Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-11 House election by 10%-15%?
open
Total volume
$421
Trades
88
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$11,737
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-27
last 10-29 04:11
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-12.7¢
(top1%: 5% YES on $252
vs crowd: 18% YES on $376)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 14 | $27 | $230 | $202 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $24 | $63 | $38 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $16 | $16 | $1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 13 | $13 | $238 | $225 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Below median | 2 | $0 | $6 | $6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $27 | $64 | $38 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $23 | — | +$23 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | +79 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 10-24 02:06 |
| These-Woodshed 0xd7b6…2ccd | Yes | +76 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-29 01:13 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +51 | $51 | $51 | 3 | 10-23 06:37 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +43 | $38 | $38 | 3 | 09-24 12:12 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +41 | $3 | $16 | 10 | 10-15 01:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +40 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-15 00:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +40 | $36 | $36 | 2 | 10-15 00:08 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +38 | $36 | $36 | 2 | 10-07 15:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +35 | $34 | $34 | 2 | 10-21 18:31 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +35 | $31 | $31 | 1 | 09-20 10:57 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +35 | $4 | $4 | 4 | 10-14 23:08 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | +32 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 10-29 04:11 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 10-23 06:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +25 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 09-20 11:27 |
| Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | +21 | -$4 | $27 | 3 | 10-15 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-24 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 09-24 12:12 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +15 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-20 10:57 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +13 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 08-27 00:24 |
| Ripe-Put 0x7b18…efae | No | +12 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 09-02 23:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-21 18:44 |
| Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 09-24 12:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x6325…84d0 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-27 00:24 |
| Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-24 01:58 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 04:11:52 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8ead20… |
| 10-29 04:11:52 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8ead20… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf1b60… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | These-Woodshed 0xd7b6…2ccd | Yes | BUY | 76 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x2dca97… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2dca97… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2dca97… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2dca97… |
| 10-29 01:13:47 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf1b60… |
| 10-24 02:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xddcebd… |
| 10-24 02:06:05 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xddcebd… |
| 10-24 01:58:33 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x62c7d9… |
| 10-24 01:58:33 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x62c7d9… |
| 10-24 01:57:53 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbc4d3a… |
| 10-24 01:57:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbc4d3a… |
| 10-23 06:37:05 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x46dac7… |
| 10-23 06:37:05 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x46dac7… |
| 10-23 06:37:05 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 33 | 99¢ | $32 | 0xf9bcfd… |
| 10-23 06:37:05 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf9bcfd… |
| 10-21 18:44:30 | (anonymous) 0x8e1f…991b | Yes | BUY | 0 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe49f64… |
| 10-21 18:44:30 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xe49f64… |
| 10-21 18:44:30 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe49f64… |
| 10-21 18:31:06 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0b2f53… |
| 10-21 18:31:06 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 12 | 99¢ | $12 | 0x0b2f53… |
| 10-21 18:15:09 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x412fb2… |
| 10-21 18:15:09 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x412fb2… |
| 10-15 01:09:07 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x90c4a5… |
| 10-15 01:09:07 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x90c4a5… |
| 10-15 00:17:07 | (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x90ef4c… |
| 10-15 00:17:07 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x90ef4c… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x48841d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 11¢ | $7 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 2 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x48841d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 19 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x48841d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-15 00:08:55 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | SELL | 142 | 11¢ | $16 | 0xa7f94d… |
| 10-14 23:08:04 | (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xc62abc… |
| 10-14 23:08:04 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xc62abc… |
| 10-14 01:18:57 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 22 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x2a104a… |
| 10-14 01:18:57 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 142 | 8¢ | $11 | 0x2a104a… |
| 10-14 01:18:57 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 82 | 8¢ | $7 | 0x2a104a… |
| 10-14 01:18:57 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x2a104a… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xbbf653… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xbece1f… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 3 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xbbf653… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 23 | 94¢ | $22 | 0xbbf653… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 28 | 94¢ | $26 | 0x2c1d2c… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 28 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x2c1d2c… |
| 10-07 15:16:02 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xbece1f… |
| 09-27 11:23:35 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 3 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x8d3757… |
| 09-27 11:23:35 | Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | No | SELL | 3 | 90¢ | $3 | 0x8d3757… |
| 09-24 12:12:31 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xb8a1a3… |
| 09-24 12:12:31 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xb8a1a3… |
| 09-24 12:12:30 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xe07bbe… |
| 09-24 12:12:30 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xe07bbe… |
| 09-24 12:12:25 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x56ce3d… |
| 09-24 12:12:25 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x56ce3d… |
| 09-24 12:12:16 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x901cd4… |
| 09-24 12:12:16 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x901cd4… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x154062… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x5d5a58… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x6e92ca… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x5d5a58… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x154062… |
| 09-24 12:12:15 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x6e92ca… |
| 09-20 11:27:55 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x1d6e01… |
| 09-20 11:27:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x1d6e01… |
| 09-20 11:18:03 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x97435f… |
| 09-20 11:18:03 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x97435f… |
| 09-20 10:57:16 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xd9691e… |
| 09-20 10:57:16 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xd9691e… |
| 09-20 10:57:12 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x229e27… |
| 09-20 10:57:12 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x229e27… |
| 09-20 10:57:12 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 35 | 88¢ | $31 | 0x229e27… |
| 09-02 23:56:43 | Ripe-Put 0x7b18…efae | No | BUY | 12 | 90¢ | $11 | 0x983479… |
| 09-02 23:56:43 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x983479… |
| 09-02 23:56:42 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 3 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xa763d7… |
| 09-02 23:56:42 | Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xa763d7… |
| 09-02 23:56:42 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xa763d7… |
| 09-02 23:56:42 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 18 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x2837ff… |
| 09-02 23:56:42 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 18 | 90¢ | $16 | 0x2837ff… |
| 08-27 00:24:15 | (anonymous) 0x6325…84d0 | No | BUY | 7 | 83¢ | $6 | 0xe08434… |
| 08-27 00:24:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xe08434… |
| 08-27 00:24:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x15d21c… |
| 08-27 00:24:06 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 13 | 84¢ | $11 | 0x15d21c… |