Realized P&L
-$25
Unrealized P&L
+$5
Hit rate
83.6%
Resolved
492
Trades
715
lifetime
Volume
$1.13K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$56
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-30
last 10-20 06:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 114 days
Categories
Other
48% 74% -$18
Politics
41% 72% -$11
Sports
7% 82% $0
Tech
2% 90% +$2
Crypto
1% 67% +$1
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
20 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 10-05 05:13
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 10-05 05:18
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 05-13 08:37
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:46
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:48
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 04-30 08:59
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 05-19 14:34
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 05-19 14:35
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 05-13 08:39
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 10-20 06:58
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:48
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:43
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 05-19 14:34
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +2 $2 95¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:44
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 95¢ $2 +$0 04-30 08:58
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +2 $2 95¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:46
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 95¢ $2 +$0 04-30 08:58
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:40
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:45
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +2 $2 94¢ $2 +$0 10-05 05:11
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +2 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:47
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes +2 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 10-20 06:58
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +2 $1 92¢ $2 +$1 05-13 08:40
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +2 $1 90¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:43
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2 $1 90¢ $2 +$0 10-05 05:16
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +2 $2 89¢ $2 +$0 10-07 08:06
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No +2 $1 84¢ $2 +$0 05-13 08:38
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No +2 $1 83¢ $2 +$0 05-13 08:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2 $1 83¢ $2 +$0 05-01 16:44