Cohort size
43
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
41
cohort wallets
24h volume
$754.5K
29,068 trades
Buy / Sell
$702K
/
$52K
Markets touched
1,777
Mispricings
10
≥3¢ delta in 24h
Active markets
45,842
snap 09:33 · trades 09:31
Cohort equity curve
last 90 days · cumulative realized P&L summed across all cohort wallets · scoped to Crypto · +$97,841Mispricings — smart money's avg fill vs current mid
last 24h · markets where the cohort bought at a meaningful discount to the current price| Market | Side | Avg buy | Now | Delta | $ flow | Wallets | Last buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET | YES | 44¢ | 99¢ | +55.3¢ | $609 | 7 | 05-07 09:14 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5AM ET | NO | 49¢ | 90¢ | +40.3¢ | $486 | 2 | 05-07 09:27 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | NO | 67¢ | 99¢ | +32.4¢ | $782 | 7 | 05-07 09:13 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | NO | 56¢ | 84¢ | +28.4¢ | $2,045 | 12 | 05-07 09:29 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | NO | 72¢ | 99¢ | +27.2¢ | $1,156 | 8 | 05-07 09:25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET | YES | 83¢ | 99¢ | +16.0¢ | $3,116 | 10 | 05-07 09:20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4AM ET | NO | 85¢ | 100¢ | +14.9¢ | $676 | 3 | 05-07 08:42 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | YES | 21¢ | 32¢ | +10.3¢ | $65 | 8 | 05-07 09:23 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? | NO | 73¢ | 82¢ | +9.3¢ | $1,003 | 3 | 05-07 09:25 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? | YES | 70¢ | 79¢ | +9.3¢ | $4,101 | 1 | 05-07 09:29 |
Top wallets — 30D realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Resolved (30D) | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General-School 0x01ca…200d hotnew | +$8,445 | 67.0% | 21 | $14,390 | 05-05 08:01 |
| Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc whalebothotnew | +$7,551 | 56.6% | 1302 | $132,287 | 05-07 09:31 |
| Queasy-Thrift 0x02fe…a6f3 hotnew | +$5,055 | 70.4% | 178 | $18,741 | 05-07 09:25 |
| Remarkable-Bibliography 0x7e45…5b61 hotnew | +$4,341 | 75.8% | 24 | $17,693 | 05-07 08:53 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 whalehotnew | +$3,638 | 78.6% | 1296 | $321,323 | 05-07 09:31 |
Newly resolved (last 72h)
markets that just settled where cohort wallets had positions — smart money just got paid (or burned)| Market | Winner | Resolved | Cohort wallets | Cohort vol | Cohort P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? | Yes | 05-11 04:00 | 1 | $2,336 | $-3 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 3 | $105 | +$2 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 3 | $63 | $-14 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 1 | $0 | +$0 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 2 | $92 | $-0 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 2 | $60 | $-2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 11 | $887 | +$110 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 5 | $1,142 | $-33 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 4 | $141 | +$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Up | 05-07 06:30 | 7 | $90 | $-70 |
Smart-money flow (last 6H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET | 9 | $13,885 | -$634 | +$13,251 | 16 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | 4 | $7,000 | — | +$7,000 | 8 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | 10 | $6,006 | -$2 | +$6,004 | 25 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | 10 | $5,871 | -$36 | +$5,835 | 45 | 32¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | 16 | $5,736 | -$4 | +$5,732 | 106 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | 18 | $5,361 | -$60 | +$5,301 | 130 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | 10 | $5,071 | -$34 | +$5,037 | 57 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | 4 | $4,960 | — | +$4,960 | 10 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET | 9 | $4,739 | -$11 | +$4,728 | 17 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | 10 | $4,567 | -$3 | +$4,564 | 78 | 0¢ |
Cohort heatmap — top markets × P&L tier (24h)
cell = YES-buy share · opacity = $ size · full heatmap →| Market | 🎯 Top 1% | 🏆 Top 5% | ✅ Top 10% | Median | Below median | ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 🔻 Bottom 5% | 💀 Bottom 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? | 100% | 100% | 78% | 0% | 55% | — | 100% | — |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | — | — | — | 0% | 100% | — | — | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 100% | 0% | 63% | 51% | 88% | — | — | — |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? | 81% | 7% | 53% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 46% | 24% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? | — | — | — | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | — | — | 2% | 81% | 42% | — | — | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 100% | 100% | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? | — | — | — | 71% | 50% | 0% | — | — |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | 100% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 100% | — | 82% | — |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume · SMI = top-1% YES-buy share − overall YES-buy share (last 7d)| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | SMI | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 1.6 / 1.7¢ | 98.3 / 98.4¢ | $5,821,653 | +96.5¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $712,249 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? ↗ | 0.3 / 0.4¢ | 99.6 / 99.7¢ | $451,857 | — | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 24.3 / 24.4¢ | 75.6 / 75.7¢ | $357,279 | — | Jul 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $282,163 | +20.6¢ | May 07 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | 7.0 / 8.0¢ | 92.0 / 93.0¢ | $172,832 | +96.2¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? ↗ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | $166,083 | +0.0¢ | May 07 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? ↗ | 10.0 / 11.0¢ | 89.0 / 90.0¢ | $162,496 | +90.1¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $154,652 | — | May 07 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? ↗ | 17.0 / 18.0¢ | 82.0 / 83.0¢ | $136,286 | +16.3¢ | May 07 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? ↗ | 6.0 / 7.0¢ | 93.0 / 94.0¢ | $107,435 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? ↗ | 0.7 / 1.0¢ | 99.0 / 99.3¢ | $104,862 | -1.7¢ | May 07 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | 99.6 / 99.7¢ | 0.3 / 0.4¢ | $103,573 | +0.2¢ | May 07 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? ↗ | 91.0 / 92.0¢ | 8.0 / 9.0¢ | $89,036 | +5.1¢ | May 07 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 47.0 / 49.0¢ | 51.0 / 53.0¢ | $87,868 | — | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | 42.0 / 43.0¢ | 57.0 / 58.0¢ | $79,579 | +9.8¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | 14.0 / 15.0¢ | 85.0 / 86.0¢ | $78,884 | -67.0¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $77,266 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $76,343 | — | May 08 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? ↗ | 3.0 / 3.1¢ | 96.9 / 97.0¢ | $68,594 | -5.7¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | 61.0 / 62.0¢ | 38.0 / 39.0¢ | $65,011 | +61.8¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? ↗ | 99.5 / 99.6¢ | 0.4 / 0.5¢ | $64,430 | +0.8¢ | May 08 |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 2.5 / 3.0¢ | 97.0 / 97.5¢ | $57,978 | -20.8¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | 10.0 / 11.0¢ | 89.0 / 90.0¢ | $57,163 | -2.2¢ | May 07 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | 25.0 / 26.0¢ | 74.0 / 75.0¢ | $56,308 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? ↗ | 3.6 / 3.7¢ | 96.3 / 96.4¢ | $52,403 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? ↗ | 0.6 / 0.8¢ | 99.2 / 99.4¢ | $45,610 | +98.0¢ | May 07 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? ↗ | 1.6 / 1.7¢ | 98.3 / 98.4¢ | $44,272 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 47.0 / 49.0¢ | 51.0 / 53.0¢ | $42,149 | — | Jan 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? ↗ | 77.0 / 78.0¢ | 22.0 / 23.0¢ | $37,477 | -50.9¢ | May 08 |