Serpentine-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved

Trades

384

lifetime

Volume

$13.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-03 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

44% 100% +$0

Politics

35% 0% $-11

Crypto

16% 100% +$0

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 75k in february 2026 685 423	5	$1.7K	2,401	0	+2,401	open	—	01-31 08:38
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	3	$772	400	400	+0	open	—	01-16 07:31
ice forced to unmask by february 28	2	$671	360	360	+0	open	—	02-11 08:13
internet access restored in iran by friday 263	4	$613	424	424	+0	open	—	01-27 09:06
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$592	400	400	+0	open	—	01-16 07:31
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$584	400	400	+0	open	—	01-17 07:18
us evacuates baghdad embassy by january 31	2	$402	210	210	+0	open	—	01-20 07:49
will the liberal democratic party win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	2	$381	200	200	+0	open	—	01-22 07:28
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	3	$366	200	200	+0	open	—	01-22 07:28
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$358	200	200	+0	open	—	02-11 08:13
ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by january 31	2	$208	120	120	+0	open	—	01-11 13:40
atp alcaraz djokovi 2026 02 01	1	$200	741	0	+741	open	—	02-01 07:11
us strike on colombia by january 31	2	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	01-21 08:16
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	1	$192	200	0	+200	open	—	02-17 08:28
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	2	$191	100	100	+0	open	—	01-28 16:18
gpt 5pt3 released by january 31 2026	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	01-28 16:18
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$170	0	200	-200	open	—	07-03 18:42
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$164	100	100	+0	open	—	01-24 08:29
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	2	$153	100	100	+0	open	—	02-11 08:13
atp darderi sinner 2026 01 25	2	$107	110	0	+110	open	—	01-25 10:37
will mills flip platner for maine dem senate primary winner by january 31	2	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	01-06 08:07
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	1	$95	0	100	-100	open	—	07-03 18:43
us bank failure by january 31	1	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	01-01 13:51
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	1	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	02-17 08:28
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	2	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	01-28 16:18
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	4	$85	100	0	+100	open	—	02-17 08:52
ex faze members form new organization by march 31	1	$82	0	100	-100	open	—	01-04 08:26
venezuela election scheduled by january 31 2026	2	$75	40	40	+0	open	—	01-16 07:32
cilia flores released from custody by january 31 2026	3	$73	40	40	+0	open	—	01-11 13:40
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?	3	$72	40	40	+0	open	—	01-12 07:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 18:52:07	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xfa7bdc…
07-03 18:51:59	Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x2c26a9…
07-03 18:51:46	Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xf02452…
07-03 18:51:31	Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xd78830…
07-03 18:51:25	Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xe06f5d…
07-03 18:51:11	Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x0fb6b7…
07-03 18:51:04	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x42f7f3…
07-03 18:50:56	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x096aa2…
07-03 18:50:50	Blue wave in 2026?	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xc220f8…
07-03 18:50:44	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	13¢	$5	0xd42199…
07-03 18:50:20	Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?	No	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0xa4b67f…
07-03 18:50:14	Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x985e20…
07-03 18:50:08	Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0x7a46d0…
07-03 18:50:01	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x9331b6…
07-03 18:49:37	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x7649e6…
07-03 18:49:29	Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0xac8fa3…
07-03 18:49:14	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x9cfa71…
07-03 18:49:07	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xfa6a90…
07-03 18:48:59	Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x3a5971…
07-03 18:48:52	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xd72adc…
07-03 18:48:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x834e19…
07-03 18:48:34	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x1aebff…
07-03 18:48:25	Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xe839ef…
07-03 18:48:19	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xee4332…
07-03 18:48:10	Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xd598f3…
07-03 18:47:53	will grard larcher be reelected as president of the french senate	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xf2dfa7…
07-03 18:47:44	Obama federally charged before 2027?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xf41d0c…
07-03 18:47:37	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x1c8d4c…
07-03 18:47:22	Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0xee5381…
07-03 18:47:16	Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xa60d5f…
07-03 18:46:59	Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x636081…
07-03 18:46:50	Obama arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x13fecf…
07-03 18:46:44	Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xd63780…
07-03 18:45:59	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x7a4862…
07-03 18:45:52	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x6a191d…
07-03 18:45:44	Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x4f4c81…
07-03 18:45:37	Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	Sinner	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x3536ae…
07-03 18:45:29	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x056afb…
07-03 18:45:23	Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	10¢	$12	0x6f459d…
07-03 18:45:14	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xcbcf1b…
07-03 18:45:08	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	158	9¢	$14	0x9c0807…
07-03 18:44:59	Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x66bfd2…
07-03 18:44:49	Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xd00b5d…
07-03 18:44:40	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x745855…
07-03 18:44:25	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xc8ea53…
07-03 18:44:08	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x853f0f…
07-03 18:43:52	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x0dd099…
07-03 18:43:44	Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x50a9ac…
07-03 18:43:16	Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	Yes	SELL	715	4¢	$26	0xb30fee…
07-03 18:43:01	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x2e61dd…
07-03 18:42:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0xffbfaa…
06-26 07:27:50	Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x34426e…
06-26 07:27:40	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x8564ef…
06-26 07:27:25	Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x3d0836…
06-26 07:19:38	EU dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x58ae77…
06-26 07:19:22	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xbf0263…
06-26 07:19:05	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x019553…
06-26 07:18:53	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x68126f…
06-26 07:18:46	EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xa4e1b3…
06-26 07:18:38	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb7bc7e…
06-16 07:29:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x1c98c2…
06-02 07:40:39	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0xde349e…
06-01 06:31:13	Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x472d7e…
05-21 12:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21?	Down	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xff32d8…
05-21 12:17:07	Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar	Mariano Navone	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa46adb…
05-17 08:15:14	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x78eed0…
05-15 07:38:39	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x954f95…
05-09 09:28:50	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x42832d…
04-22 15:12:34	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 22?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbfa4ae…
04-17 08:36:34	Will the DHS shutdown end between April 16-19 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x7d2356…
04-16 08:43:14	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x9ab6cb…
04-16 08:43:00	NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Total Games O/U 4.5	Over 4.5	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x5584f6…
04-16 08:42:40	NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb23725…
04-13 04:39:15	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x0acf4d…
04-13 04:38:35	Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.75 in April?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3fd8a8…
04-13 04:37:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xcaaf02…
04-11 08:01:29	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xea37e4…
04-08 21:10:39	Will anyone propose at the Met Gala?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x45c2eb…
04-08 15:44:05	Will anyone propose at the Met Gala?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x89dc34…
04-08 15:43:45	will the virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x6bab8e…
04-02 07:37:09	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x87fd2c…
04-02 07:36:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xef7aeb…
04-02 07:36:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x59ebaf…
04-02 07:35:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xd7d89a…
04-01 08:22:33	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 3	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xb1999d…
04-01 08:22:17	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xdc9448…
04-01 08:21:57	will the super mario galaxy movie score at least 45 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x9399cb…
04-01 08:21:43	will the drama score at least 72 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x03f3d1…
03-30 17:14:29	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 31 april 6	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xbb4801…
03-30 16:08:45	fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x690fce…
03-30 16:08:45	fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x4c0921…
03-30 16:08:19	any of the stolen kitkats recovered by april 5	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xf89a1b…
03-30 16:07:45	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 31 april 6	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x975a54…
03-29 09:15:36	atp ivashka kjaer 2026 03 29	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x366344…
03-29 08:20:50	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0x9c2915…
03-29 08:12:14	atp ivashka kjaer 2026 03 29	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc4cadb…
03-29 08:11:28	Will the NBA alter draft lottery rules?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x26c195…
03-29 08:11:02	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x22fe68…
03-23 15:22:03	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase march 24 30	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x394c97…
03-23 15:21:39	will laguardia airport lga be open to departures by 200 pm et on march 23 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9a05d3…