Realized P&L (30d)
-$8
Unrealized P&L
+$19
Hit rate
68.9%
Resolved (30d)
3
Trades (30d)
5
249 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$29
$1.75K lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$292
26 positions
First seen
2026-03-04
last 11-13 15:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 62 days
Categories
Crypto
64% 65% -$132
Other
19% 75% -$21
Politics
11% 100% +$12
Tech
5% 50% -$11
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +24 $15 92¢ $22 +$7 06-12 18:35
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No +17 $15 97¢ $17 +$2 05-25 06:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +16 $15 98¢ $16 +$1 05-25 03:35
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 97¢ $12 +$2 05-25 06:35
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +12 $10 98¢ $12 +$2 05-25 06:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +12 $10 98¢ $12 +$2 05-25 03:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +12 $10 94¢ $11 +$1 05-25 03:35
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? No +12 $10 97¢ $11 +$1 05-25 08:04
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 94¢ $11 +$1 05-25 06:35
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +11 $10 100¢ $11 +$1 05-25 05:06
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +12 $10 98¢ $11 +$1 05-25 06:35
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +12 $10 97¢ $11 +$1 05-27 06:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +12 $10 92¢ $11 +$1 05-25 03:35
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? No +11 $10 99¢ $11 +$1 05-25 03:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +11 $10 99¢ $11 +$1 06-04 03:35
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No +11 $10 96¢ $11 +$1 06-12 18:35
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No +11 $10 99¢ $11 +$1 06-01 06:35
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +11 $10 98¢ $11 +$1 05-25 05:25
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +11 $10 94¢ $11 +$1 05-25 06:35
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No +11 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 05-25 03:35
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 07-01 09:35
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 +$0 05-25 06:35
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No +11 $10 95¢ $10 +$0 07-01 09:35
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No +11 $10 88¢ $10 $0 06-01 12:35
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 $0 11-10 06:35
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 No +40 $10 1¢ $1 -$9 07-02 18:35