| Asset | Market | Strike | Dir | DTE | Polymarket | Deribit | Residual | Z | Bet | Max % | EV % | Vol 24h | Liquidity | Spot ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? ↗ | $1,000,000 | above | 87d | 49.0¢ | 0.0¢ | +49.0¢ | +3.5 | No @ 51¢ | +96% | +96.3% | $1.2K | $133.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | $75,000 | below | 27d | 64.5¢ | 21.1¢ | +43.4¢ | +3.1 | No @ 36¢ | +182% | +122.4% | $49.8K | $45.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 2d | 31.0¢ | 66.0¢ | -35.0¢ | -2.5 | Yes @ 31¢ | +223% | +112.8% | $2.7K | $15.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 3d | 34.0¢ | 63.7¢ | -29.7¢ | -2.1 | Yes @ 34¢ | +194% | +87.4% | $1.3K | $16.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 4d | 36.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -26.1¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 36¢ | +178% | +72.6% | $494 | $15.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 2d | 67.0¢ | 93.1¢ | -26.1¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 67¢ | +49% | +39.0% | $7.8K | $17.7K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 5d | 37.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -25.1¢ | -1.8 | Yes @ 37¢ | +170% | +68.0% | $4.3K | $16.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 6d | 61.0¢ | 85.2¢ | -24.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 61¢ | +64% | +39.7% | $92 | $12.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 3d | 64.5¢ | 88.7¢ | -24.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 64¢ | +55% | +37.5% | $8.0K | $17.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 5d | 62.0¢ | 85.2¢ | -23.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 62¢ | +61% | +37.5% | $3.8K | $18.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 6d | 39.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -23.1¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 39¢ | +156% | +59.3% | $123 | $12.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 4d | 62.5¢ | 85.2¢ | -22.7¢ | -1.6 | Yes @ 62¢ | +60% | +36.4% | $7.2K | $16.9K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | $70,000 | below | 27d | 29.5¢ | 8.2¢ | +21.3¢ | +1.5 | No @ 70¢ | +42% | +30.2% | $76.4K | $72.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 2d | 8.1¢ | 27.1¢ | -19.0¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 8¢ | +1135% | +235.0% | $3.5K | $16.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 2d | 25.0¢ | 6.0¢ | +19.0¢ | +1.4 | No @ 75¢ | +33% | +25.4% | $6.9K | $12.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 3d | 12.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -18.6¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 12¢ | +733% | +155.2% | $983 | $17.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 4d | 15.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -17.6¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 16¢ | +545% | +113.8% | $1.4K | $17.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | $85,000 | above | 27d | 45.5¢ | 29.1¢ | +16.4¢ | +1.2 | No @ 55¢ | +83% | +30.1% | $80.1K | $52.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 2d | 22.5¢ | 38.8¢ | -16.3¢ | -1.2 | Yes @ 22¢ | +344% | +72.5% | $583 | $7.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 5d | 17.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -15.6¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 18¢ | +471% | +89.4% | $2.1K | $17.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 6d | 80.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -15.4¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 80¢ | +25% | +19.3% | $531 | $14.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 3d | 24.0¢ | 8.7¢ | +15.3¢ | +1.1 | No @ 76¢ | +32% | +20.2% | $308 | $8.9K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 4d | 81.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -14.4¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 81¢ | +23% | +17.8% | $54.8K | $20.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 5d | 82.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -13.4¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 82¢ | +22% | +16.3% | $1.8K | $18.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 6d | 20.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -12.6¢ | -0.9 | Yes @ 20¢ | +388% | +61.7% | $1.5K | $17.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 6? ↗ | $82,000–$84,000 | between | 2d | 7.0¢ | 19.1¢ | -12.1¢ | -0.9 | Yes @ 7¢ | +1329% | +173.1% | $1.7K | $6.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 4d | 22.0¢ | 10.2¢ | +11.8¢ | +0.9 | No @ 78¢ | +28% | +15.2% | $692 | $11.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 3d | 22.0¢ | 33.1¢ | -11.1¢ | -0.8 | Yes @ 22¢ | +355% | +50.4% | $249 | $6.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 7? ↗ | $82,000–$84,000 | between | 3d | 8.9¢ | 19.7¢ | -10.8¢ | -0.8 | Yes @ 9¢ | +1024% | +121.7% | $638 | $10.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 6d | 18.5¢ | 29.0¢ | -10.5¢ | -0.8 | Yes @ 18¢ | +441% | +56.8% | $596 | $12.7K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | $65,000 | below | 27d | 13.5¢ | 3.1¢ | +10.4¢ | +0.8 | No @ 86¢ | +16% | +12.1% | $115.1K | $72.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 3d | 87.5¢ | 97.4¢ | -9.9¢ | -0.7 | Yes @ 88¢ | +14% | +11.3% | $18.0K | $19.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 8? ↗ | $74,000–$76,000 | between | 4d | 12.5¢ | 3.2¢ | +9.3¢ | +0.7 | No @ 88¢ | +14% | +10.7% | $191 | $7.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 8? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 4d | 20.0¢ | 29.0¢ | -9.0¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +45.0% | $90 | $6.7K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | $90,000 | above | 27d | 20.5¢ | 11.6¢ | +8.9¢ | +0.6 | No @ 80¢ | +26% | +11.2% | $164.3K | $53.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 6? ↗ | $78,000–$80,000 | between | 2d | 36.0¢ | 27.1¢ | +8.9¢ | +0.6 | No @ 64¢ | +56% | +13.8% | $463 | $9.9K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 6d | 19.0¢ | 10.2¢ | +8.8¢ | +0.6 | No @ 81¢ | +23% | +10.9% | $599 | $9.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? ↗ | $82,000–$84,000 | between | 4d | 11.0¢ | 19.5¢ | -8.5¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 11¢ | +809% | +76.9% | $44 | $7.4K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 7? ↗ | $74,000–$76,000 | between | 3d | 10.3¢ | 2.0¢ | +8.3¢ | +0.6 | No @ 90¢ | +11% | +9.3% | $313 | $6.4K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 2d | 91.1¢ | 99.1¢ | -7.9¢ | -0.6 | Yes @ 91¢ | +10% | +8.7% | $6.7K | $20.4K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 10? ↗ | $74,000–$76,000 | between | 6d | 11.0¢ | 3.2¢ | +7.8¢ | +0.6 | No @ 89¢ | +12% | +8.8% | $61 | $7.4K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? ↗ | $74,000 | above | 6d | 91.0¢ | 98.6¢ | -7.6¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 91¢ | +10% | +8.3% | $405 | $12.7K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? ↗ | $84,000 | above | 4d | 6.1¢ | 13.7¢ | -7.5¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 6¢ | +1526% | +122.4% | $2.4K | $18.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? ↗ | $82,000–$84,000 | between | 6d | 12.0¢ | 19.5¢ | -7.5¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 12¢ | +733% | +62.2% | $138 | $8.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? ↗ | $84,000 | above | 5d | 6.3¢ | 13.7¢ | -7.3¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 6¢ | +1475% | +115.4% | $1.8K | $19.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? ↗ | $84,000 | above | 3d | 3.8¢ | 10.9¢ | -7.1¢ | -0.5 | Yes @ 4¢ | +2532% | +186.5% | $1.2K | $19.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 6? ↗ | $74,000–$76,000 | between | 2d | 7.8¢ | 0.8¢ | +7.0¢ | +0.5 | No @ 92¢ | +8% | +7.6% | $88 | $8.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? ↗ | $84,000 | above | 2d | 2.5¢ | 8.0¢ | -5.5¢ | -0.4 | Yes @ 3¢ | +3900% | +220.6% | $1.5K | $21.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 7? ↗ | $78,000–$80,000 | between | 3d | 30.5¢ | 25.0¢ | +5.5¢ | +0.4 | No @ 70¢ | +44% | +7.9% | $111 | $6.6K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? ↗ | $74,000 | above | 5d | 93.3¢ | 98.6¢ | -5.3¢ | -0.4 | Yes @ 93¢ | +7% | +5.7% | $10.7K | $19.3K | $80,946 |
Polymarket column is bid-derived implied prob:
(yes_bid + (1 - no_bid)) / 2.
Deribit column is risk-neutral P(direction|asset, strike, expiry)
extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger from an SVI smile fit on the live option chain.
Residual = Polymarket − Deribit.
Z uses a 14-day rolling residual std per signal_id (or a 7pp prior
while history is thin).
Refreshes every 5 min. Raw JSON at
/api/predict/signals.