Realized P&L
-$32
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
37.0%
Resolved
18
Trades
5,956
lifetime
Volume
$25.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$370
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-08 01:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
60% 33% $-64
Other
23% 78% +$32
Sports
15%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 287 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -50 $-46 96¢ $-47 $-1 06-02 02:26
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No -35 $-33 95¢ $-33 $-1 06-04 03:38
Will Trump resign before 2027? No -29 $-28 96¢ $-28 $-0 06-04 13:50
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No +28 $27 99¢ $28 +$1 06-01 13:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No +82 $19 32¢ $27 +$7 06-08 00:00
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No -25 $-20 96¢ $-24 $-4 05-31 17:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +83 $26 24¢ $20 $-6 06-05 16:09
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +21 $18 90¢ $19 +$0 05-29 10:56
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +20 $19 93¢ $19 $-0 05-28 16:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +20 $11 82¢ $16 +$5 05-29 14:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No +16 $13 94¢ $15 +$2 06-02 11:47
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No -14 $-13 94¢ $-13 +$0 06-04 00:00
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No +13 $13 98¢ $13 +$0 05-29 10:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +20 $10 62¢ $12 +$2 05-29 15:02
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No +12 $12 99¢ $12 +$0 06-02 09:03
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No +10 $8 91¢ $9 +$1 05-28 15:01
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No -8 $-8 97¢ $-8 $-0 06-02 10:39
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +10 $8 78¢ $8 +$0 05-29 05:57
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +8 $8 98¢ $8 +$0 06-08 00:03
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +7 $6 88¢ $6 $-0 05-28 06:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No +4 $2 77¢ $3 +$1 06-04 00:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2 $1 68¢ $1 +$0 06-08 00:03
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes -6 $-1 16¢ $-1 +$0 06-02 21:27