Realized P&L
-$32
Unrealized P&L
+$0
Hit rate
37.0%
Resolved
18
Trades
6,092
lifetime
Volume
$26.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$330
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-24 15:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
61% 33% $-64
Other
23% 78% +$32
Sports
15%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 169 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -99 $-76 82¢ $-80 $-5 06-17 00:00
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No -35 $-33 96¢ $-34 $-1 06-04 03:38
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No +30 $29 100¢ $30 +$1 06-16 07:02
Will Trump resign before 2027? No -29 $-28 97¢ $-29 $-0 06-04 13:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +30 $28 95¢ $29 +$1 06-17 04:54
Trump goes to space in 2026? No -24 $-23 98¢ $-23 $-0 06-12 00:00
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No -23 $-20 87¢ $-20 $-1 06-17 00:00
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +21 $18 92¢ $19 +$1 05-29 10:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +83 $26 18¢ $15 $-11 06-05 16:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +15 $1 99¢ $15 +$14 06-14 23:25
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No +12 $12 100¢ $12 +$0 06-17 00:00
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No -8 $-8 100¢ $-8 $-0 06-02 10:39
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -5 $-4 89¢ $-4 +$0 06-13 20:09
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -4 $-4 84¢ $-3 +$1 06-24 14:59
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +5 $3 68¢ $3 +$0 06-17 00:00
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 06-17 00:00
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -14 $-2 11¢ $-1 +$1 06-13 02:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2 $1 71¢ $1 +$0 06-08 00:03