Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
open
Total volume
$111
Trades
21
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$1,994
Latest YES mid
10¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-25 04:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
NO holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+67.5¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $9
vs crowd: 33% YES on $48)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $3 | $19 | $16 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $1 | $13 | $12 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $2 | — | +$2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 1 | — | $13 | $13 |
| Below median | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $2 | $19 | $17 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| unranked | 1 | — | — | +— |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Few-Prevention 0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | +102 | $9 | $9 | 3 | 06-21 10:07 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-10 08:49 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-12 16:00 |
| Fantastic-Country 0x80a1…fd66 | Yes | +18 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-28 02:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xd577…d2da | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-10 08:49 |
| Infatuated-Spider 0x8b02…b95f | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 04:04 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 04:04:31 | Extraneous-Nest 0xad9d…9dcf | No | SELL | 1 | 90¢ | $1 | 0x4139b6… |
| 06-25 04:04:31 | Infatuated-Spider 0x8b02…b95f | No | BUY | 1 | 90¢ | $1 | 0x4139b6… |
| 06-21 10:07:01 | Young-Hurdler 0xfb87…2fcf | Yes | SELL | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xfb0385… |
| 06-21 10:07:01 | Few-Prevention 0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xfb0385… |
| 06-20 14:19:55 | (anonymous) 0xc6b2…3caa | Yes | SELL | 90 | 9¢ | $8 | 0x2d79cf… |
| 06-20 14:19:55 | Few-Prevention 0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 9¢ | $8 | 0x2d79cf… |
| 06-12 16:00:27 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd5b396… |
| 06-12 16:00:27 | Warlike-Noun-Haircut 0x0d26…50b5 | No | SELL | 50 | 90¢ | $45 | 0xd5b396… |
| 06-12 16:00:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xd5b396… |
| 06-12 16:00:27 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd5b396… |
| 06-12 16:00:27 | Tremendous-Penalty 0xdf08…cf97 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd5b396… |
| 06-10 08:49:43 | Few-Prevention 0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xb39c1e… |
| 06-10 08:49:43 | (anonymous) 0xd577…d2da | No | BUY | 14 | 91¢ | $13 | 0xb39c1e… |
| 06-10 08:49:43 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xb39c1e… |
| 06-03 05:10:00 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xd36b38… |
| 06-03 05:10:00 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xd36b38… |
| 06-03 05:10:00 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd36b38… |
| 06-03 05:04:43 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | Yes | SELL | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x5a8b18… |
| 06-03 05:04:43 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x5a8b18… |
| 05-28 02:11:01 | Fantastic-Country 0x80a1…fd66 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x4f9249… |
| 05-28 02:11:01 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 18 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x4f9249… |