Honest-Decrease — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$711

Hit rate

97.5%

Resolved

235

Trades

579

lifetime

Volume

$135.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$234

Open exposure

$25.4K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 10-25 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 92% -$1,161

Other

19% 97% +$138

Tech

0% 100% +$21

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,754	$3,507	97¢	$3.7K	+$148	10-22 13:21
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,200	$3,075	98¢	$3.1K	+$69	09-14 14:29
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,121	$2,008	98¢	$2.1K	+$77	09-16 13:27
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,086	$1,973	97¢	$2.0K	+$43	08-10 10:40
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,013	$1,906	98¢	$2.0K	+$75	09-23 13:38
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	No	+1,436	$1,377	99¢	$1.4K	+$39	08-10 10:43
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,286	$1,215	98¢	$1.3K	+$39	10-03 15:37
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,224	$1,150	99¢	$1.2K	+$61	05-02 07:35
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,200	$1,144	94¢	$1.1K	-$10	07-13 14:15
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$938	92¢	$915	-$23	08-03 13:40
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+726	$697	97¢	$703	+$6	10-15 13:18
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?	No	+625	$601	98¢	$613	+$11	09-23 13:56
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+605	$575	96¢	$580	+$5	08-10 09:40
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+453	$428	99¢	$448	+$19	09-13 15:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+400	$364	98¢	$393	+$29	09-04 14:18
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	+400	$380	98¢	$392	+$12	07-28 14:18
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	No	+396	$370	94¢	$370	+$0	08-10 09:53
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?	No	+340	$327	97¢	$330	+$3	08-10 10:41
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	No	+332	$319	98¢	$327	+$8	09-04 14:19
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	+302	$292	98¢	$295	+$3	09-18 13:38
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$282	97¢	$292	+$10	09-04 14:23
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	+295	$266	97¢	$287	+$21	09-17 13:55
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	No	+219	$212	99¢	$217	+$5	07-13 14:29
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+210	$200	96¢	$203	+$2	08-01 14:02
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$190	99¢	$198	+$8	06-02 13:10
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$191	99¢	$197	+$7	06-07 13:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$192	98¢	$196	+$4	09-04 14:18
OKX IPO in 2026?	No	+200	$180	96¢	$192	+$12	07-07 13:36
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	+200	$162	96¢	$191	+$29	07-05 13:53
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	+200	$192	95¢	$190	-$2	08-02 08:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?	3	$5.0K	4,999	0	+4,999	No	+$28	04-18 10:27
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	4	$4.0K	2,600	1,497	+1,103	No	+$15	04-27 11:14
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	8	$3.8K	2,282	1,500	+782	No	+$25	05-27 05:00
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	8	$3.5K	3,754	0	+3,754	open	—	10-22 13:21
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$3.1K	3,200	0	+3,200	open	—	09-14 14:29
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?	5	$2.5K	1,634	908	+726	No	+$15	06-23 13:28
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	4	$2.5K	1,500	1,000	+500	No	+$6	05-29 14:50
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	4	$2.2K	1,368	800	+568	No	+$8	04-26 06:08
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	6	$2.1K	1,155	1,000	+155	No	+$6	04-28 14:32
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?	2	$2.0K	2,042	0	+2,042	No	+$16	06-07 13:26
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	2,121	0	+2,121	open	—	09-16 13:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	4	$2.0K	1,000	999	+1	No	+$7	04-26 05:55
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$2.0K	2,086	0	+2,086	open	—	08-10 10:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	08-27 13:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.9K	1,017	1,017	+0	open	—	08-27 13:11
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.9K	2,013	0	+2,013	open	—	09-23 13:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	3	$1.8K	1,868	0	+1,868	No	+$20	04-18 10:28
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?	5	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$11	04-12 04:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	5	$1.5K	1,564	0	+1,564	No	+$28	05-22 14:31
Will BNB reach $1400 by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	830	801	+29	open	—	09-23 13:37
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	3	$1.5K	1,000	500	+500	No	+$4	04-26 05:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	2	$1.5K	1,500	0	+1,500	No	+$17	04-12 04:03
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	5	$1.4K	1,436	0	+1,436	open	—	08-10 10:43
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?	5	$1.3K	1,302	0	+1,302	No	+$11	07-21 13:13
will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	2	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	No	+$12	06-08 11:32
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	2	$1.3K	1,267	0	+1,267	No	+$15	04-18 10:28
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.2K	1,286	0	+1,286	open	—	10-03 15:37
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$9	03-24 14:01
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	4	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$13	03-24 13:30
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,224	0	+1,224	open	—	05-02 07:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 14:09:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x004732…
10-25 14:09:12	Will BNB reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x982d56…
10-25 06:20:18	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0xc6f050…
10-24 15:22:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x329a70…
10-24 15:20:53	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xb7d896…
10-24 15:19:57	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	20¢	$47	0xb75ebc…
10-23 01:42:32	Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x192087…
10-23 01:08:44	Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaeaf84…
10-23 01:08:44	Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x72a3e5…
10-22 13:21:45	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x021065…
10-22 13:20:38	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x2fe0a1…
10-15 13:21:25	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0xd6a6ee…
10-15 13:19:23	Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc2c5ad…
10-15 13:18:55	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	126	97¢	$121	0xe27560…
10-13 11:59:31	Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0xa920bd…
10-13 11:14:47	Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xe94c03…
10-06 16:18:35	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $420 in October?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x096623…
10-06 16:18:21	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in October?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x76bee3…
10-03 15:47:18	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	75	80¢	$61	0xdf299f…
10-03 15:45:50	Will Zcash dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xdc2ce5…
10-03 15:44:56	Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xd44774…
10-03 15:43:21	Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xf800ba…
10-03 15:41:36	Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	67	90¢	$60	0xefd6e9…
10-03 15:38:33	Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x9d00fe…
10-03 15:37:50	Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x2fa660…
10-03 15:36:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x668e56…
10-01 14:27:42	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x802da0…
10-01 14:22:27	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0c9d41…
10-01 14:21:47	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x73ea73…
10-01 14:20:41	Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xe7d237…
10-01 14:15:23	Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x7180f2…
10-01 14:12:56	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	120	96¢	$115	0xe73727…
10-01 14:10:02	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	69	96¢	$66	0xf2d3a8…
10-01 14:08:54	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x2b381d…
10-01 14:06:21	will bitcoin dip to 60k in october 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x19efdf…
10-01 14:06:09	will bitcoin reach 105k in october 2026	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4ccba6…
10-01 14:04:47	Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x39f68a…
10-01 14:04:32	Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x4dfa86…
10-01 14:00:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbf00d1…
10-01 13:59:56	Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xd11e97…
10-01 13:57:33	will nvda dip to 184 in october 2026	No	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0x226149…
10-01 13:57:02	will nvda dip to 192 in october 2026	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x5807c3…
10-01 13:56:12	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $155 in October?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xab6e40…
10-01 13:54:51	Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	107	80¢	$86	0x9e29bc…
10-01 13:53:44	Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xefcb59…
10-01 13:49:48	Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x5c510d…
09-30 14:22:48	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,320 in September?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7651e3…
09-27 06:14:15	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 in September?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc545ae…
09-27 06:12:08	Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xe13043…
09-27 06:06:06	Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x1b16c2…
09-27 06:05:56	Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x8e5c5f…
09-27 06:05:44	Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	55	84¢	$46	0x855933…
09-27 06:04:35	Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x91ca60…
09-26 13:37:56	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in September?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xb4a7a6…
09-26 13:36:36	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,380 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x14a320…
09-26 13:36:26	will mu reach 1440 in september 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa57799…
09-26 13:35:15	Will XRP reach $2.40 in September?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xf41fcd…
09-24 14:09:28	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $460 in September?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x282508…
09-24 14:09:10	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in September?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xbdb339…
09-23 13:56:22	Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x20d616…
09-23 13:54:26	Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x12fad5…
09-23 13:52:50	Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd61a99…
09-23 13:45:31	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in September?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xbe22cd…
09-23 13:44:34	Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x8beccd…
09-23 13:39:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x764979…
09-23 13:38:59	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	97¢	$291	0xedb00d…
09-23 13:38:29	Will BNB reach $1800 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	221	96¢	$213	0xed3c43…
09-23 13:38:07	Will BNB reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xd085e8…
09-23 13:37:28	Will BNB reach $1400 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	801	91¢	$728	0x92dc2f…
09-23 13:35:43	Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xa815c5…
09-23 13:34:16	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 21-27?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc3657c…
09-23 13:32:32	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in September?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa3dabf…
09-23 13:32:11	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in September?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa83ad7…
09-23 13:31:19	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 30 2026 32pt22	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x804c8a…
09-23 13:30:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in September?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xc0aa3b…
09-23 13:23:13	Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0xb10dde…
09-18 13:38:48	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb431b7…
09-18 10:33:58	Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x3c337b…
09-17 13:55:18	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xe22ece…
09-17 13:54:43	Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x266bba…
09-17 13:53:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xd43add…
09-17 13:53:49	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x25231d…
09-17 13:53:39	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x70756f…
09-17 13:53:18	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $457.50 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9dc301…
09-17 13:52:13	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $610 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3b8a24…
09-17 13:51:46	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x005c32…
09-17 13:51:04	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf13b57…
09-17 13:50:55	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x274037…
09-17 13:48:33	mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 30 2026 32pt22	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xd5f70b…
09-17 13:45:36	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x217eda…
09-17 13:44:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xba97d8…
09-16 13:31:51	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	168	96¢	$161	0x10c2e1…
09-16 13:29:33	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	97¢	$99	0xec3602…
09-16 13:29:03	Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	97¢	$108	0x0b985e…
09-16 13:28:31	Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0x615e51…
09-16 13:28:13	Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0x76a8ef…
09-16 13:27:43	Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$484	0x0986ab…
09-16 13:26:34	Will Solana reach $300 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	97¢	$79	0xf0b98c…
09-16 13:06:36	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x093b31…
09-14 14:30:36	Will Solana reach $160 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x4cdc1c…