Rusty-Fava — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$252

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.0%

Resolved

Trades

29,900

lifetime

Volume

$6.25M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$209

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-10 06:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

69% 100% +$63

Other

25% — —

Crypto

6% 40% +$189

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 734 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1,536	$465.1K	688,204	235,576	+452,628	open	—	04-21 18:07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	1,515	$439.1K	442,768	241,586	+201,182	open	—	04-21 18:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	979	$328.4K	369,518	222,397	+147,121	open	—	06-15 08:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	1,276	$312.0K	525,989	85,822	+440,167	open	—	04-21 15:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	911	$203.3K	302,003	165,189	+136,814	open	—	04-07 22:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1,146	$190.8K	301,372	101,177	+200,195	open	—	04-07 22:13
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	885	$189.3K	245,328	131,812	+113,516	open	—	04-21 18:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,436	$186.1K	650,571	585,880	+64,691	open	—	05-31 21:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	365	$185.7K	225,303	120,150	+105,153	open	—	06-16 10:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	720	$185.1K	299,470	128,247	+171,224	open	—	06-15 08:50
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	996	$180.5K	589,086	467,203	+121,883	open	—	06-14 21:43
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	497	$171.0K	295,257	193,134	+102,123	open	—	03-06 15:28
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	750	$151.0K	259,708	69,541	+190,167	open	—	03-29 10:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	779	$148.3K	257,253	162,792	+94,461	open	—	02-28 21:04
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	714	$146.7K	267,279	52,278	+215,001	open	—	03-30 15:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	596	$137.4K	231,395	105,445	+125,950	open	—	04-21 14:06
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	697	$133.7K	222,180	49,435	+172,745	open	—	03-19 06:24
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	665	$129.5K	256,237	13,856	+242,381	open	—	03-31 11:45
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	689	$121.2K	153,139	68,180	+84,960	open	—	04-07 22:25
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	625	$118.9K	162,321	66,167	+96,154	open	—	04-07 22:17
cbb mst uconn 2026 03 27	82	$91.2K	94,352	44,112	+50,241	open	—	03-28 03:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	387	$90.4K	132,056	44,384	+87,672	open	—	04-20 04:42
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	506	$89.7K	131,750	37,879	+93,871	open	—	08-10 14:44
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	277	$78.6K	107,907	40,894	+67,013	open	—	08-10 14:44
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	606	$74.9K	136,694	79,378	+57,316	open	—	08-10 14:44
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	481	$69.0K	118,710	20,087	+98,623	open	—	03-31 13:54
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	223	$66.6K	127,924	21,742	+106,182	open	—	01-10 15:43
over 50m committed to the ranger public sale nd7b 655	169	$61.7K	55,679	39,348	+16,331	open	—	01-10 15:44
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	429	$61.0K	125,768	40,451	+85,317	open	—	03-18 15:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	299	$54.8K	142,885	102,146	+40,739	open	—	05-26 17:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 14:44:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0xd6ae88…
08-10 14:44:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,814	7¢	$197	0x74182c…
08-10 14:44:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	2,859	94¢	$2,688	0x35b7e0…
08-10 14:38:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	183	92¢	$168	0x8a2917…
08-10 14:17:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x224e11…
08-10 14:14:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	72	92¢	$67	0x242d1d…
08-10 06:37:27	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	150	17¢	$26	0xfacd8d…
08-10 06:36:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1,425	94¢	$1,339	0x2dfd7e…
08-10 05:48:04	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	153	38¢	$58	0xd504fe…
08-10 00:33:43	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x24ed7d…
08-10 00:33:42	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x387631…
08-09 21:09:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	909	93¢	$846	0x0a1ac9…
08-09 19:29:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	91	93¢	$84	0x53e02c…
08-09 19:20:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	900	93¢	$837	0x60fc5a…
08-09 17:56:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xf10825…
08-09 17:56:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x5b5ee6…
08-09 17:56:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x386a11…
08-09 17:56:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x354f81…
08-09 17:56:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x1e83fd…
08-09 16:59:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	3,900	10¢	$390	0x334a7c…
08-09 16:59:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	3,560	91¢	$3,240	0x51efb0…
08-09 16:58:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	603	4¢	$24	0x6d38f1…
08-09 16:41:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	148	74¢	$109	0x93e49b…
08-09 16:28:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xff4cd2…
08-09 16:19:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	653	90¢	$588	0x13c6bd…
08-09 16:16:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd29da1…
08-09 15:19:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	169	74¢	$125	0x0ccb78…
08-09 15:08:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	599	11¢	$66	0xe9e91a…
08-09 15:08:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	747	90¢	$672	0x2e30f7…
08-09 15:07:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	800	11¢	$88	0x226cfd…
08-09 15:07:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	400	11¢	$44	0x2e53f4…
08-09 15:03:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0x382ee1…
08-09 15:03:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	586	11¢	$65	0x9c5904…
08-09 14:58:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	325	73¢	$237	0x3bab5e…
08-09 13:53:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,489	12¢	$179	0x69eacb…
08-09 13:53:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,488	89¢	$1,325	0xe815c3…
08-09 13:52:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	700	12¢	$84	0xc7d912…
08-09 13:45:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xd83445…
08-09 13:18:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,200	89¢	$1,068	0xe90f0e…
08-09 13:18:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	405	12¢	$49	0x2365f1…
08-09 08:29:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	25	66¢	$16	0xc18a8a…
08-09 08:03:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	106	66¢	$70	0x38ee10…
08-09 07:24:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	603	5¢	$30	0x5433fe…
08-09 07:24:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	519	66¢	$342	0xfc6bd4…
08-09 03:23:15	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	43	13¢	$5	0xd27dc9…
08-09 00:57:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	126	12¢	$15	0x5b42bd…
08-09 00:55:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	593	12¢	$71	0x1c16df…
08-09 00:46:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	4	12¢	$1	0x14e28a…
08-08 23:56:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	9	91¢	$9	0x206dc1…
08-08 23:53:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xd5742c…
08-08 23:51:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x8fdfcb…
08-08 23:49:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x1af440…
08-08 23:44:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x9fb080…
08-08 23:42:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x21afbc…
08-08 23:41:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x12c98a…
08-08 23:40:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x513fb5…
08-08 23:39:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x19a630…
08-08 23:37:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x713033…
08-08 23:36:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xda7539…
08-08 23:35:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xb90851…
08-08 23:02:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	254	91¢	$231	0xf14e5f…
08-08 22:13:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x137f69…
08-08 22:06:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0xc4d5c1…
08-08 21:38:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0x8215f4…
08-08 21:34:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	250	12¢	$30	0x895cfe…
08-08 21:26:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	880	12¢	$106	0x23533a…
08-08 21:23:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0x7dc934…
08-08 20:42:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	329	89¢	$293	0xf40ef4…
08-08 20:41:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	112	12¢	$13	0x4fda9b…
08-08 20:41:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	337	12¢	$40	0x6a4dc3…
08-08 20:10:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	671	84¢	$564	0x7f025f…
08-08 20:05:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	529	12¢	$63	0x63b123…
08-08 20:05:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	253	84¢	$212	0x9dcafd…
08-08 20:04:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	924	84¢	$776	0x2b55b9…
08-08 16:48:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	997	88¢	$878	0xebc840…
08-08 16:29:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x498de5…
08-08 15:36:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,104	86¢	$949	0x0f9e47…
08-08 15:11:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	217	89¢	$193	0xf6ec7e…
08-08 14:57:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	219	86¢	$188	0x644dc3…
08-08 14:53:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3,015	7¢	$211	0x2c2f0a…
08-08 14:52:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	824	11¢	$91	0x231de7…
08-08 14:47:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x90ed19…
08-08 14:47:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	918	84¢	$771	0x7367d5…
08-08 13:57:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	3,015	7¢	$211	0xb2d10f…
08-08 13:56:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	347	83¢	$288	0x22cb11…
08-08 13:43:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	989	11¢	$109	0x52ca93…
08-08 13:34:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	608	84¢	$510	0x7aa6e5…
08-08 13:33:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	2,711	12¢	$325	0x2b3af3…
08-08 11:54:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	115	9¢	$10	0x832299…
08-08 08:43:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	308	9¢	$28	0xb12b25…
08-08 08:27:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x6f2210…
08-08 07:20:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x310222…
08-08 03:47:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	1,086	9¢	$98	0x6bb03a…
08-08 03:25:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,296	88¢	$1,141	0x65a8d2…
08-07 22:06:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x0ed0b9…
08-07 20:28:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	210	15¢	$32	0x02bfb8…
08-07 20:27:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,230	82¢	$1,009	0x650652…
08-07 20:22:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	478	15¢	$72	0x7e5500…
08-07 20:16:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	285	10¢	$28	0x346cde…
08-07 19:16:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	960	85¢	$816	0xff3474…