Realized P&L
+$105
Unrealized P&L
+$79
Hit rate
91.2%
Resolved
648
Trades
1,991
lifetime
Volume
$61.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$5.24K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 21:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 153 days
Categories
Other
53% 88% +$40
Politics
27% 90% +$201
Tech
14% 82% +$46
Crypto
6% 81% -$149
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$1
Sports
0% 25% -$34
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -693 -$641 96¢ $-667 -$26 06-25 20:57
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +558 $501 94¢ $528 +$27 10-11 23:10
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +420 $378 91¢ $382 +$4 10-17 22:39
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +340 $309 94¢ $321 +$12 10-08 03:43
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +275 $246 89¢ $244 -$2 10-05 07:24
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +230 $208 95¢ $218 +$10 09-15 04:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -213 -$213 96¢ $-204 +$8 08-19 19:14
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +199 $183 97¢ $193 +$10 10-21 06:58
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +190 $180 96¢ $182 +$2 10-06 20:52
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +200 $182 90¢ $181 -$1 10-05 21:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -184 -$174 98¢ $-180 -$7 06-27 12:52
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +200 $177 88¢ $177 $0 10-07 02:00
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No +150 $136 96¢ $144 +$7 10-04 19:11
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? No +150 $139 95¢ $142 +$4 10-08 18:16
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +158 $141 86¢ $137 -$4 10-23 20:42
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +128 $121 95¢ $121 +$0 10-24 05:13
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 No +146 $140 82¢ $120 -$20 10-07 05:57
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +120 $102 97¢ $116 +$14 09-13 12:30
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No +110 $104 96¢ $106 +$2 10-16 22:37
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +100 $90 98¢ $98 +$8 10-19 19:11
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No +110 $99 89¢ $98 -$2 10-21 19:21
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $96 97¢ $97 +$1 10-04 20:35
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743 No +100 $88 97¢ $97 +$9 09-05 22:10
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +95 $87 91¢ $86 $0 10-05 02:38
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No -130 -$92 62¢ $-80 +$12 06-27 12:50
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $74 94¢ $76 +$1 10-26 16:26
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +80 $60 84¢ $67 +$6 10-20 11:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +60 $58 98¢ $59 +$1 10-08 12:07
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +68 $55 87¢ $59 +$4 10-19 19:13
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No -60 -$54 95¢ $-57 -$3 06-01 18:23