes +60 $52 59¢ $35 $-16 06-09 14:11
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No +34 $34 99¢ $34 +$0 05-31 18:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No +30 $30 99¢ $30 +$0 06-01 15:05
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? No +30 $26 88¢ $26 +$0 06-04 13:01
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No +20 $20 99¢ $20 +$0 06-02 20:17
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +20 $19 94¢ $19 $-0 06-07 07:03
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +20 $18 88¢ $18 $-0 05-29 05:41