Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$408
$1 in 24h
Trades
44
Unique wallets
25
Liquidity
$1,261
Latest YES mid
39¢
Latest NO mid
61¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-19 06:50
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $4 | $45 | $41 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $11 | $40 | $29 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $25 | $13 | +$12 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9 | $7 | $96 | $89 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $2 | $32 | $30 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $12 | — | +$12 |
| Median | 4 | — | $18 | $18 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $30 | $30 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $8 | $8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $32 | $32 |
| unranked | 9 | $24 | $74 | $50 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flowery-Ounce 0x2455…a70f | Yes | +111 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-10 01:14 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +67 | $6 | $10 | 4 | 07-15 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xd388…0190 | Yes | +42 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-18 09:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xd60d…19a9 | No | +33 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 07-15 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | No | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-18 09:59 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 09:51 |
| Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | +12 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-18 09:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | +11 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-15 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | +10 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-18 09:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x81b2…2e06 | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-14 11:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | Yes | +7 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-19 06:50 |
| Imperturbable-Knife 0xb387…a0a8 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-19 06:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x783e…5a19 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-15 12:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 06:50:49 | Imperturbable-Knife 0xb387…a0a8 | No | BUY | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0x96c4f0… |
| 07-19 06:50:49 | (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x96c4f0… |
| 07-18 09:59:40 | (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0x40f847… |
| 07-18 09:59:40 | (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | BUY | 10 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x40f847… |
| 07-18 09:59:40 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | BUY | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x40f847… |
| 07-18 09:59:40 | (anonymous) 0xd388…0190 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 35¢ | $15 | 0x40f847… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | (anonymous) 0x783e…5a19 | No | BUY | 1 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 25 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | (anonymous) 0xd60d…19a9 | No | BUY | 8 | 91¢ | $8 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 11 | 63¢ | $7 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 12:12:46 | (anonymous) 0x66d5…62c7 | No | SELL | 66 | 85¢ | $56 | 0xc0effd… |
| 07-15 11:58:08 | (anonymous) 0x66d5…62c7 | No | BUY | 66 | 91¢ | $60 | 0x94277a… |
| 07-15 11:58:08 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 66 | 9¢ | $6 | 0x94277a… |
| 07-12 06:40:40 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xc08f46… |
| 07-12 06:40:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xc08f46… |
| 07-10 08:13:44 | (anonymous) 0xd60d…19a9 | No | BUY | 24 | 91¢ | $22 | 0xf816a0… |
| 07-10 08:13:44 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0xf816a0… |
| 07-10 08:13:44 | Immense-Incandescence 0x3cef…0c68 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xf816a0… |
| 07-10 01:14:38 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0x4cce0d… |
| 07-10 01:14:38 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0x4cce0d… |
| 07-10 01:14:32 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0xa5ddc7… |
| 07-10 01:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 9¢ | $4 | 0xa5ddc7… |
| 07-10 01:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x9dc2…0727 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xa5ddc7… |
| 07-10 01:14:32 | Flowery-Ounce 0x2455…a70f | Yes | BUY | 111 | 9¢ | $10 | 0xa5ddc7… |
| 07-02 02:22:02 | Swift-Chili 0xccdd…854f | Yes | SELL | 6 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x9bd41a… |
| 07-02 02:22:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 6 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x9bd41a… |
| 07-02 01:12:37 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9e4a05… |
| 07-02 01:12:37 | (anonymous) 0x9dc2…0727 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9e4a05… |
| 07-02 01:12:23 | (anonymous) 0x9dc2…0727 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xefcf3a… |
| 07-02 01:12:23 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | No | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0xefcf3a… |
| 06-25 12:58:01 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x604517… |
| 06-25 12:58:01 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x604517… |
| 06-20 22:58:58 | Immense-Incandescence 0x3cef…0c68 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x8f1c5a… |
| 06-20 22:58:58 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x8f1c5a… |
| 06-20 14:46:13 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xafd1fa… |
| 06-20 14:46:13 | Scientific-Impala 0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | SELL | 30 | 10¢ | $3 | 0xafd1fa… |
| 06-20 14:46:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 19 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xafd1fa… |
| 06-14 11:36:19 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xab7eb0… |
| 06-14 11:36:19 | (anonymous) 0x81b2…2e06 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xab7eb0… |
| 05-31 09:51:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x9d9aca… |
| 05-31 09:51:26 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x9d9aca… |
| 05-29 14:17:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x5cd7df… |
| 05-29 14:17:35 | Swift-Chili 0xccdd…854f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x5cd7df… |