Realized P&L
-$32
Unrealized P&L
+$3
Hit rate
37.0%
Resolved
18
Trades
6,156
lifetime
Volume
$26.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$347
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-08 20:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
60% 33% $-64
Other
24% 78% +$32
Sports
15%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -99 $-76 86¢ $-85 $-10 06-17 00:00
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -43 $-38 86¢ $-37 +$1 07-06 13:24
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No -35 $-33 98¢ $-35 $-2 06-04 03:38
Will Trump resign before 2027? No -29 $-28 96¢ $-28 +$0 06-04 13:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +50 $16 56¢ $28 +$12 07-04 19:15
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +47 $24 56¢ $26 +$2 07-05 07:41
Trump goes to space in 2026? No -24 $-23 98¢ $-23 $-0 06-12 00:00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -25 $-23 90¢ $-23 $-0 07-06 06:01
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No -23 $-20 92¢ $-22 $-2 06-17 00:00
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -16 $-15 90¢ $-14 +$0 07-04 11:59
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No +13 $12 96¢ $13 +$0 07-06 16:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6 $5 92¢ $5 +$0 07-01 17:43
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +5 $3 82¢ $4 +$1 06-17 00:00
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -14 $-2 12¢ $-2 +$1 06-13 02:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2 $1 84¢ $2 +$0 06-08 00:03
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +2 $1 81¢ $1 +$0 07-06 07:31