Tinted-Sentencing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$502

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.0%

Resolved

Trades

8,774

lifetime

Volume

$3.60M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$411

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 08-11 09:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

79% 75% $-502

Other

19% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	462	$210.9K	142,397	157,612	-15,215	open	—	03-31 17:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	210	$178.0K	145,716	144,036	+1,679	open	—	03-26 14:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	305	$157.5K	123,896	135,523	-11,627	open	—	05-23 18:19
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	447	$153.3K	94,730	80,504	+14,226	open	—	04-15 06:12
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	409	$126.1K	70,474	60,022	+10,452	open	—	03-26 03:36
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	315	$112.4K	87,632	92,231	-4,599	open	—	04-04 20:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	158	$98.5K	90,209	97,957	-7,748	open	—	04-07 19:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	367	$95.5K	51,606	54,806	-3,200	open	—	04-22 15:01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	17	$92.6K	36,854	67,346	-30,492	open	—	07-08 13:52
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	157	$90.8K	62,178	37,549	+24,629	open	—	03-31 22:26
will trump visit china by march 31	109	$85.4K	40,534	46,954	-6,421	open	—	03-25 18:18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	209	$84.4K	72,572	71,667	+905	open	—	05-01 02:14
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	108	$76.2K	42,633	43,866	-1,232	open	—	04-21 20:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	160	$72.4K	38,350	38,349	+0	open	—	03-01 04:22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	239	$70.4K	66,358	70,290	-3,932	open	—	05-01 19:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	194	$69.2K	71,350	28,346	+43,004	open	—	04-19 12:46
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	19	$67.7K	34,667	34,667	+0	open	—	03-06 18:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	83	$66.1K	51,441	57,441	-6,000	open	—	04-18 11:33
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	157	$65.7K	72,808	25,205	+47,603	open	—	05-01 18:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	218	$62.4K	64,285	46,617	+17,668	open	—	04-05 03:12
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	112	$58.9K	58,617	38,655	+19,962	open	—	04-07 19:48
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	157	$54.7K	37,395	34,891	+2,504	open	—	04-17 07:21
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	10	$49.3K	20,178	30,530	-10,352	open	—	02-28 06:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	54	$47.7K	38,905	29,534	+9,371	open	—	04-07 21:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	220	$45.8K	25,297	23,054	+2,244	open	—	03-25 11:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	53	$36.8K	35,525	35,825	-300	open	—	04-08 01:23
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	159	$36.0K	32,836	28,107	+4,729	open	—	04-07 15:57
iran leadership change by march 31	154	$35.3K	22,110	20,947	+1,163	open	—	03-20 00:57
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	188	$33.0K	26,278	25,985	+293	open	—	04-05 04:49
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	25	$32.0K	17,371	17,371	+0	open	—	03-13 18:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 09:20:18	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x7d7e57…
08-11 09:19:39	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0xd18ed6…
08-11 06:57:54	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0x5b0c39…
08-11 04:56:30	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	35	57¢	$20	0x41c55a…
08-10 21:58:04	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xb03e23…
08-10 14:25:07	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	92¢	$118	0x2c941e…
08-10 14:24:55	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	383	96¢	$367	0x54a671…
08-10 14:24:52	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	222	89¢	$197	0xe4365b…
08-10 14:24:45	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	599	89¢	$533	0x860657…
08-10 14:24:36	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x1a0baf…
08-10 14:24:28	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,179	89¢	$4,610	0x418437…
08-10 14:24:13	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,995	94¢	$5,635	0x8987cc…
08-10 10:40:36	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$288	0x639265…
08-10 09:38:27	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$288	0x41960a…
08-10 09:06:22	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$2	0x5844f8…
08-10 08:51:37	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0x27e673…
08-09 08:43:28	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	62	96¢	$60	0xd2e52b…
08-09 02:22:43	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x00cbc9…
08-08 19:25:40	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xf4b2ba…
08-08 19:23:58	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xc039a8…
08-08 13:42:09	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x946cdb…
08-08 13:37:55	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	98	96¢	$94	0x48162d…
08-08 11:23:04	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$55	0x8bd80a…
08-07 14:16:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	1,900	84¢	$1,597	0x31ab7e…
08-07 12:37:31	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	57¢	$13	0x889556…
08-07 00:39:20	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	96¢	$71	0xac62d5…
08-06 22:57:39	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	57¢	$34	0x8e9d3c…
08-06 21:02:21	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x329a5a…
08-06 20:53:47	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x2fba65…
08-06 20:51:00	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x20a18a…
08-06 20:20:02	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x6c5d64…
08-06 16:32:06	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x7a246a…
08-06 16:29:23	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x7da40f…
08-06 15:53:23	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x54de40…
08-06 15:31:30	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x4e713a…
08-06 15:22:50	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xce7a1c…
08-06 15:03:09	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8,000	94¢	$7,520	0x0ba2a2…
08-06 15:03:02	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,034	95¢	$2,882	0xb939a4…
08-06 15:02:48	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,276	96¢	$5,060	0x2bb1ff…
08-06 15:02:44	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	998	96¢	$954	0x88d7ae…
08-06 15:02:44	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x265717…
08-06 15:02:32	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,894	96¢	$4,683	0x63dfec…
08-06 15:02:15	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,929	0x161d9c…
08-06 13:47:05	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x50059d…
08-05 19:50:51	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	700	57¢	$399	0xd4dbe6…
08-05 17:27:00	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0xe1eb48…
08-05 14:07:35	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x441205…
08-04 17:53:29	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	96	73¢	$70	0x55c65a…
08-04 12:26:30	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0xf12c58…
08-03 00:03:54	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x82bbde…
08-02 16:18:21	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	400	57¢	$228	0x3ee056…
08-02 10:25:53	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	76	57¢	$43	0x7279c2…
08-01 13:27:59	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x3dd02b…
08-01 07:28:32	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x36993b…
07-31 21:42:12	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	127	73¢	$93	0x18d10d…
07-30 21:57:56	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	82	73¢	$60	0x4affc2…
07-29 18:52:27	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	11	73¢	$8	0x828f80…
07-29 18:00:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	3,490	34¢	$1,187	0x859807…
07-28 21:14:34	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x8b6fda…
07-28 17:01:26	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	274	73¢	$200	0x64844f…
07-28 11:36:50	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x2df973…
07-28 03:39:24	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0xcfea4c…
07-28 00:55:28	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$5	0xe9f79b…
07-27 17:05:58	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	274	73¢	$200	0xd19995…
07-27 14:16:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x2a458b…
07-27 14:15:58	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x89d442…
07-27 14:15:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xc2426c…
07-27 14:15:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0xeb4e4c…
07-27 14:15:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xcf28eb…
07-27 13:43:52	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	3	73¢	$2	0x682371…
07-27 13:34:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0xbc5b5c…
07-27 13:06:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x5a4538…
07-27 12:53:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	29	34¢	$10	0xcc7dab…
07-27 12:34:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	19	34¢	$6	0xb661a7…
07-27 11:02:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x617cd5…
07-27 09:34:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	280	34¢	$95	0xf08a41…
07-27 07:33:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	620	34¢	$211	0xc30dca…
07-27 07:29:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	440	34¢	$150	0x485435…
07-27 06:59:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x1aaec9…
07-27 06:56:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x54e910…
07-27 06:55:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x23e451…
07-27 06:55:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,148	34¢	$390	0x3090c9…
07-27 03:33:06	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xea62b2…
07-27 02:15:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14,913	12¢	$1,790	0xa7b8b1…
07-25 17:06:58	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	274	73¢	$200	0x05e2d8…
07-25 04:58:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	14¢	$10	0x63e50f…
07-24 22:35:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0x7f1d5f…
07-24 22:34:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xcc8422…
07-24 22:34:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x59c1e5…
07-24 22:34:15	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,169	14¢	$724	0x6eb291…
07-24 07:38:55	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	14¢	$12	0x399491…
07-23 19:18:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$70	0x38e9a4…
07-23 11:15:27	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x6d993b…
07-23 06:49:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	14¢	$11	0x56b208…
07-23 06:48:27	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	778	26¢	$202	0x49237e…
07-22 17:41:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xcc8215…
07-22 12:55:43	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0xb2944e…
07-22 12:54:00	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x891767…
07-22 09:23:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x5868f2…
07-22 06:32:39	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x9e75ad…