Realized P&L (7d)
-$36
Unrealized P&L
+$158
Hit rate
34.1%
Resolved (7d)
3
Trades (7d)
68
2,052 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$4.87K
$66.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$4.75K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 20:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 154 days
Categories
Other
51% 88% +$37
Politics
30% 90% +$201
Tech
14% 82% +$46
Crypto
5% 81% -$149
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$1
Sports
0% 25% -$34
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,367 $1,264 100¢ $1.4K +$98 10-28 11:44
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -693 -$641 96¢ $-662 -$21 06-25 20:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -213 -$213 97¢ $-206 +$7 08-19 19:14
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -184 -$174 98¢ $-180 -$6 06-27 12:52
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +147 $132 92¢ $135 +$2 10-27 20:21
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +131 $124 96¢ $126 +$2 10-27 20:17
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +127 $111 96¢ $123 +$12 10-27 20:26
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +128 $121 96¢ $122 +$1 10-24 05:13
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No +128 $110 94¢ $121 +$11 10-27 20:17
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +122 $105 95¢ $116 +$11 10-27 20:21
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 No +146 $140 78¢ $115 -$25 10-07 05:57
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +118 $92 94¢ $111 +$19 10-27 20:21
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No +110 $104 97¢ $107 +$3 10-16 22:37
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +116 $103 88¢ $102 -$1 10-27 20:21
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No +110 $99 90¢ $100 +$0 10-21 19:21
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $96 97¢ $97 +$1 10-04 20:35
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743 No +100 $88 96¢ $96 +$8 09-05 22:10
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +95 $87 97¢ $92 +$5 10-05 02:38
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +94 $87 92¢ $87 +$0 10-27 20:26
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No -130 -$92 64¢ $-83 +$10 06-27 12:50
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? No +78 $70 94¢ $74 +$3 10-27 20:17
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $74 91¢ $73 -$2 10-26 16:26
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No +75 $65 96¢ $72 +$7 10-27 20:29
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +80 $60 84¢ $67 +$6 10-20 11:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +60 $58 99¢ $60 +$2 10-08 12:07
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No -60 -$54 96¢ $-57 -$3 06-01 18:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? No +60 $56 94¢ $56 +$0 10-08 11:59
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +60 $56 92¢ $55 -$1 10-16 22:35
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No +50 $45 99¢ $50 +$4 10-23 15:10
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026 No +50 $45 96¢ $48 +$2 09-02 11:22