Tremendous-Penalty — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

82,557

lifetime

Volume

$273.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-07 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

57% 43% $-2

Politics

26% 64% +$37

Crypto

9% 62% +$23

Tech

6% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	596	$2.5K	5,125	+5,125	open	—	02-20 03:20
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 360 379	390	$1.5K	3,219	+3,219	open	—	02-13 16:32
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 280 299	355	$1.5K	3,002	+3,002	open	—	02-10 12:34
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	366	$1.4K	2,920	+2,920	open	—	02-13 15:50
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 260 279	313	$1.3K	2,681	+2,681	open	—	02-10 03:56
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	281	$1.3K	2,529	+2,529	open	—	03-02 09:00
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 440 459	314	$1.2K	2,660	+2,660	open	—	02-13 13:57
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	272	$1.2K	2,304	+2,304	open	—	02-20 04:05
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 420 439	311	$1.2K	2,602	+2,602	open	—	02-13 14:58
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	300	$1.2K	2,638	+2,638	open	—	02-14 02:06
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	289	$1.2K	2,332	+2,332	open	—	02-20 03:52
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 220 239	243	$1.2K	2,204	+2,204	open	—	02-09 11:41
will player 167 win beast games season 2 763	274	$1.1K	2,163	+2,163	open	—	02-25 08:00
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 340 359	272	$1.1K	2,447	+2,447	open	—	02-13 06:36
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 300 319	274	$1.1K	2,168	+2,168	open	—	02-10 12:38
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 380 399	269	$1.1K	2,271	+2,271	open	—	02-13 16:39
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	260	$1.1K	2,248	+2,248	open	—	02-09 03:50
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 240 259	261	$995	2,065	+2,065	open	—	02-09 16:27
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	226	$945	1,950	+1,950	open	—	02-27 13:00
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	257	$936	1,963	+1,963	open	—	03-11 17:03
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	141	$890	1,829	+1,829	open	—	01-31 12:55
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	212	$884	1,927	+1,927	open	—	02-09 01:47
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 320 339	217	$875	1,883	+1,883	open	—	02-12 00:46
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 460 479	225	$866	1,907	+1,907	open	—	02-13 11:27
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	186	$857	1,656	+1,656	open	—	02-28 08:53
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	378	$837	1,726	+1,726	open	—	03-23 16:29
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	276	$832	2,006	+2,006	open	—	03-24 07:22
will travis scott perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	171	$791	1,678	+1,678	open	—	02-09 04:41
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	186	$791	1,635	+1,635	open	—	03-02 08:32
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	175	$769	1,562	+1,562	open	—	02-06 20:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 09:25:55	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x370e55…
06-22 17:54:40	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0xc5b6ec…
06-22 12:39:41	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$0	0x558213…
06-19 02:45:17	Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xcc9f83…
06-17 02:47:09	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x5997ea…
06-16 09:57:43	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x93f6b7…
06-16 04:17:12	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x24b260…
06-12 16:00:27	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xd5b396…
06-11 22:14:28	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x5973ce…
06-11 13:02:49	Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xc34c5c…
06-09 22:02:58	Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x00de95…
06-09 14:41:51	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	No	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xf77e12…
06-08 23:03:48	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x8cd299…
06-08 18:09:04	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	No	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x050b96…
06-08 14:49:42	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x8c8f24…
06-08 03:41:57	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xff9a09…
06-07 21:39:55	Will Trump nationalize elections?	Yes	SELL	27	12¢	$3	0x889b61…
06-07 16:28:06	Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x04786b…
06-06 15:28:45	Will Tempo launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x09ec2d…
06-06 03:12:48	Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	15¢	$9	0xe51eee…
06-06 02:03:34	Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x7c9f7b…
06-05 21:10:18	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	13	66¢	$9	0xd23951…
06-05 18:39:51	Will Tempo launch a token by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0xb7ccfd…
06-05 01:55:19	Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xfd2696…
06-04 13:57:31	Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xc04d78…
06-04 04:36:16	U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x9ca3c0…
06-03 16:22:27	Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xf99839…
06-03 01:26:30	Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0xb45464…
06-02 20:43:49	Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x34eac8…
06-02 17:35:01	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x7f2c6f…
06-02 13:20:22	Dreamcash FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	82¢	$5	0x0c1bd4…
06-02 05:38:23	Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xaccd01…
06-01 14:46:37	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	SELL	23	92¢	$21	0xa1f885…
06-01 03:55:35	Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x1aedfd…
05-31 23:27:22	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x0c9afa…
05-31 19:14:44	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x9dec05…
05-31 13:03:54	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x1e4813…
05-31 05:00:14	Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x98cb00…
05-30 10:28:01	Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x05e256…
05-29 22:26:23	Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xfca5d4…
05-29 16:49:43	Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x0c532c…
05-29 04:45:04	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x236650…
05-29 04:44:17	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xa6869c…
05-29 01:03:10	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xc9340b…
05-28 21:27:30	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?	No	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0x70e612…
05-28 15:00:37	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x19d2f5…
05-28 09:25:10	Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x4077d7…
05-28 02:02:35	Don Lemon charges dropped?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xe2a00a…
05-27 22:38:57	Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	64¢	$16	0x97de7b…
05-27 21:59:57	Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xe9d841…
05-27 03:54:17	Don Lemon charges dropped?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xa83673…
05-20 09:43:50	Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0x057f56…
05-16 11:23:06	Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0xd3613e…
05-14 08:38:59	Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x957877…
05-13 08:16:27	Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xc0a7c9…
05-12 21:59:31	Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x32ded4…
05-12 21:41:49	Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xb1fd2e…
05-12 20:26:56	Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x283f18…
05-12 18:16:37	Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0x340501…
05-12 14:21:06	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	43	9¢	$4	0x5a3239…
05-12 14:06:24	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xcb4158…
05-12 09:19:52	Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xe92929…
05-12 06:28:52	Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xca2f86…
05-12 01:17:53	Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	13¢	$0	0x2155da…
05-11 20:31:13	Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xd76f83…
05-11 18:52:27	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	No	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0x4fa040…
05-11 14:47:43	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x92cc4a…
05-11 14:39:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x098622…
05-11 14:21:19	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	No	SELL	88	1¢	$1	0x307228…
05-11 14:18:28	Canada recession before 2027?	No	SELL	17	78¢	$14	0x745594…
05-11 11:36:00	Canada recession before 2027?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x5d0982…
05-11 10:12:37	Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	No	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0x063301…
05-11 09:45:31	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	No	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x604463…
05-11 09:14:20	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x7c4844…
05-11 09:10:08	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x0a042d…
05-11 09:08:06	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x1a1f74…
05-11 03:50:23	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xda8464…
05-11 03:34:01	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0xe6e647…
03-24 09:13:51	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4f2852…
03-24 09:12:05	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x541c45…
03-24 09:10:15	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x864824…
03-24 09:07:11	will liberal alliance win the third most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x451601…
03-24 09:05:03	cz binance of tweets march 24 march 31 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb7b80c…
03-24 09:04:09	will the social democrats win 35 seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xbd3d4e…
03-24 09:03:07	will israel take military action in gaza on march 21 2026	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xdc7886…
03-24 09:01:31	will trump say tiger this week march 29	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xc63160…
03-24 08:59:37	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	29¢	$0	0xb96da2…
03-24 08:59:37	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x3409f3…
03-24 08:58:03	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x53e9fe…
03-24 08:50:57	will dick durbin vote yea on the department of homeland security appropriations act 2026	Yes	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xda3e79…
03-24 08:45:21	will israel launch a major ground offensive in gaza by march 31	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb86b21…
03-24 08:39:37	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	No	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x6a8d07…
03-24 08:39:35	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xac00c2…
03-24 08:38:41	will danish peoples party win the third most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x7651f7…
03-24 08:38:25	donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd87091…
03-24 08:38:19	will danish peoples party win the third most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9a2756…
03-24 08:37:53	cz binance of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 20 39	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x71c628…
03-24 08:37:21	will liberal alliance win the third most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x09b54a…
03-24 08:36:41	will liberal alliance win the third most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x4fe267…
03-24 08:36:29	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 24 2026	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0xf3b3d3…