Realized P&L (90d)
+$576
Unrealized P&L
-$5.35K
Hit rate
95.2%
Resolved (90d)
63
Trades (90d)
1,722
5,085 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$438.1K
$1.13M lifetime
Avg / trade
$223
Open exposure
$232.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-28 13:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 66 days
Categories
Crypto
51%
87%
+$443
Other
28%
77%
+$596
Politics
21%
78%
-$2,976
Sports
0%
64%
+$10
Tech
0%
100%
+$128
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk
• peak 73 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +34,764 | $32,947 | 97¢ | $33.6K | +$687 | 10-19 20:31 | |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | +22,630 | $22,151 | 99¢ | $22.4K | +$219 | 10-27 11:45 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -20,625 | -$20,407 | 100¢ | $-20594 | -$187 | 07-06 11:16 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +17,461 | $16,721 | 96¢ | $16.7K | -$46 | 10-20 10:53 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +14,826 | $14,234 | 96¢ | $14.3K | +$73 | 10-27 21:39 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | +31,954 | $13,433 | 38¢ | $12.2K | -$1,227 | 10-28 03:10 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +12,452 | $11,567 | 92¢ | $11.5K | -$48 | 10-24 12:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,464 | $9,998 | 97¢ | $10.2K | +$188 | 10-26 12:45 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | -11,500 | -$8,827 | 83¢ | $-9493 | -$666 | 07-03 13:01 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +9,400 | $8,498 | 92¢ | $8.7K | +$197 | 10-24 17:11 | |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | -11,500 | -$6,847 | 62¢ | $-7107 | -$260 | 07-03 13:03 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -6,520 | -$5,487 | 96¢ | $-6275 | -$788 | 10-19 07:27 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | +31,539 | $7,993 | 17¢ | $5.5K | -$2,489 | 10-27 12:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -5,000 | -$4,217 | 98¢ | $-4887 | -$671 | 10-08 04:29 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,802 | -$4,799 | 99¢ | $-4759 | +$40 | 08-21 01:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,662 | -$5,009 | 99¢ | $-4627 | +$381 | 09-11 02:44 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +4,336 | $4,068 | 96¢ | $4.2K | +$106 | 10-28 01:50 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +4,185 | $4,062 | 98¢ | $4.1K | +$59 | 10-09 14:06 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | +20,000 | $3,997 | 18¢ | $3.6K | -$357 | 07-27 16:36 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -3,500 | -$3,385 | 99¢ | $-3463 | -$78 | 07-07 20:57 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | +4,530 | $2,669 | 66¢ | $3.0K | +$343 | 10-27 22:41 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +2,999 | $2,871 | 97¢ | $2.9K | +$31 | 10-19 19:46 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,887 | $2,681 | 94¢ | $2.7K | +$47 | 10-20 14:53 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +2,875 | $2,609 | 94¢ | $2.7K | +$108 | 10-11 17:15 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,704 | $2,576 | 96¢ | $2.6K | +$18 | 10-19 22:44 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +2,400 | $2,208 | 92¢ | $2.2K | +$12 | 10-25 23:23 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,086 | -$2,011 | 99¢ | $-2070 | -$58 | 08-28 18:53 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,000 | -$1,852 | 98¢ | $-1965 | -$113 | 10-08 04:31 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | +20,000 | $2,782 | 9¢ | $1.8K | -$962 | 07-27 19:43 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,824 | $1,673 | 97¢ | $1.8K | +$94 | 10-21 16:10 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | 396 | $83.9K | 42,528 | 43,328 | -800 | open | — | 08-22 15:29 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 113 | $80.9K | 39,217 | 43,879 | -4,662 | open | — | 09-11 02:44 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 118 | $61.9K | 31,480 | 31,480 | +0 | open | — | 07-19 15:15 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 46 | $55.6K | 28,042 | 28,042 | +0 | Yes | +$139 | 04-28 04:21 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 87 | $32.9K | 34,764 | 0 | +34,764 | open | — | 10-19 20:31 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | 77 | $29.6K | 15,355 | 15,355 | +0 | open | — | 10-24 11:58 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 64 | $29.0K | 12,598 | 17,400 | -4,802 | open | — | 08-21 01:24 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 87 | $25.9K | 13,338 | 13,338 | +0 | open | — | 10-13 02:20 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | 56 | $22.6K | 22,856 | 226 | +22,630 | open | — | 10-27 11:45 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 190 | $20.8K | 32,554 | 12,100 | +20,454 | open | — | 10-28 03:10 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 97 | $20.7K | 12,971 | 8,635 | +4,336 | open | — | 10-28 01:50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 220 | $20.6K | 0 | 38,250 | -38,250 | open | — | 07-06 11:16 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 63 | $19.2K | 10,550 | 8,884 | +1,666 | No | +$54 | 03-30 19:26 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 72 | $18.6K | 17,126 | 2,300 | +14,826 | open | — | 10-27 21:39 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | 20 | $18.0K | 9,053 | 9,053 | +0 | No | +$43 | 09-30 12:50 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | 71 | $17.7K | 17,962 | 501 | +17,461 | open | — | 10-20 10:53 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 135 | $17.7K | 33,139 | 13,100 | +20,039 | open | — | 10-27 12:13 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 20 | $15.0K | 11,266 | 3,934 | +7,333 | No | +$75 | 04-01 02:09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 24 | $14.4K | 4,636 | 11,156 | -6,520 | open | — | 10-19 07:27 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | 96 | $14.0K | 6,300 | 7,799 | -1,499 | No | +$46 | 06-14 19:09 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 62 | $13.2K | 12,154 | 1,691 | +10,464 | open | — | 10-26 12:45 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 24 | $11.9K | 7,903 | 4,309 | +3,594 | No | +$205 | 10-07 11:37 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | 26 | $11.6K | 12,452 | 0 | +12,452 | open | — | 10-24 12:06 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 19 | $11.0K | 7,350 | 4,475 | +2,875 | open | — | 10-11 17:15 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774 | 32 | $10.3K | 6,696 | 3,696 | +3,000 | No | +$40 | 03-30 13:06 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | 40 | $9.9K | 3,371 | 6,871 | -3,500 | open | — | 07-07 20:57 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 9 | $9.5K | 9,000 | 500 | +8,500 | No | +$43 | 09-14 00:09 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749 | 52 | $9.3K | 6,949 | 2,555 | +4,394 | No | +$44 | 03-30 13:06 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 23 | $8.5K | 9,400 | 0 | +9,400 | open | — | 10-24 17:11 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 25 | $8.5K | 4,867 | 3,765 | +1,102 | open | — | 10-17 21:05 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||