Defenseless-Placement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$246

Unrealized P&L

+$102

Hit rate

61.3%

Resolved

Trades

553

lifetime

Volume

$75.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$137

Open exposure

$6.34K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 09:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$6

Politics

41% 40% $-252

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	No	-307	$-304	97¢	$-299	+$5	07-02 21:45
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	+263	$236	97¢	$256	+$20	06-21 19:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+290	$235	86¢	$251	+$16	06-20 08:59
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	+250	$235	98¢	$245	+$10	06-16 06:01
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	+249	$217	96¢	$239	+$22	05-28 20:33
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	+262	$236	91¢	$239	+$3	06-27 18:55
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	No	+256	$232	92¢	$236	+$4	06-29 08:11
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+251	$236	94¢	$236	+$0	06-27 21:55
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	+260	$231	91¢	$236	+$5	06-11 16:09
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+275	$242	86¢	$235	$-7	07-17 16:04
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	+254	$236	93¢	$235	$-1	06-22 04:34
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	+283	$232	83¢	$235	+$3	06-29 20:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+271	$236	86¢	$235	$-1	06-22 04:34
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	-234	$-231	98¢	$-229	+$3	06-06 14:43
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+231	$217	96¢	$223	+$6	05-28 20:31
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+252	$217	86¢	$218	+$1	05-28 20:31
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	+246	$231	86¢	$212	$-19	06-08 21:50
NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	+218	$209	97¢	$211	+$2	06-03 04:06
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	+238	$202	88¢	$208	+$6	07-01 00:06
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+214	$200	96¢	$204	+$4	05-29 09:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+280	$232	70¢	$197	$-35	06-12 21:26
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+219	$184	88¢	$194	+$10	06-01 04:37
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	+197	$185	96¢	$189	+$4	06-02 07:09
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	No	+189	$180	98¢	$185	+$5	06-20 15:02
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	+174	$165	98¢	$170	+$5	05-29 20:35
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+166	$158	96¢	$160	+$2	06-22 11:13
NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	+157	$135	93¢	$146	+$11	05-28 20:30
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+166	$131	86¢	$143	+$12	05-31 14:35
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	+151	$133	92¢	$140	+$7	06-08 15:18
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+157	$138	88¢	$139	+$1	06-17 01:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	5	$3.2K	1,708	1,708	+0	open	—	01-24 08:50
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$2.8K	2,301	2,301	+0	open	—	03-16 21:42
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	2	$2.3K	2,521	0	+2,521	open	—	01-02 13:20
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	1	$2.0K	2,151	0	+2,151	open	—	02-10 15:56
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,629	0	+1,629	open	—	02-10 15:49
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	6	$1.4K	1,835	0	+1,835	open	—	02-10 16:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$1.2K	1,300	0	+1,300	open	—	01-02 15:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$1.2K	634	634	+0	open	—	05-31 08:04
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	2	$1.0K	763	412	+351	open	—	05-03 18:37
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	1	$1000	1,255	0	+1,255	open	—	02-10 15:57
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$972	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	03-13 04:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$870	473	473	+0	open	—	05-27 13:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$848	490	490	+0	open	—	05-27 15:30
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase december 30 january 5	1	$820	869	0	+869	open	—	01-04 11:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	7	$700	409	409	+0	open	—	05-27 13:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	1	$689	811	0	+811	open	—	04-23 14:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	1	$689	740	0	+740	open	—	04-23 14:55
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$679	896	0	+896	open	—	04-26 15:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$653	353	353	+0	open	—	05-29 20:02
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$646	349	349	+0	open	—	05-29 23:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$610	0	616	-616	open	—	06-12 21:00
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?	1	$582	0	588	-588	open	—	06-11 16:06
will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	1	$561	596	0	+596	open	—	04-09 23:06
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$561	623	0	+623	open	—	04-10 18:27
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	1	$561	585	0	+585	open	—	04-10 18:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$553	718	0	+718	open	—	04-23 14:55
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$538	571	0	+571	open	—	04-21 19:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$511	278	278	+0	open	—	06-28 06:19
ebola case in the us by june 30	8	$510	282	282	+0	open	—	06-30 14:51
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	3	$509	0	514	-514	open	—	06-16 23:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 09:13:36	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc6f19d…
07-22 07:24:07	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$18	0x5d5808…
07-20 21:48:03	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	252	93¢	$234	0x8bc816…
07-20 21:43:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	268	99¢	$265	0xc3a1f5…
07-20 18:38:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd01a2e…
07-20 09:48:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x511430…
07-20 06:47:22	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x470e4e…
07-20 06:47:21	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf268c1…
07-20 06:47:13	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4e7411…
07-20 06:47:13	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x374b12…
07-20 06:47:12	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1f35c7…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc2f131…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x69c786…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x669f3c…
07-20 06:47:06	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe35b58…
07-20 06:47:00	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9f8d27…
07-20 05:53:55	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xe59c88…
07-19 22:35:39	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	118	36¢	$43	0x6183e1…
07-18 19:13:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	41	83¢	$34	0x2f4d43…
07-18 18:04:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0xf4e0c3…
07-18 16:24:25	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x9bac27…
07-18 05:14:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x02c62d…
07-18 04:31:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x838090…
07-18 04:04:15	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	118	87¢	$103	0x6f32f8…
07-18 04:01:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	135	99¢	$133	0x659147…
07-18 02:24:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x07468e…
07-17 20:19:33	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xee435b…
07-17 16:04:16	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	275	88¢	$242	0x712b23…
07-17 15:50:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	199	99¢	$197	0x02bfd6…
07-17 12:42:18	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0xee1577…
07-17 11:38:06	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x375e4c…
07-17 08:21:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	37	76¢	$28	0xb7180b…
07-17 05:16:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x81e4e1…
07-17 02:24:54	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0ca2df…
07-17 02:24:45	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1586f2…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x92850f…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6dfa2b…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x550675…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x112485…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdc990f…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5b8e9e…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2c2d74…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x161d80…
07-16 21:38:32	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x8635b4…
07-16 20:17:14	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	SELL	36	29¢	$11	0xfb5b2d…
07-16 00:11:52	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	No	BUY	69	77¢	$53	0x9cd015…
07-15 18:55:58	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	36	91¢	$33	0x0911c6…
07-15 13:23:34	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xf3d1f5…
07-15 03:40:19	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x01bf4d…
07-15 03:39:16	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb82bf0…
07-15 03:39:14	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x604951…
07-15 03:39:08	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc3b02d…
07-15 03:39:08	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x57f103…
07-15 03:39:07	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xfc481d…
07-15 03:39:07	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x564788…
07-15 03:39:05	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8a6246…
07-15 03:39:05	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x607d1b…
07-15 03:39:05	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x54045a…
07-15 00:53:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	199	84¢	$168	0x3d74aa…
07-15 00:04:19	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	257	99¢	$254	0x01a2a7…
07-14 23:59:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x77757f…
07-14 23:59:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x74d111…
07-14 23:59:25	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x31dcb9…
07-14 17:56:04	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	85¢	$120	0xceb935…
07-14 17:47:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x35a267…
07-14 16:55:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x2af6bf…
07-14 16:02:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	57	99¢	$57	0x64f36c…
07-14 15:52:08	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	64	77¢	$49	0xde6ac3…
07-14 07:45:58	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	SELL	39	36¢	$14	0x96cb57…
07-14 05:52:13	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	BUY	39	86¢	$34	0xf5f49e…
07-14 04:12:47	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	SELL	56	99¢	$55	0x62d87b…
07-14 03:46:05	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x6b4a8c…
07-13 21:52:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	43	82¢	$35	0xb96abb…
07-13 14:52:10	will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635	No	BUY	101	78¢	$79	0xae077f…
07-13 07:48:10	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	270	90¢	$243	0x4bab7e…
07-13 07:43:22	world cup most goals record broken 20260608192914170	No	SELL	260	99¢	$258	0xf620ad…
07-13 07:03:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0xab1bab…
07-13 03:53:01	will solana dip to 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	279	87¢	$243	0x4addf7…
07-13 03:52:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	270	99¢	$267	0xed6ae3…
07-13 02:40:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xf6a248…
07-13 00:48:04	meloni out as prime minister of italy by december 31	No	BUY	259	94¢	$243	0x1583f4…
07-12 23:03:13	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	BUY	53	89¢	$47	0x2d23ad…
07-12 18:28:47	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xa3ada9…
07-12 16:57:08	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	Yes	BUY	56	92¢	$51	0xefaacc…
07-12 07:58:02	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	No	BUY	87	89¢	$77	0x295a7a…
07-12 03:41:08	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	SELL	145	99¢	$143	0x051816…
07-12 01:19:14	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	256	79¢	$202	0x7d71eb…
07-12 01:14:02	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952739	No	BUY	134	94¢	$126	0x146609…
07-12 00:19:13	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	39	79¢	$31	0x0e7ba4…
07-12 00:18:14	Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xc5be83…
07-11 23:48:49	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	162	99¢	$160	0x49c76c…
07-10 18:19:16	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	39	93¢	$36	0xb963a8…
07-10 17:44:26	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0x62c94b…
07-09 05:09:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	22	87¢	$19	0x4c56ae…
07-09 00:13:47	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xbe3d81…
07-08 08:41:07	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883 836	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6f2f29…
07-08 08:37:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	196	78¢	$153	0xb5cfc5…
07-08 08:02:19	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883 836	Yes	SELL	161	99¢	$159	0x5302e4…
07-08 07:53:52	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883 836	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc9eaae…
07-07 13:37:35	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	Yes	BUY	189	95¢	$180	0xb62b42…