Defenseless-Placement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$246

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.3%

Resolved

Trades

612

lifetime

Volume

$79.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$131

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 08:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$6

Politics

41% 40% $-252

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	5	$3.2K	1,708	1,708	+0	open	—	01-24 08:50
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	3	$2.8K	2,301	2,301	+0	open	—	03-16 21:42
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	2	$2.3K	2,521	0	+2,521	open	—	01-02 13:20
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	1	$2.0K	2,151	0	+2,151	open	—	02-10 15:56
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,629	0	+1,629	open	—	02-10 15:49
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	6	$1.4K	1,835	0	+1,835	open	—	02-10 16:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$1.2K	1,300	0	+1,300	open	—	01-02 15:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$1.2K	634	634	+0	open	—	05-31 08:04
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	2	$1.0K	763	412	+351	open	—	05-03 18:37
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	1	$1000	1,255	0	+1,255	open	—	02-10 15:57
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	2	$972	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	03-13 04:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$870	473	473	+0	open	—	05-27 13:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$848	490	490	+0	open	—	05-27 15:30
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase december 30 january 5	1	$820	869	0	+869	open	—	01-04 11:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	7	$700	409	409	+0	open	—	05-27 13:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	1	$689	811	0	+811	open	—	04-23 14:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	1	$689	740	0	+740	open	—	04-23 14:55
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$679	896	0	+896	open	—	04-26 15:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$653	353	353	+0	open	—	05-29 20:02
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	2	$646	349	349	+0	open	—	05-29 23:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$610	0	616	-616	open	—	06-12 21:00
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?	1	$582	0	588	-588	open	—	06-11 16:06
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	1	$561	585	0	+585	open	—	04-10 18:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$561	623	0	+623	open	—	04-10 18:27
will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	1	$561	596	0	+596	open	—	04-09 23:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$553	718	0	+718	open	—	04-23 14:55
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	1	$538	571	0	+571	open	—	04-21 19:46
will solana dip to 60 in july 2026	2	$520	279	279	+0	open	—	07-26 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$511	278	278	+0	open	—	06-28 06:19
ebola case in the us by june 30	8	$510	282	282	+0	open	—	06-30 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 08:12:01	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	197	99¢	$195	0x091106…
08-09 15:59:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0xbc7df7…
08-08 06:03:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	192	99¢	$190	0xfc61de…
08-08 01:20:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	263	99¢	$260	0x3ee797…
08-08 00:09:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x62c1f4…
08-05 12:50:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	89	99¢	$88	0x4cf532…
08-05 09:14:33	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	170	99¢	$168	0xdcb9a7…
08-05 08:12:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	10	26¢	$2	0xf820ae…
08-04 11:59:08	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x787ea1…
08-03 23:00:45	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xfa056d…
08-03 23:00:45	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9ab3ec…
08-03 23:00:41	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xab8a4c…
08-03 22:26:11	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	145	99¢	$143	0x5385a3…
08-03 22:00:53	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe3c7b0…
08-03 14:40:26	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x2e75bb…
08-03 11:09:11	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x7ff093…
08-03 07:01:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xce0d0e…
08-03 00:35:08	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xac650a…
08-02 12:14:56	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x904b74…
08-02 10:23:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	26	80¢	$21	0x26d803…
08-02 10:04:05	mohammed ghalibaf out as speaker of iran parliament by september 30 2026 20260710000011404	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x1a8040…
08-02 07:42:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xadb694…
08-02 06:23:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x148c69…
08-02 04:41:18	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xab0b0c…
08-02 04:41:18	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x103500…
08-02 00:12:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x793167…
08-01 18:11:56	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0xf10299…
08-01 16:08:03	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	51	75¢	$38	0xe6ec31…
08-01 16:06:29	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	79	75¢	$59	0x9fe537…
08-01 16:06:29	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0x2278fb…
08-01 10:58:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xc3b2a4…
08-01 10:58:20	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xb7fdef…
08-01 10:48:56	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x9e7c07…
08-01 10:38:29	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	182	75¢	$136	0x57d615…
08-01 02:09:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	36	80¢	$29	0x110f85…
08-01 00:09:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	54	79¢	$43	0x1981c3…
07-31 21:09:17	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	BUY	57	90¢	$51	0x73e954…
07-31 21:06:14	Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	136	93¢	$126	0xe0a5aa…
07-31 20:54:44	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0xe8d13c…
07-31 20:53:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	146	94¢	$137	0x981ddd…
07-31 20:51:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	263	92¢	$242	0x1706f0…
07-31 20:51:02	nba lebron james and bronny james jrpt to play together in 2026 27 20260630182039143	No	BUY	263	92¢	$242	0xed53f1…
07-31 20:48:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	192	87¢	$167	0x5ba6e8…
07-31 14:01:08	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	267	99¢	$265	0x2f8df5…
07-31 03:51:03	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x4f1156…
07-31 03:31:20	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x982526…
07-29 20:34:53	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	256	99¢	$253	0xf670d8…
07-28 21:18:05	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	252	99¢	$249	0x2af2ab…
07-28 19:07:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0xe93d0c…
07-27 21:03:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	32	42¢	$14	0x59fbc6…
07-26 22:37:19	will solana dip to 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	279	99¢	$277	0x7179c5…
07-26 15:13:19	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	24	99¢	$23	0x656e9d…
07-25 20:39:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	SELL	35	99¢	$34	0x558cd4…
07-24 07:48:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x1ad411…
07-23 13:42:34	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x2d9687…
07-23 09:31:03	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x2b728a…
07-23 07:41:46	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x81a588…
07-23 06:21:01	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x14f583…
07-23 04:29:36	israeli forces enter nabatieh by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb681f9…
07-22 09:13:36	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc6f19d…
07-22 07:24:07	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$18	0x5d5808…
07-20 21:48:03	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	252	93¢	$234	0x8bc816…
07-20 21:43:15	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	268	99¢	$265	0xc3a1f5…
07-20 18:38:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd01a2e…
07-20 09:48:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x511430…
07-20 06:47:22	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x470e4e…
07-20 06:47:21	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf268c1…
07-20 06:47:13	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4e7411…
07-20 06:47:13	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x374b12…
07-20 06:47:12	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1f35c7…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc2f131…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x69c786…
07-20 06:47:09	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x669f3c…
07-20 06:47:06	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe35b58…
07-20 06:47:00	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9f8d27…
07-20 05:53:55	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xe59c88…
07-19 22:35:39	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	118	36¢	$43	0x6183e1…
07-18 19:13:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	41	83¢	$34	0x2f4d43…
07-18 18:04:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0xf4e0c3…
07-18 16:24:25	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x9bac27…
07-18 05:14:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x02c62d…
07-18 04:31:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x838090…
07-18 04:04:15	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	118	87¢	$103	0x6f32f8…
07-18 04:01:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	135	99¢	$133	0x659147…
07-18 02:24:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x07468e…
07-17 20:19:33	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xee435b…
07-17 16:04:16	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	275	88¢	$242	0x712b23…
07-17 15:50:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	199	99¢	$197	0x02bfd6…
07-17 12:42:18	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0xee1577…
07-17 11:38:06	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x375e4c…
07-17 08:21:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	37	76¢	$28	0xb7180b…
07-17 05:16:18	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x81e4e1…
07-17 02:24:54	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0ca2df…
07-17 02:24:45	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1586f2…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x92850f…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6dfa2b…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x550675…
07-17 02:24:43	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x112485…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdc990f…
07-17 02:24:42	Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5b8e9e…