Warlike-Shoemaker 0x4eb601…2a5e8a
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Realized P&L (7d)
+$26
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
76.5%
Resolved (7d)
11
Trades (7d)
20
8,454 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$371
$29.3K lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$202
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-02 12:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 203 days
Categories
Politics
54% 66% -$49
Other
36% 61% -$12
Crypto
8% 52% -$20
Tech
1% 71% -$3
Sports
1% 57% +$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -15 -$14 95¢ $-14 $0 09-27 00:50
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No -15 -$12 92¢ $-13 -$1 05-03 19:55
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -13 -$12 97¢ $-12 $0 11-01 19:51
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +10 $10 98¢ $10 +$0 07-13 19:14
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No -10 -$10 99¢ $-10 $0 06-29 21:44
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? No -10 -$9 98¢ $-10 $0 11-01 19:51
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +11 $5 72¢ $8 +$3 07-30 02:36
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +8 $5 94¢ $8 +$3 08-09 11:17
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +7 $7 92¢ $6 -$1 06-30 05:07
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes +6 $6 96¢ $6 +$0 06-30 00:45
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -6 -$6 98¢ $-6 $0 06-30 00:27
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +6 $6 96¢ $6 $0 08-05 17:11
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +6 $5 90¢ $6 +$1 07-31 21:28
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$1 05-19 20:53
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +6 $5 94¢ $6 +$0 07-15 01:46
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +6 $6 94¢ $6 +$0 06-30 00:32
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +9 $5 64¢ $6 +$1 08-11 11:43
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No -6 -$4 97¢ $-5 -$1 06-30 00:17
US recession by end of 2026? No -6 -$5 94¢ $-5 -$1 07-23 13:35
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 06-30 00:17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 06-30 00:45
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 06-30 00:32
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 06-29 22:01
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No -5 -$5 100¢ $-5 $0 05-03 19:55
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 97¢ $5 +$0 08-06 15:02
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 08-04 15:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -5 -$5 97¢ $-5 $0 06-29 17:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 07-06 09:31
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No -5 -$5 98¢ $-5 $0 06-29 21:50
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No +5 $4 98¢ $5 +$1 05-15 03:38