| Asset | Market | Strike | Dir | DTE | Polymarket | Deribit | Residual | Z | Bet | Max % | EV % | Vol 24h | Liquidity | Spot ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? ↗ | $2,200 | below | 27d | 66.5¢ | 26.2¢ | +40.3¢ | +3.9 | No @ 34¢ | +199% | +120.2% | $9.6K | $17.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 27d | 85.0¢ | 48.8¢ | +36.2¢ | +3.5 | No @ 15¢ | +567% | +241.4% | $31.1K | $19.6K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 2d | 68.0¢ | 90.9¢ | -22.9¢ | -2.2 | Yes @ 68¢ | +47% | +33.6% | $747 | $13.4K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 2d | 23.0¢ | 44.6¢ | -21.6¢ | -2.1 | Yes @ 23¢ | +335% | +93.9% | $1.8K | $14.7K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 3d | 65.0¢ | 85.6¢ | -20.6¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 65¢ | +54% | +31.6% | $188 | $11.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 6d | 61.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -20.6¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 61¢ | +64% | +33.7% | $192 | $10.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? ↗ | $2,000 | below | 27d | 30.5¢ | 10.3¢ | +20.2¢ | +2.0 | No @ 70¢ | +44% | +29.0% | $4.1K | $33.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 3d | 27.0¢ | 47.0¢ | -20.0¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 27¢ | +270% | +74.0% | $34 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 5d | 62.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -19.6¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 62¢ | +61% | +31.5% | $181 | $9.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 2d | 28.0¢ | 8.5¢ | +19.5¢ | +1.9 | No @ 72¢ | +39% | +27.1% | — | $4.2K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 4d | 63.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -18.6¢ | -1.8 | Yes @ 63¢ | +59% | +29.5% | $84 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 4d | 30.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -17.8¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 30¢ | +233% | +59.5% | $8 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? ↗ | $2,600 | above | 27d | 42.5¢ | 25.0¢ | +17.5¢ | +1.7 | No @ 57¢ | +74% | +30.4% | $27.4K | $29.6K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 5d | 31.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -16.8¢ | -1.6 | Yes @ 31¢ | +223% | +54.3% | $18 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 3d | 28.0¢ | 12.2¢ | +15.8¢ | +1.5 | No @ 72¢ | +39% | +22.0% | — | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 6d | 33.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -14.8¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 33¢ | +203% | +45.0% | $49 | $10.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 2d | 19.0¢ | 33.8¢ | -14.8¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 19¢ | +426% | +77.7% | — | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 10? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 6d | 81.5¢ | 95.8¢ | -14.3¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 82¢ | +23% | +17.6% | $240 | $9.9K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 3d | 20.0¢ | 33.1¢ | -13.1¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +65.5% | $24 | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 6d | 18.5¢ | 30.6¢ | -12.1¢ | -1.2 | Yes @ 18¢ | +441% | +65.2% | — | $4.9K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 5d | 85.0¢ | 95.8¢ | -10.8¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 85¢ | +18% | +12.7% | $199 | $9.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 4d | 25.0¢ | 14.3¢ | +10.7¢ | +1.0 | No @ 75¢ | +33% | +14.3% | $708 | $8.8K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 5d | 20.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -10.6¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +52.8% | $24 | $4.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 8? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 4d | 20.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -10.6¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +52.8% | $24 | $4.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 9? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 5d | 24.5¢ | 14.3¢ | +10.2¢ | +1.0 | No @ 76¢ | +32% | +13.6% | $51 | $4.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 10? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 6d | 23.0¢ | 14.3¢ | +8.7¢ | +0.9 | No @ 77¢ | +30% | +11.4% | — | $4.9K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 8? ↗ | $2,500 | above | 4d | 9.0¢ | 17.3¢ | -8.3¢ | -0.8 | Yes @ 9¢ | +1011% | +92.0% | $272 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 10? ↗ | $2,100–$2,200 | between | 6d | 11.5¢ | 3.3¢ | +8.2¢ | +0.8 | No @ 88¢ | +13% | +9.3% | — | $5.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? ↗ | $2,800 | above | 27d | 18.5¢ | 10.6¢ | +7.9¢ | +0.8 | No @ 82¢ | +23% | +9.7% | $26.3K | $25.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 4d | 88.0¢ | 95.8¢ | -7.8¢ | -0.8 | Yes @ 88¢ | +14% | +8.9% | $4.6K | $11.6K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9? ↗ | $2,100–$2,200 | between | 5d | 11.0¢ | 3.3¢ | +7.7¢ | +0.8 | No @ 89¢ | +12% | +8.7% | $7 | $4.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? ↗ | $2,500 | above | 3d | 6.5¢ | 13.9¢ | -7.4¢ | -0.7 | Yes @ 6¢ | +1438% | +113.6% | $189 | $11.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 10? ↗ | $2,300–$2,400 | between | 6d | 26.5¢ | 33.7¢ | -7.2¢ | -0.7 | Yes @ 26¢ | +277% | +27.2% | — | $4.9K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 9? ↗ | $2,300–$2,400 | between | 5d | 26.5¢ | 33.7¢ | -7.2¢ | -0.7 | Yes @ 26¢ | +277% | +27.2% | $45 | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8? ↗ | $2,100–$2,200 | between | 4d | 10.0¢ | 3.3¢ | +6.7¢ | +0.7 | No @ 90¢ | +11% | +7.5% | — | $4.6K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? ↗ | $2,500 | above | 2d | 4.1¢ | 10.8¢ | -6.7¢ | -0.7 | Yes @ 4¢ | +2339% | +164.3% | $127 | $11.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9? ↗ | $2,500 | above | 5d | 10.7¢ | 17.3¢ | -6.6¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 11¢ | +835% | +61.5% | $162 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 3d | 91.5¢ | 97.7¢ | -6.2¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 92¢ | +9% | +6.8% | $341 | $12.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 7? ↗ | $2,100–$2,200 | between | 3d | 7.9¢ | 1.8¢ | +6.1¢ | +0.6 | No @ 92¢ | +9% | +6.6% | $7 | $4.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? ↗ | $1,800 | below | 27d | 9.5¢ | 3.6¢ | +5.9¢ | +0.6 | No @ 90¢ | +10% | +6.6% | $36.9K | $36.7K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 8? ↗ | $2,500–$2,600 | between | 4d | 6.6¢ | 12.3¢ | -5.7¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 7¢ | +1415% | +85.8% | — | $4.2K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 7? ↗ | $2,500–$2,600 | between | 3d | 4.8¢ | 10.4¢ | -5.5¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 5¢ | +1962% | +113.7% | — | $362 | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 2d | 93.8¢ | 99.4¢ | -5.5¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 94¢ | +7% | +5.9% | $521 | $12.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 6? ↗ | $2,500–$2,600 | between | 2d | 3.3¢ | 8.3¢ | -5.0¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 3¢ | +2930% | +150.5% | — | $4.2K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 9? ↗ | $2,500–$2,600 | between | 5d | 7.6¢ | 12.3¢ | -4.7¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 8¢ | +1216% | +61.3% | $6 | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 10? ↗ | $2,500 | above | 6d | 13.0¢ | 17.3¢ | -4.3¢ | -0.4 | Yes @ 13¢ | +669% | +32.9% | $7 | $9.8K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 6? ↗ | $2,100–$2,200 | between | 2d | 4.5¢ | 0.5¢ | +4.0¢ | +0.4 | No @ 95¢ | +5% | +4.2% | — | $5.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 10? ↗ | $2,500–$2,600 | between | 6d | 8.5¢ | 12.3¢ | -3.8¢ | -0.4 | Yes @ 8¢ | +1076% | +44.2% | — | $5.2K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 10? ↗ | $2,000–$2,100 | between | 6d | 4.2¢ | 0.7¢ | +3.5¢ | +0.3 | No @ 96¢ | +4% | +3.7% | — | $4.9K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 10? ↗ | $2,100 | above | 6d | 95.5¢ | 99.1¢ | -3.5¢ | -0.3 | Yes @ 96¢ | +5% | +3.7% | $190 | $6.1K | $2,399 |
Polymarket column is bid-derived implied prob:
(yes_bid + (1 - no_bid)) / 2.
Deribit column is risk-neutral P(direction|asset, strike, expiry)
extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger from an SVI smile fit on the live option chain.
Residual = Polymarket − Deribit.
Z uses a 14-day rolling residual std per signal_id (or a 7pp prior
while history is thin).
Refreshes every 5 min. Raw JSON at
/api/predict/signals.