Cautious-Compliance 0xd3de58…b4fe0e
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$266
Unrealized P&L
-$178
Hit rate
57.7%
Resolved
49
Trades
9,158
lifetime
Volume
$68.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$967
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-05
last 06-09 14:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 19 days
Categories
Other
38% 50% $-156
Crypto
31% 8% $-40
Politics
18% 43% $-62
Sports
12% 64% $-8
Tech
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 218 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes -200 $-40 100¢ $-200 $-160 06-06 02:43
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -97 $-91 93¢ $-90 +$1 06-01 20:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-56 32¢ $-65 $-9 06-01 19:03
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No -150 $-56 36¢ $-55 +$1 06-06 02:44
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No -48 $-48 99¢ $-48 $-0 06-06 02:45
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes -54 $-42 82¢ $-44 $-2 06-06 02:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -43 $-36 86¢ $-38 $-1 05-28 08:54
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes -125 $-34 26¢ $-33 +$1 06-06 02:44
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No -32 $-26 82¢ $-27 $-0 06-06 02:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No -24 $-24 98¢ $-24 $-0 06-06 02:45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No -23 $-22 98¢ $-22 $-0 06-06 02:34
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -22 $-21 99¢ $-22 $-0 06-06 02:35
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -23 $-21 92¢ $-21 $-0 06-06 02:34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No -22 $-20 94¢ $-20 $-1 06-06 02:45
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -32 $-23 63¢ $-20 +$3 06-06 02:45
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No -21 $-18 95¢ $-20 $-1 06-06 02:34
Trump out as President before 2027? No -22 $-20 90¢ $-20 +$0 06-06 02:35
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -31 $-19 60¢ $-19 $-0 06-06 02:45
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No -17 $-15 100¢ $-17 $-2 06-06 02:45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No -17 $-16 99¢ $-16 $-0 06-06 02:45
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No -21 $-14 78¢ $-16 $-3 06-06 02:55
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes -19 $-14 82¢ $-15 $-1 06-06 02:45
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No -18 $-16 85¢ $-15 +$0 06-06 02:35
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No -15 $-15 99¢ $-15 $-0 06-06 02:45
Trump out as President by June 30? No -15 $-15 99¢ $-15 $-0 06-06 02:34
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Yes -15 $-15 98¢ $-15 $-0 06-06 02:35
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No -15 $-14 96¢ $-14 +$0 06-06 02:35
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -16 $-12 90¢ $-14 $-2 06-06 02:55
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -18 $-14 79¢ $-14 $-0 06-06 02:35
Epstein client list released by June 30? No -13 $-12 98¢ $-13 $-0 06-06 02:45