Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
open
Total volume
$231
Trades
32
Unique wallets
19
Liquidity
$1,794
Latest YES mid
11¢
Latest NO mid
89¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 07-02 10:37
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | — | $22 | $22 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $10 | $29 | $19 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 3 | — | $11 | $11 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| unranked | 12 | $10 | $38 | $28 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x8550…408b | Yes | +42 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 19:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x209f…1290 | Yes | +41 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 19:45 |
| Wordy-Polarization 0xf1f6…297f | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-02 10:37 |
| Stylish-Lip 0x4540…1ede | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-03 15:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +9 | $8 | $28 | 2 | 07-02 10:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-24 19:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-24 19:45 |
| Ugly-Colorlessness 0xb323…e19f | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-24 22:56 |
| Alarming-Deed 0xf06d…44df | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-02 04:15 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 10:37:14 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 11 | 90¢ | $10 | 0x3a67a9… |
| 07-02 10:37:14 | Wordy-Polarization 0xf1f6…297f | No | BUY | 11 | 90¢ | $10 | 0x3a67a9… |
| 07-02 04:15:35 | Alarming-Deed 0xf06d…44df | No | BUY | 1 | 88¢ | $1 | 0xa05cee… |
| 07-02 04:15:35 | (anonymous) 0x84de…00c6 | No | SELL | 1 | 88¢ | $1 | 0xa05cee… |
| 06-24 22:56:44 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 3 | 91¢ | $3 | 0x54bd0a… |
| 06-24 22:56:44 | Ugly-Colorlessness 0xb323…e19f | No | BUY | 3 | 91¢ | $3 | 0x54bd0a… |
| 06-24 19:45:02 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x87c017… |
| 06-24 19:45:02 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x87c017… |
| 06-24 19:45:02 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x87c017… |
| 06-24 19:45:02 | (anonymous) 0x57cc…9f51 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x87c017… |
| 06-24 19:45:02 | (anonymous) 0x209f…1290 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x87c017… |
| 06-21 21:12:02 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 21 | 91¢ | $19 | 0x398aae… |
| 06-21 21:12:02 | (anonymous) 0x5eed…ab36 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x398aae… |
| 06-14 18:23:04 | (anonymous) 0x84de…00c6 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xd5ab18… |
| 06-14 18:23:04 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xd5ab18… |
| 06-14 18:18:46 | (anonymous) 0x59f7…7ff9 | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x5e2af3… |
| 06-14 18:18:46 | (anonymous) 0x57cc…9f51 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x5e2af3… |
| 06-13 15:27:39 | (anonymous) 0x59f7…7ff9 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x68bbdf… |
| 06-13 15:27:39 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x68bbdf… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 6 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x055dc8… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Grotesque-Newsletter 0xc5cb…95ea | Yes | SELL | 6 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x055dc8… |
| 06-12 12:41:19 | Daring-Blinker 0x755d…6acc | Yes | SELL | 58 | 12¢ | $7 | 0xd98924… |
| 06-12 12:41:19 | (anonymous) 0x57cc…9f51 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xd98924… |
| 06-12 12:41:19 | (anonymous) 0x8709…0ec6 | No | SELL | 100 | 88¢ | $88 | 0xd98924… |
| 06-11 19:13:40 | Daring-Blinker 0x755d…6acc | Yes | SELL | 42 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x513176… |
| 06-11 19:13:40 | (anonymous) 0x8550…408b | Yes | BUY | 42 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x513176… |
| 06-03 15:22:10 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | No | SELL | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xa68f47… |
| 06-03 15:22:10 | Stylish-Lip 0x4540…1ede | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xa68f47… |
| 06-03 15:00:46 | Itchy-Digger 0xc9ef…1935 | No | SELL | 7 | 87¢ | $6 | 0x6ee440… |
| 06-03 15:00:46 | (anonymous) 0x57cc…9f51 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x6ee440… |
| 05-31 20:41:49 | (anonymous) 0x57cc…9f51 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xb1263c… |
| 05-31 20:41:49 | Circular-Sandpaper-Larder 0x058f…4883 | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0xb1263c… |