Mortified-Grey — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

44.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$487

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$369

17 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-14 19:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

84% 60% +$4

Crypto

14% — —

Politics

2% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	-88	$-86	99¢	$-87	$-1	05-11 21:08
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?	No	+50	$40	100¢	$50	+$10	05-14 17:26
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15?	No	+50	$47	100¢	$50	+$3	05-14 19:47
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	-31	$-23	89¢	$-27	$-5	05-11 21:08
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14?	No	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$1	05-14 16:46
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw?	No	+20	$17	100¢	$20	+$3	05-14 16:46
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on May 15?	No	+20	$20	100¢	$20	$-0	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 15?	No	+20	$20	100¢	$20	$-0	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 15?	No	+20	$20	99¢	$20	$-0	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 15?	No	+20	$20	98¢	$20	$-0	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 15?	No	+20	$17	91¢	$18	+$1	05-14 14:01
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	No	-6	$-6	99¢	$-6	$-0	05-11 21:08
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	05-14 18:09
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	05-14 18:09
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 15?	No	+20	$3	11¢	$2	$-1	05-14 14:04
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?	No	+50	$36	0¢	$0	$-36	05-14 17:26
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	-19	$-2	0¢	$-0	+$2	05-13 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 19:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x086497…
05-14 18:09:06	Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb5afe3…
05-14 18:09:06	Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf2aaad…
05-14 17:26:33	Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xba5f82…
05-14 17:26:33	Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xf683a2…
05-14 16:46:37	Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x8730a7…
05-14 16:46:37	Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xaaa466…
05-14 16:00:30	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 14?	No	BUY	124	56¢	$69	0x849d49…
05-14 14:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf8fea6…
05-14 14:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x80dc9a…
05-14 14:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x48a8a5…
05-14 14:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 15?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xeacb1d…
05-14 14:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9ed061…
05-14 14:01:08	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 15?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x369278…
05-13 23:06:11	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	19	10¢	$2	0xb17d48…
05-12 13:12:56	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2701f7…
05-12 13:12:56	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x3f2657…
05-12 09:32:32	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?	No	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x7acd87…
05-11 21:08:43	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb0b676…
05-11 21:08:43	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xc08422…
05-11 21:08:41	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	31	73¢	$23	0x46044b…
05-11 21:08:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	88	98¢	$86	0xb8943d…
05-10 20:31:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5db166…
05-10 20:31:36	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x06a9a0…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6	15	$1.77K	35	05-14 20:08
Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905	11	$851	39	05-14 18:09
Wise-Keyboard 0x27ab…e521	9	$11.8K	290	05-14 20:12
Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507	9	$3.14K	93	05-14 20:09
Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e	9	$992	47	05-13 22:12
Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad	9	$763	29	05-14 20:12
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	8	$1.82K	71	05-14 20:07
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	7	$1.48K	31	05-14 18:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$86	0	88	-88	open	—	05-11 21:08
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 14?	1	$69	124	0	+124	open	—	05-14 16:00
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 15?	1	$47	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 19:47
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?	1	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 17:26
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?	1	$36	50	0	+50	open	—	05-14 17:26
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	1	$23	0	31	-31	open	—	05-11 21:08
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on May 15?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 15?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 15?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 15?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:04
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-14?	1	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 16:46
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 15?	1	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:01
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw?	1	$17	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 16:46
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	No	$-0	05-11 21:08
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-12 13:12
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?	1	$7	0	7	-7	No	$-0	05-10 20:31
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	1	$6	0	6	-6	open	—	05-11 21:08
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-14 18:09
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-14 18:09
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	1	$4	0	10	-10	Yes	+$4	05-10 20:31
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 15?	1	$3	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 14:04
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	1	$2	0	19	-19	open	—	05-13 23:06
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$1	10	0	+10	Yes	$-1	05-12 13:12
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?	1	$1	0	22	-22	Yes	+$1	05-12 09:32