Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-07 House election by 12% or more?
open
Total volume
$309
$40 in 24h
Trades
57
Unique wallets
20
Liquidity
$10,785
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-27 16:42
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-11.2¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $95
vs crowd: 11% YES on $277)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $15 | $149 | $134 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $13 | $27 | $14 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $3 | $70 | $67 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | — | $95 | $95 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $0 | $105 | $104 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Below median | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 9 | $28 | $37 | $9 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +149 | $8 | $8 | 6 | 10-27 16:42 |
| Joyous-Catalyst 0xcaff…e3ad | No | +70 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 09-03 12:23 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +47 | $44 | $44 | 3 | 10-08 00:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +45 | $45 | $45 | 3 | 10-10 03:13 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 4 | 09-23 10:33 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +25 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 09-06 18:18 |
| Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-03 12:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x57a8…d092 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-06 02:47 |
| Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 09-04 07:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x2200…474f | Yes | +13 | -$1 | $1 | 3 | 10-26 21:42 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +12 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 09-08 03:15 |
| Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 09-09 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x96ef…3d36 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 09-23 10:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-06 18:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-08 03:15 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +1 | $0 | $6 | 12 | 10-27 16:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 16:42:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 81 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc7f5fa… |
| 10-27 16:42:20 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 81 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc7f5fa… |
| 10-26 21:42:18 | (anonymous) 0x2200…474f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xd8443b… |
| 10-26 21:42:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xd8443b… |
| 10-26 21:42:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6bcf17… |
| 10-26 21:42:14 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x6bcf17… |
| 10-10 10:51:06 | Which-Cyclooxygenase 0x5dd5…1fcf | Yes | SELL | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0cfe9a… |
| 10-10 10:51:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0cfe9a… |
| 10-10 05:18:54 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 14 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x85fb28… |
| 10-10 05:18:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x85fb28… |
| 10-10 03:13:50 | Which-Cyclooxygenase 0x5dd5…1fcf | Yes | BUY | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6ce792… |
| 10-10 03:13:50 | (anonymous) 0x2200…474f | Yes | BUY | 13 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6ce792… |
| 10-10 03:13:50 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x6ce792… |
| 10-08 00:47:31 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x1d45e6… |
| 10-08 00:47:31 | (anonymous) 0x2200…474f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1d45e6… |
| 09-23 10:35:34 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9ad68f… |
| 09-23 10:35:34 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 14 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9ad68f… |
| 09-23 10:35:34 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x9ad68f… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x053da3… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | (anonymous) 0x96ef…3d36 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xbe2ef1… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc6ed1e… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xbe2ef1… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x053da3… |
| 09-23 10:33:26 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc6ed1e… |
| 09-18 15:30:18 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xaeaee2… |
| 09-18 15:30:18 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xaeaee2… |
| 09-09 17:16:03 | Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5e194b… |
| 09-09 17:16:03 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5e194b… |
| 09-09 17:09:37 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x06ab66… |
| 09-09 17:09:37 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x06ab66… |
| 09-08 03:15:07 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x35d5f6… |
| 09-08 03:15:07 | (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x35d5f6… |
| 09-06 18:18:04 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xafcaa3… |
| 09-06 18:18:04 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xafcaa3… |
| 09-06 18:18:04 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xafcaa3… |
| 09-06 02:47:12 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xfd19a8… |
| 09-06 02:47:12 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xfd19a8… |
| 09-06 02:47:10 | (anonymous) 0x57a8…d092 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x2f64ce… |
| 09-06 02:47:10 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2f64ce… |
| 09-06 02:47:10 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 13¢ | $6 | 0x2f64ce… |
| 09-06 02:47:10 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x2f64ce… |
| 09-04 07:51:28 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x8108bf… |
| 09-04 07:51:28 | Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | No | BUY | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x8108bf… |
| 09-04 07:51:28 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x8108bf… |
| 09-04 07:44:54 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 8 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xd90626… |
| 09-04 07:44:54 | Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | No | BUY | 8 | 92¢ | $8 | 0xd90626… |
| 09-03 12:23:06 | Joyous-Catalyst 0xcaff…e3ad | No | BUY | 70 | 86¢ | $60 | 0x2ddbe4… |
| 09-03 12:23:06 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 14¢ | $7 | 0x2ddbe4… |
| 09-03 12:23:06 | Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x2ddbe4… |
| 08-27 02:46:31 | Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x0e1304… |
| 08-27 02:46:31 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 7 | 90¢ | $6 | 0xa3cc04… |
| 08-27 02:46:31 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x0e1304… |
| 08-27 02:46:31 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 7 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xa3cc04… |
| 08-20 04:12:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x90ba8a… |
| 08-20 04:12:45 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 15 | 88¢ | $13 | 0x90ba8a… |
| 08-20 03:07:16 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x27a4f8… |
| 08-20 03:07:16 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 13 | 88¢ | $11 | 0x27a4f8… |