Realized P&L
-$15
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
58.2%
Resolved
632
Trades
6,727
lifetime
Volume
$29.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$622
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 09-21 15:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 144 days
Categories
Politics
61% 60% +$489
Other
24% 54% -$49
Sports
13% 52% -$493
Crypto
2% 57% +$37
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
1 active day in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -109 -$98 98¢ $-107 -$9 09-21 15:23
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -89 -$75 94¢ $-84 -$9 09-21 15:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No -82 -$92 90¢ $-74 +$18 09-21 15:21
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -80 -$77 92¢ $-74 +$3 09-21 15:21
Trump out as President before 2027? No -50 -$46 96¢ $-48 -$2 09-21 15:21
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -42 -$34 91¢ $-38 -$4 05-02 18:03
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -27 -$25 98¢ $-27 -$2 05-06 01:42
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No -23 -$21 94¢ $-21 $0 09-21 15:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -22 -$19 96¢ $-21 -$2 05-15 15:41
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo No -20 -$19 97¢ $-19 $0 09-21 15:21
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No -20 -$19 96¢ $-19 +$0 09-21 15:21
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -92 -$25 15¢ $-13 +$12 09-21 15:22
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -13 -$11 92¢ $-12 -$1 09-21 15:22
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No -10 -$9 96¢ $-10 -$1 09-21 15:22
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -10 -$9 96¢ $-9 $0 09-21 15:22
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -14 -$10 66¢ $-9 +$1 09-21 15:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -12 -$3 46¢ $-5 -$3 09-21 15:22
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +70 $10 8¢ $5 -$5 05-06 14:29
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -6 -$9 86¢ $-5 +$4 07-08 20:29
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -27 -$4 14¢ $-4 +$0 09-21 15:23
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -4 -$4 98¢ $-4 +$0 09-21 15:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -3 -$3 82¢ $-3 +$0 09-21 15:23
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No -3 -$2 97¢ $-2 $0 09-21 15:23
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -33 -$5 6¢ $-2 +$3 06-13 02:39
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes -33 -$6 6¢ $-2 +$4 09-21 15:23
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -17 -$2 9¢ $-1 +$0 09-21 15:23
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -8 -$1 17¢ $-1 $0 09-21 15:23
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes -35 -$4 3¢ $-1 +$3 09-21 15:28
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -5 $2 11¢ $-1 -$3 09-21 15:23
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -119 -$4 0¢ $-0 +$4 06-18 11:28