Pessimistic-Ski-Texture 0xcfdcea…f85a2e
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$184
Unrealized P&L
-$386
Hit rate
63.4%
Resolved
16
Trades
1,874
lifetime
Volume
$75.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$40
Open exposure
$2.75K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 07-21 18:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
60% 44% +$120
Other
29% 60% +$81
Crypto
9% 50% $-17
Sports
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -380 $-357 94¢ $-359 $-2 07-17 17:03
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +300 $243 86¢ $258 +$15 06-30 08:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +457 $456 54¢ $244 $-212 07-19 19:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +210 $238 99¢ $207 $-31 06-28 07:51
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -190 $-181 96¢ $-181 $-0 07-17 12:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +500 $280 36¢ $178 $-103 07-21 21:06
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No -200 $-142 78¢ $-157 $-15 06-29 18:59
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +200 $138 65¢ $130 $-8 07-04 20:11
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No -110 $-105 96¢ $-105 +$0 07-19 00:37
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No +100 $94 96¢ $96 +$2 06-15 11:10
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +100 $87 89¢ $89 +$2 07-01 21:23
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No -100 $-89 86¢ $-86 +$2 07-19 01:32
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +110 $90 76¢ $84 $-7 07-20 09:47
Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +82 $79 95¢ $78 $-0 07-18 14:25
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No -83 $-74 94¢ $-78 $-4 05-31 05:28
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +79 $74 97¢ $77 +$2 07-18 15:39
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -201 $-60 23¢ $-46 +$14 06-08 09:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -42 $8 72¢ $-30 $-38 07-19 09:13
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +100 $34 30¢ $29 $-4 07-02 05:52
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +50 $30 55¢ $28 $-2 07-03 00:25
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +30 $27 88¢ $26 $-0 06-29 22:56
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +28 $24 89¢ $25 +$1 07-17 13:45
Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +25 $23 95¢ $24 +$0 07-05 22:27
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +31 $21 72¢ $22 +$1 07-02 17:08
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +222 $22 8¢ $19 $-3 07-05 12:14
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$0 07-02 05:57
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +20 $18 90¢ $18 +$0 07-02 17:10
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +20 $17 89¢ $18 +$1 07-01 16:32
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +20 $16 88¢ $18 +$1 07-02 03:52
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? No +20 $16 86¢ $17 +$1 07-05 15:02