Naive-Climb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

33.9%

Resolved

Trades

701

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 05-21 08:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

36% 55% $-8

Politics

35% 0% $-46

Other

29% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 97 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	114	$3.9K	4,319	3,346	+973	open	—	02-03 02:03
eth updown 15m 1770696000	12	$1.6K	778	778	+0	open	—	02-10 04:14
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.2K	621	621	+0	open	—	01-30 12:10
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$1.2K	623	623	+0	open	—	01-30 14:18
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	11	$878	687	662	+24	open	—	03-05 09:58
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	28	$638	596	436	+160	open	—	03-05 19:16
btc updown 5m 1773062700	17	$531	267	267	+0	open	—	03-09 13:29
bitcoin above 88k on february 6	3	$419	210	210	+0	open	—	02-06 15:37
Iran leadership change by March 13?	9	$380	200	200	+0	open	—	03-15 12:17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	27	$351	719	450	+270	open	—	04-27 04:17
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	7	$290	300	300	+0	open	—	01-15 01:36
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	11	$256	195	215	-20	open	—	01-29 06:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	12	$254	230	240	-10	open	—	04-09 01:35
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	11	$219	176	57	+119	open	—	03-05 18:25
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	7	$196	192	192	+0	open	—	01-29 06:31
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$191	140	140	+0	open	—	01-15 00:50
Iran leadership change by April 30?	7	$165	117	117	+0	open	—	04-09 01:36
btc updown 5m 1772675400	20	$134	91	71	+21	open	—	03-05 01:54
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	15	$126	140	150	-10	open	—	01-29 04:33
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	8	$114	66	66	+0	open	—	03-23 04:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$108	120	170	-50	Yes	$-46	03-23 10:16
bitcoin above 82k on february 5	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-05 02:04
Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	03-02 06:33
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	03-02 06:33
bitcoin above 88k on february 7	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	02-06 15:36
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	03-02 06:33
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	1	$98	0	100	-100	open	—	01-29 00:12
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	10	$92	149	0	+149	open	—	03-23 01:51
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	3	$92	110	0	+110	open	—	03-10 12:08
iran leadership change by march 31	5	$82	120	0	+120	open	—	03-10 01:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 08:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xaca648…
05-21 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xeda41f…
05-21 08:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x9e77e4…
05-21 08:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x2b402f…
05-21 08:10:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x8fc710…
05-21 08:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x47e113…
05-21 08:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc5163a…
05-21 08:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x60e863…
05-21 08:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x9e62b1…
05-21 08:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0x7c04a6…
05-21 08:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x20b1a1…
05-21 08:02:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xdce5eb…
05-21 08:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x59a99e…
05-21 08:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd168af…
05-21 08:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x02a6c8…
05-21 08:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x022f76…
05-20 05:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x220433…
05-14 03:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc9989e…
05-14 03:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1fecf0…
05-14 03:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x81eef3…
05-14 03:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd65d2e…
05-14 03:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x23021f…
05-14 03:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x797ad1…
05-13 02:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x34cdf2…
05-13 02:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xdbe3fd…
05-13 02:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x8a4382…
05-13 02:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa5dcb1…
05-13 02:37:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xc7fa4d…
05-12 16:56:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x3c250e…
05-12 16:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe364ad…
05-12 16:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa7952d…
05-12 16:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8370d4…
05-12 16:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x91c5bb…
05-12 16:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd16107…
05-12 16:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x381abf…
05-12 16:52:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xb3df6e…
05-04 02:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x78ddef…
05-04 02:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x83067e…
05-04 02:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xcdf467…
05-04 02:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x25b61b…
05-04 02:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x6ad7c2…
05-04 02:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb9b26f…
05-04 02:13:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbbd3ab…
05-04 02:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xf2a35d…
05-04 02:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4625c4…
05-04 02:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x7baea4…
05-04 02:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xf16ea1…
05-04 02:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x30ed1d…
05-04 02:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x846428…
05-04 02:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xb41e74…
05-04 02:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0xcac275…
05-04 02:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x7fc8dd…
05-04 01:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf8a600…
05-04 01:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x162ea5…
05-04 01:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x120bc8…
05-04 01:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x65ab77…
05-04 01:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xe8987c…
05-04 01:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x124891…
05-04 01:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0f9ef0…
05-04 01:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa3e8a2…
04-28 23:58:24	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2d12e6…
04-28 23:58:18	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3a6908…
04-28 23:58:12	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xeaa1e5…
04-27 05:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x48514f…
04-27 05:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0xade8a4…
04-27 05:43:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0x98c3a5…
04-27 05:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x0599ce…
04-27 05:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4d76d5…
04-27 05:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x744c57…
04-27 05:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xa32daa…
04-27 05:42:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb592ee…
04-27 04:17:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	SELL	90	40¢	$36	0x4962d7…
04-27 01:26:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x325faa…
04-27 01:25:52	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	SELL	360	41¢	$147	0x819470…
04-17 12:53:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xf3d196…
04-16 04:27:56	btc updown 5m 1776313500	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5dd2ce…
04-16 04:25:14	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1654e0…
04-16 04:25:08	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x262b3b…
04-16 04:24:56	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc7b81d…
04-16 04:24:32	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6205eb…
04-16 04:24:24	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xfd2190…
04-16 04:24:18	btc updown 5m 1776313200	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7fc988…
04-16 02:12:14	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x3b1e28…
04-16 02:12:06	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xa654fd…
04-16 02:11:58	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x79b29b…
04-16 02:11:52	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xbdd923…
04-16 02:11:10	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x510de9…
04-16 02:10:58	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x0efdc5…
04-16 02:10:50	btc updown 5m 1776305400	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3b2658…
04-16 02:09:38	btc updown 5m 1776305100	Down	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xa248cb…
04-16 02:09:32	btc updown 5m 1776305100	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x826244…
04-16 02:09:14	btc updown 5m 1776305100	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xf5895a…
04-16 02:09:00	btc updown 5m 1776305100	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xd23a72…
04-16 02:08:54	btc updown 5m 1776305100	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x3eb4a1…
04-15 14:14:58	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xb73bf0…
04-15 03:17:48	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xd623f5…
04-15 03:04:32	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xf76f4f…
04-15 03:04:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x17d163…
04-15 03:04:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x83a7e4…
04-15 02:39:02	btc updown 5m 1776220500	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x323f0a…