Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 45% or more?
open
Total volume
$648
Trades
55
Unique wallets
25
Liquidity
$2,523
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-10
last 11-04 02:45
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.6¢
(top1%: 2% YES on $363
vs crowd: 3% YES on $613)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 18 | $10 | $594 | $585 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $8 | — | +$8 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 16 | $9 | $354 | $345 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $10 | $240 | $230 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xde09…dbde | Yes | +297 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 11-03 23:08 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +245 | $240 | $240 | 1 | 11-03 23:08 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +221 | $9 | $9 | 7 | 10-31 02:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +91 | $91 | $91 | 2 | 10-31 02:06 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +75 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 11-04 02:45 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +48 | $44 | $44 | 4 | 09-22 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +40 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 11-04 02:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x61f2…e2ae | Yes | +35 | $0 | $0 | 5 | 11-04 02:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 10-31 02:06 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +26 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 09-29 18:39 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-10 20:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-03 21:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 08-10 20:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +16 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 11-04 02:45 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +15 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-22 15:29 |
| Which-Cyclooxygenase 0x5dd5…1fcf | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-22 15:28 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-22 17:15 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-10 20:34 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-04 02:45 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-15 13:22 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-29 02:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 02:45:34 | (anonymous) 0x61f2…e2ae | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x110d83… |
| 11-04 02:45:34 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 75 | 100¢ | $75 | 0x110d83… |
| 11-04 02:45:34 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x110d83… |
| 11-04 02:45:33 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x465a96… |
| 11-04 02:45:33 | (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | BUY | 16 | 100¢ | $16 | 0x465a96… |
| 11-04 02:45:33 | (anonymous) 0x61f2…e2ae | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x465a96… |
| 11-03 23:08:49 | (anonymous) 0xde09…dbde | Yes | BUY | 250 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x669477… |
| 11-03 23:08:49 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 245 | 98¢ | $240 | 0x669477… |
| 11-03 23:08:49 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x669477… |
| 11-03 23:07:33 | (anonymous) 0xde09…dbde | Yes | BUY | 47 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x67b0c8… |
| 11-03 23:07:33 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x67b0c8… |
| 11-03 23:07:33 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x67b0c8… |
| 11-03 21:44:34 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe24d06… |
| 11-03 21:44:34 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe24d06… |
| 11-03 21:43:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x16eb7a… |
| 11-03 21:43:19 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x16eb7a… |
| 10-31 02:40:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0xdaa348… |
| 10-31 02:40:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xdaa348… |
| 10-31 02:40:03 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | SELL | 25 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xdaa348… |
| 10-31 02:06:55 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x36bf5c… |
| 10-31 02:06:55 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x36bf5c… |
| 10-31 02:06:55 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x4311a3… |
| 10-31 02:06:55 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x4311a3… |
| 10-30 23:52:22 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x88f8fc… |
| 10-30 23:52:22 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x88f8fc… |
| 10-29 23:52:21 | (anonymous) 0x61f2…e2ae | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7a75f8… |
| 10-29 23:52:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7a75f8… |
| 10-29 21:45:10 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 96 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x777e52… |
| 10-29 21:45:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 96 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x777e52… |
| 10-22 17:15:36 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7bd7ce… |
| 10-22 17:15:36 | Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x7bd7ce… |
| 10-20 05:41:57 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x2c4921… |
| 10-20 05:41:57 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2c4921… |
| 09-30 10:22:03 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x79c59d… |
| 09-30 10:22:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x79c59d… |
| 09-29 18:39:36 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x73da60… |
| 09-29 18:39:36 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 13 | 100¢ | $13 | 0x73da60… |
| 09-29 02:09:54 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0351d6… |
| 09-29 02:09:54 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x0351d6… |
| 09-22 15:29:16 | Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0x979166… |
| 09-22 15:29:16 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x979166… |
| 09-22 15:29:16 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1ae60c… |
| 09-22 15:29:16 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0x1ae60c… |
| 09-22 15:28:31 | Which-Cyclooxygenase 0x5dd5…1fcf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x09b05e… |
| 09-22 15:28:31 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x09b05e… |
| 08-15 13:22:18 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x975b33… |
| 08-15 13:22:18 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x975b33… |
| 08-10 20:35:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x40967a… |
| 08-10 20:35:31 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | BUY | 8 | 92¢ | $8 | 0x40967a… |
| 08-10 20:34:51 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 8 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x46b36e… |
| 08-10 20:34:51 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | BUY | 8 | 93¢ | $8 | 0x46b36e… |
| 08-10 20:23:39 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x0a4bc1… |
| 08-10 20:23:39 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x0a4bc1… |
| 08-10 20:12:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x97c1c1… |
| 08-10 20:12:12 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 13 | 92¢ | $12 | 0x97c1c1… |