Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,641
$7 in 24h
Trades
58
Unique wallets
21
Liquidity
$10,224
Latest YES mid
97¢
Latest NO mid
3¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-12 01:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
NO holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $38 | — | +$38 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $535 | $19 | +$516 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $247 | $0 | +$247 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $7 | — | +$7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $5 | $5 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $29 | — | +$29 |
| Median | 7 | $7 | — | +$7 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $5 | $13 | $8 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $38 | — | +$38 |
| unranked | 3 | $748 | — | +$748 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | +521 | $506 | $506 | 9 | 06-12 01:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | Yes | +250 | $242 | $242 | 1 | 06-02 21:22 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | No | +100 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 05-29 08:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | +25 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-02 21:22 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | +7 | $0 | $0 | 7 | 06-12 00:54 |
| Defenseless-Placement 0x275c…6090 | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-28 07:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 01:16:18 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9fee8a… |
| 06-12 01:16:18 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x11d560… |
| 06-12 01:16:18 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x11d560… |
| 06-12 01:16:18 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9fee8a… |
| 06-12 01:16:16 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x23b4ad… |
| 06-12 01:16:16 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x23b4ad… |
| 06-12 01:16:15 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x3663ed… |
| 06-12 01:16:15 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x3663ed… |
| 06-12 01:16:13 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x1668b4… |
| 06-12 01:16:13 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xfee56f… |
| 06-12 01:16:13 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xfee56f… |
| 06-12 01:16:13 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x1668b4… |
| 06-12 01:16:12 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x28f716… |
| 06-12 01:16:12 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x28f716… |
| 06-12 00:54:58 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x96e76c… |
| 06-12 00:54:58 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x96e76c… |
| 06-12 00:54:55 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xb66307… |
| 06-12 00:54:55 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb66307… |
| 06-12 00:54:55 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xadaeca… |
| 06-12 00:54:55 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xadaeca… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x51864e… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x88c14e… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x88c14e… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x932e59… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | Yes | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5a78e9… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x51864e… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5a78e9… |
| 06-12 00:54:54 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x932e59… |
| 06-11 07:41:28 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 213 | 97¢ | $207 | 0xe59da6… |
| 06-11 07:41:28 | Complete-Draft 0x9974…2840 | Yes | SELL | 213 | 97¢ | $207 | 0xe59da6… |
| 06-02 21:22:45 | Awkward-Stem 0x3e28…3e73 | Yes | SELL | 156 | 98¢ | $152 | 0x860943… |
| 06-02 21:22:45 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 156 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x860943… |
| 06-02 21:22:43 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb08817… |
| 06-02 21:22:43 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | BUY | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb08817… |
| 06-02 21:22:17 | (anonymous) 0x515e…ec0d | Yes | BUY | 250 | 97¢ | $242 | 0x6d19bf… |
| 06-02 21:22:17 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 158 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x6d19bf… |
| 06-02 21:22:17 | Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b | Yes | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $38 | 0x6d19bf… |
| 06-02 21:22:17 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | No | BUY | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x6d19bf… |
| 06-02 21:22:17 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x6d19bf… |
| 06-01 22:06:27 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 96¢ | $192 | 0x53b8ed… |
| 06-01 22:06:27 | Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b | Yes | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x53b8ed… |
| 06-01 22:06:27 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x53b8ed… |
| 06-01 22:06:27 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | No | SELL | 130 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x53b8ed… |
| 05-29 23:00:20 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | SELL | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x488844… |
| 05-29 23:00:20 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | No | BUY | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x488844… |
| 05-29 21:36:50 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | SELL | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x4c3658… |
| 05-29 21:36:50 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | No | BUY | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x4c3658… |
| 05-29 08:11:34 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 155 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x5843d5… |
| 05-29 08:11:34 | Awkward-Stem 0x3e28…3e73 | Yes | SELL | 155 | 98¢ | $152 | 0x5843d5… |
| 05-29 08:11:30 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x337e8b… |
| 05-29 08:11:30 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | No | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x337e8b… |
| 05-29 08:11:29 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6d4772… |
| 05-29 08:11:29 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6d4772… |
| 05-29 08:11:27 | (anonymous) 0x725e…596b | Yes | BUY | 300 | 97¢ | $292 | 0x9000fe… |
| 05-29 08:11:27 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | No | BUY | 45 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x9000fe… |
| 05-29 08:11:27 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 255 | 3¢ | $7 | 0x9000fe… |
| 05-28 07:57:57 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | No | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9990d2… |
| 05-28 07:57:57 | Defenseless-Placement 0x275c…6090 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x9990d2… |