Cautious-Compliance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$266

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.7%

Resolved

Trades

9,158

lifetime

Volume

$68.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 06-09 14:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

38% 50% $-156

Crypto

31% 8% $-40

Politics

18% 43% $-62

Sports

12% 64% $-8

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 127 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	25	$947	662	587	+75	open	—	05-29 02:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	7	$839	433	433	-0	open	—	05-26 04:45
mls skc clb 2026 02 28 clb	4	$747	152	684	-533	open	—	03-01 07:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	29	$604	341	307	+33	open	—	04-22 07:57
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	7	$601	348	254	+94	open	—	05-29 21:08
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	5	$593	297	297	+0	open	—	05-23 05:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	5	$580	296	285	+10	open	—	06-01 11:42
the ring high stakes ryan garcia vs mario barrios	42	$575	335	348	-13	open	—	02-22 07:45
lal mad esp 2026 02 21 mad	32	$521	904	0	+904	open	—	02-21 21:19
cs2 furia mglz 2026 02 20	3	$482	114	439	-325	open	—	02-20 22:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	11	$430	218	218	+0	open	—	05-19 11:43
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	14	$414	422	0	+422	open	—	02-15 22:42
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	48	$390	556	0	+556	open	—	02-22 03:47
nba orl sac 2026 02 19	10	$376	476	0	+476	open	—	02-20 04:44
nba den lac 2026 02 19	21	$358	553	0	+553	open	—	02-20 05:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	14	$350	250	262	-12	open	—	03-01 08:39
lal osa rea 2026 02 21 rea	16	$338	196	227	-31	open	—	02-21 22:38
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	33	$338	243	220	+23	open	—	03-30 04:55
trump out as president by march 31	8	$312	158	158	+0	open	—	03-25 04:20
epl mac new 2026 02 21 mac	31	$264	271	126	+145	open	—	02-21 21:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	37	$263	163	162	+0	open	—	04-28 10:10
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	10	$263	478	67	+412	open	—	05-01 22:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	13	$260	170	171	-1	open	—	04-24 12:38
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	27	$258	203	181	+22	open	—	04-05 03:15
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	35	$253	247	244	+4	open	—	04-08 04:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	4	$250	150	150	+0	open	—	05-26 14:48
mwoh can usa 2026 02 22	53	$249	465	0	+465	open	—	02-22 15:41
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	3	$248	158	91	+67	open	—	05-28 02:48
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	6	$248	105	145	-40	open	—	02-28 14:12
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	18	$247	216	207	+9	open	—	04-06 14:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 14:56:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0xd75c20…
06-08 15:03:36	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0x8eb182…
06-07 04:20:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x4816c5…
06-07 00:06:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x86f2c2…
06-06 22:10:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	179	6¢	$11	0xb5f622…
06-06 04:29:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x956530…
06-06 04:11:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xfcfe84…
06-06 04:02:45	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0xab7f57…
06-06 03:25:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x0f1d17…
06-06 03:05:42	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$0	0x279488…
06-06 02:55:42	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	No	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x886d6c…
06-06 02:55:25	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0x693db3…
06-06 02:55:19	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x7e5968…
06-06 02:48:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x96c8b7…
06-06 02:46:37	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0xff9bce…
06-06 02:46:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xad252e…
06-06 02:46:36	Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x2680f7…
06-06 02:46:33	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0x2e1cc6…
06-06 02:46:33	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x05eeeb…
06-06 02:46:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x5a00b2…
06-06 02:46:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x2d9f03…
06-06 02:46:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0x1a85e6…
06-06 02:46:30	Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x969107…
06-06 02:46:30	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x8340c5…
06-06 02:46:30	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$5	0x551529…
06-06 02:46:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0x04cf9b…
06-06 02:46:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0xe96b4a…
06-06 02:46:28	Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x748113…
06-06 02:46:28	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x53a77b…
06-06 02:46:25	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xeaf8d0…
06-06 02:46:21	Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe46ced…
06-06 02:46:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0xc28a92…
06-06 02:46:21	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	57¢	$4	0x5f518b…
06-06 02:46:21	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x291bfe…
06-06 02:46:21	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x06c59d…
06-06 02:46:19	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0xedd4d0…
06-06 02:46:19	Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xebb856…
06-06 02:46:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xe4159a…
06-06 02:46:19	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xd86e39…
06-06 02:46:16	Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x74c581…
06-06 02:46:16	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	SELL	9	31¢	$3	0x096bb6…
06-06 02:46:15	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0xfd390c…
06-06 02:46:15	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	9	33¢	$3	0x33e52d…
06-06 02:46:10	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x609e4e…
06-06 02:46:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xe854c4…
06-06 02:46:06	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0x92cabb…
06-06 02:46:06	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$8	0x847fe6…
06-06 02:46:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xd0cf59…
06-06 02:46:04	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x75097d…
06-06 02:46:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x35c50c…
06-06 02:46:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x7b8d4a…
06-06 02:45:58	Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xa551c9…
06-06 02:45:58	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x876ac6…
06-06 02:45:58	Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x33e96a…
06-06 02:45:57	Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x606170…
06-06 02:45:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x3e19fa…
06-06 02:45:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x204fde…
06-06 02:45:57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x0c2057…
06-06 02:45:57	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x061ee1…
06-06 02:45:55	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	SELL	11	86¢	$10	0x877f6d…
06-06 02:45:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xf92298…
06-06 02:45:51	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0xe7408f…
06-06 02:45:51	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0xadb920…
06-06 02:45:51	Epstein client list released by June 30?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x5f3ce6…
06-06 02:45:43	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	14	37¢	$5	0xd4ded6…
06-06 02:45:39	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0xf3af59…
06-06 02:45:39	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xe5a57f…
06-06 02:45:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0xb49c2e…
06-06 02:45:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x2f832d…
06-06 02:45:37	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x25f50b…
06-06 02:45:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xc0d148…
06-06 02:45:36	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	71¢	$11	0xc0c16e…
06-06 02:45:33	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x0fac31…
06-06 02:45:31	Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?	No	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xd2ca24…
06-06 02:45:31	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	SELL	15	71¢	$11	0xc20fe6…
06-06 02:45:30	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	16	60¢	$10	0xab79ef…
06-06 02:45:30	Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x9d74e8…
06-06 02:45:30	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0x9d0413…
06-06 02:45:30	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0x4db273…
06-06 02:45:30	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	No	SELL	9	78¢	$7	0x4d6897…
06-06 02:45:28	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0xb951ef…
06-06 02:45:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	52¢	$9	0x924e23…
06-06 02:45:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0x80f5d3…
06-06 02:45:28	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	19	75¢	$14	0x53031d…
06-06 02:45:28	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x286388…
06-06 02:45:27	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	21	29¢	$6	0xd0a895…
06-06 02:45:27	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	SELL	7	66¢	$5	0xb63c78…
06-06 02:45:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x7e6541…
06-06 02:45:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	20¢	$4	0xcb8978…
06-06 02:45:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	SELL	23	24¢	$6	0xedaff1…
06-06 02:45:16	Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0xdeb052…
06-06 02:45:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$24	0x915dfd…
06-06 02:45:16	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0x03424c…
06-06 02:45:15	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	8¢	$2	0xfc6a4a…
06-06 02:45:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0xead093…
06-06 02:45:15	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	27	29¢	$8	0xd71614…
06-06 02:45:15	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xc841e1…
06-06 02:45:15	Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	26¢	$7	0xbbd6fd…
06-06 02:45:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x66f5f9…
06-06 02:45:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	60¢	$19	0x6745a7…