Realized P&L (24h)
—
Unrealized P&L
-$5.04K
Hit rate
—
Resolved (24h)
0
Trades (24h)
2
5,403 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$1.19K
$1.19M lifetime
Avg / trade
$219
Open exposure
$234.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 11-02 22:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Crypto
50%
89%
+$548
Other
28%
78%
+$615
Politics
22%
79%
-$2,902
Sports
0%
64%
+$10
Tech
0%
100%
+$128
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk
• peak 110 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +35,764 | $33,919 | 97¢ | $34.8K | +$862 | 11-01 17:08 | |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | +22,150 | $21,662 | 99¢ | $21.9K | +$255 | 11-02 07:22 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -20,625 | -$20,407 | 100¢ | $-20573 | -$167 | 07-06 11:16 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +17,461 | $16,721 | 96¢ | $16.8K | +$111 | 10-20 10:53 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +14,826 | $14,232 | 98¢ | $14.5K | +$231 | 10-30 01:06 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +12,852 | $11,943 | 94¢ | $12.1K | +$203 | 10-29 02:00 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | +31,954 | $13,433 | 36¢ | $11.6K | -$1,786 | 10-28 03:10 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,464 | $9,998 | 98¢ | $10.2K | +$209 | 10-26 12:45 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | -11,500 | -$8,827 | 81¢ | $-9355 | -$528 | 07-03 13:01 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +8,900 | $8,033 | 96¢ | $8.5K | +$466 | 10-28 20:31 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | -11,500 | -$6,847 | 64¢ | $-7308 | -$461 | 07-03 13:03 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -6,890 | -$5,846 | 96¢ | $-6600 | -$755 | 10-30 02:49 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +6,264 | $6,115 | 100¢ | $6.2K | +$127 | 11-01 01:28 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | +31,539 | $7,993 | 19¢ | $5.9K | -$2,111 | 10-27 12:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -5,000 | -$4,217 | 98¢ | $-4895 | -$678 | 10-08 04:29 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | +6,330 | $3,939 | 76¢ | $4.8K | +$840 | 11-01 16:58 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,802 | -$4,799 | 99¢ | $-4761 | +$37 | 08-21 01:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,662 | -$5,009 | 99¢ | $-4627 | +$381 | 09-11 02:44 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +3,836 | $3,581 | 98¢ | $3.8K | +$176 | 11-01 04:42 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | +20,000 | $3,997 | 18¢ | $3.7K | -$307 | 07-27 16:36 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -3,500 | -$3,385 | 99¢ | $-3463 | -$78 | 07-07 20:57 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +2,999 | $2,871 | 93¢ | $2.8K | -$71 | 10-19 19:46 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,887 | $2,681 | 92¢ | $2.7K | -$11 | 10-20 14:53 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,704 | $2,576 | 96¢ | $2.6K | +$28 | 10-19 22:44 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,086 | -$2,011 | 99¢ | $-2061 | -$49 | 08-28 18:53 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,000 | -$1,852 | 98¢ | $-1959 | -$107 | 10-08 04:31 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,824 | $1,673 | 97¢ | $1.8K | +$101 | 10-21 16:10 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | +20,000 | $2,782 | 8¢ | $1.7K | -$1,132 | 07-27 19:43 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,484 | $1,334 | 88¢ | $1.3K | -$20 | 10-31 21:50 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | +7,151 | $2,059 | 18¢ | $1.3K | -$808 | 11-01 01:18 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | 396 | $83.9K | 42,528 | 43,328 | -800 | open | — | 08-22 15:29 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 113 | $80.9K | 39,217 | 43,879 | -4,662 | open | — | 09-11 02:44 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 118 | $61.9K | 31,480 | 31,480 | +0 | open | — | 07-19 15:15 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 46 | $55.6K | 28,042 | 28,042 | +0 | Yes | +$139 | 04-28 04:21 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 88 | $33.9K | 35,764 | 0 | +35,764 | open | — | 11-01 17:08 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | 77 | $29.6K | 15,355 | 15,355 | +0 | open | — | 10-24 11:58 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 64 | $29.0K | 12,598 | 17,400 | -4,802 | open | — | 08-21 01:24 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | 63 | $26.1K | 24,376 | 2,226 | +22,150 | open | — | 11-02 07:22 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 87 | $25.9K | 13,338 | 13,338 | +0 | open | — | 10-13 02:20 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 99 | $21.2K | 12,971 | 9,135 | +3,836 | open | — | 11-01 04:42 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 190 | $20.8K | 32,554 | 12,100 | +20,454 | open | — | 10-28 03:10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 220 | $20.6K | 0 | 38,250 | -38,250 | open | — | 07-06 11:16 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 83 | $19.5K | 17,626 | 2,800 | +14,826 | open | — | 10-30 01:06 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 63 | $19.2K | 10,550 | 8,884 | +1,666 | No | +$54 | 03-30 19:26 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 20 | $18.0K | 9,053 | 9,053 | +0 | No | +$43 | 09-30 12:50 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | 71 | $17.7K | 17,962 | 501 | +17,461 | open | — | 10-20 10:53 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 135 | $17.7K | 33,139 | 13,100 | +20,039 | open | — | 10-27 12:13 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 20 | $15.0K | 11,266 | 3,934 | +7,333 | No | +$75 | 04-01 02:09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 25 | $14.7K | 4,636 | 11,526 | -6,890 | open | — | 10-30 02:49 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | 96 | $14.0K | 6,300 | 7,799 | -1,499 | No | +$46 | 06-14 19:09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 62 | $13.2K | 12,154 | 1,691 | +10,464 | open | — | 10-26 12:45 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 22 | $12.9K | 7,350 | 6,459 | +891 | open | — | 11-01 07:57 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | 33 | $12.4K | 9,457 | 3,194 | +6,264 | open | — | 11-01 01:28 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 24 | $11.9K | 7,903 | 4,309 | +3,594 | No | +$205 | 10-07 11:37 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | 27 | $11.9K | 12,852 | 0 | +12,852 | open | — | 10-29 02:00 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774 | 32 | $10.3K | 6,696 | 3,696 | +3,000 | No | +$40 | 03-30 13:06 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | 40 | $9.9K | 3,371 | 6,871 | -3,500 | open | — | 07-07 20:57 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 26 | $9.6K | 4,867 | 4,867 | +0 | No | +$72 | 10-30 19:19 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 9 | $9.5K | 9,000 | 500 | +8,500 | No | +$43 | 09-14 00:09 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749 | 52 | $9.3K | 6,949 | 2,555 | +4,394 | No | +$44 | 03-30 13:06 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||