Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$72

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

Trades

168

lifetime

Volume

$2.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$1.38K

30 positions

First seen

2026-09-18

last 10-22 16:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

53% 88% +$1

Politics

42% 89% -$73

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+472	$444	96¢	$453	+$9	10-22 16:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+128	$107	82¢	$104	-$3	10-22 15:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+114	$104	90¢	$103	-$2	10-22 15:05
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+67	$61	90¢	$60	$0	10-22 16:43
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+56	$52	92¢	$52	+$0	10-22 16:43
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	+59	$51	84¢	$49	-$2	10-22 16:43
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+49	$46	94¢	$47	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+48	$43	86¢	$42	-$2	10-22 15:05
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+36	$35	98¢	$35	$0	10-22 15:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+32	$31	98¢	$31	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+33	$32	92¢	$30	-$2	10-22 16:43
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+56	$41	50¢	$29	-$12	10-22 15:05
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+49	$25	56¢	$27	+$2	10-22 15:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+24	$24	100¢	$24	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+30	$22	74¢	$22	$0	10-22 15:05
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+23	$21	92¢	$21	$0	10-22 15:05
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+22	$19	94¢	$21	+$1	10-22 15:05
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+21	$20	98¢	$20	$0	10-22 15:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	+19	$19	99¢	$19	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+28	$19	68¢	$19	$0	10-22 15:05
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+19	$18	98¢	$18	$0	10-22 15:05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+27	$18	68¢	$18	$0	10-22 15:05
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+19	$18	96¢	$18	$0	10-22 15:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	+18	$18	100¢	$18	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$18	84¢	$17	-$1	10-22 15:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+17	$16	97¢	$17	+$0	10-22 15:05
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+17	$16	95¢	$16	$0	10-22 15:05
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+17	$16	95¢	$16	$0	10-22 15:05
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+15	$15	96¢	$15	+$0	10-22 15:05
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+15	$14	96¢	$14	$0	10-22 15:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 16:56:02	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x41ecbf…
10-22 16:43:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	7¢	$4	0xd21ec0…
10-22 16:43:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xb75e8d…
10-22 16:43:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	472	94¢	$444	0x8aac9b…
10-22 16:43:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b1132…
10-22 16:43:57	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	77¢	$12	0x3e8cd1…
10-22 16:43:56	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0xf63efd…
10-22 16:43:56	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0xeef326…
10-22 16:43:56	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xdaae02…
10-22 16:43:56	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xa2cd70…
10-22 16:43:56	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x890098…
10-22 16:43:56	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in October?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$3	0x1048ee…
10-22 16:43:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x0fc2f6…
10-22 16:43:54	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xf17272…
10-22 16:43:54	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xecd97e…
10-22 16:43:54	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xe5b9f4…
10-22 16:43:54	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $130 in October?	Yes	BUY	38	32¢	$12	0xd78374…
10-22 16:43:54	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5b0aed…
10-22 16:43:54	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of October?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x386908…
10-22 16:43:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0xc6bcdd…
10-22 16:43:53	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0xc0e64b…
10-22 16:43:53	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	16¢	$8	0xc05aee…
10-22 16:43:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0x7b1d5c…
10-22 16:43:53	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	32¢	$8	0x74e170…
10-22 16:43:53	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x15de89…
10-22 16:43:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0xf8e218…
10-22 16:43:51	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x913681…
10-22 16:43:50	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	4¢	$3	0x94fc67…
10-22 16:43:50	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	29	62¢	$18	0x90b5be…
10-22 16:43:50	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x55b9a8…
10-22 16:43:50	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x100526…
10-22 16:43:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0x093b48…
10-22 16:43:48	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x68e8e7…
10-22 16:43:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	86	92¢	$79	0x31cf6a…
10-22 15:05:30	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	41	10¢	$4	0xf676e3…
10-22 15:05:30	Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd4794a…
10-22 15:05:30	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x96425c…
10-22 15:05:30	China ballistic missile launch by December 31?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x8f96a0…
10-22 15:05:30	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x53cdbd…
10-22 15:05:30	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x319c35…
10-22 15:05:30	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x09900d…
10-22 15:05:29	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf94506…
10-22 15:05:29	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$5	0xcd37c5…
10-22 15:05:29	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xc65d81…
10-22 15:05:29	Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xc15e0c…
10-22 15:05:29	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xbb0dc1…
10-22 15:05:29	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xafb235…
10-22 15:05:29	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x93b8bc…
10-22 15:05:27	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	111	5¢	$6	0xff2f7e…
10-22 15:05:27	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xad54c6…
10-22 15:05:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x8e938c…
10-22 15:05:27	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x89d382…
10-22 15:05:27	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x4b3f75…
10-22 15:05:27	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x466fe6…
10-22 15:05:27	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0x119ea2…
10-22 15:05:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x06b671…
10-22 15:05:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xc08a45…
10-22 15:05:26	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xbb3d97…
10-22 15:05:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa13ad1…
10-22 15:05:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x804092…
10-22 15:05:26	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x48767d…
10-22 15:05:23	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xf1ce30…
10-22 15:05:23	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xcdd2b3…
10-22 15:05:23	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0xb3e1a7…
10-22 15:05:23	NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x62fcd2…
10-22 15:05:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x50e928…
10-22 15:05:23	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $82.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4f3e35…
10-22 15:05:23	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x25cccb…
10-22 15:05:23	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x0e2f46…
10-22 15:05:21	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0xfefc0a…
10-22 15:05:21	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$9	0xa2025a…
10-22 15:05:21	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x7271ac…
10-22 15:05:21	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$9	0x5adcc5…
10-22 15:05:21	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x153636…
10-22 15:05:20	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	37¢	$13	0xd59c44…
10-22 15:05:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xca4ae4…
10-22 15:05:20	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xca1057…
10-22 15:05:20	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb871fa…
10-22 15:05:20	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xb64757…
10-22 15:05:20	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xaa6db1…
10-22 15:05:20	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$9	0x90c997…
10-22 15:05:20	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x79b8a6…
10-22 15:05:20	Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x07af19…
10-22 15:05:18	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	91¢	$12	0xf06d08…
10-22 15:05:18	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0xe6f73d…
10-22 15:05:18	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	5¢	$6	0xc6b076…
10-22 15:05:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb710b1…
10-22 15:05:18	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x81b3a6…
10-22 15:05:18	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0x46d98c…
10-22 15:05:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0x2cc691…
10-22 15:05:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	88¢	$15	0xf4b5f6…
10-22 15:05:17	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xb93216…
10-22 15:05:17	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	16	85¢	$13	0x58abdb…
10-22 15:05:17	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$13	0x48a6d3…
10-22 15:05:17	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0x413e67…
10-22 15:05:17	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x3c0309…
10-22 15:05:17	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x26ee7c…
10-22 15:05:15	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	27	68¢	$18	0xf891de…
10-22 15:05:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xcb0816…
10-22 15:05:15	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$18	0xa772d4…