| Asset | Market | Strike | Dir | DTE | Polymarket | Deribit | Residual | Z | Bet | Max % | EV % | Vol 24h | Liquidity | Spot ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? ↗ | $2,200 | below | 27d | 66.5¢ | 26.2¢ | +40.3¢ | +3.9 | No @ 34¢ | +199% | +120.2% | $9.6K | $17.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 27d | 85.0¢ | 48.8¢ | +36.2¢ | +3.5 | No @ 15¢ | +567% | +241.4% | $31.1K | $19.6K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? ↗ | $1,000,000 | above | 87d | 49.0¢ | 0.0¢ | +49.0¢ | +3.5 | No @ 51¢ | +96% | +96.3% | $1.2K | $133.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | $75,000 | below | 27d | 64.5¢ | 21.1¢ | +43.4¢ | +3.1 | No @ 36¢ | +182% | +122.4% | $49.8K | $45.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 2d | 31.0¢ | 66.0¢ | -35.0¢ | -2.5 | Yes @ 31¢ | +223% | +112.8% | $2.7K | $15.8K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 2d | 68.0¢ | 90.9¢ | -22.9¢ | -2.2 | Yes @ 68¢ | +47% | +33.6% | $747 | $13.4K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 3d | 34.0¢ | 63.7¢ | -29.7¢ | -2.1 | Yes @ 34¢ | +194% | +87.4% | $1.3K | $16.5K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 2d | 23.0¢ | 44.6¢ | -21.6¢ | -2.1 | Yes @ 23¢ | +335% | +93.9% | $1.8K | $14.7K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 3d | 65.0¢ | 85.6¢ | -20.6¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 65¢ | +54% | +31.6% | $188 | $11.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 6d | 61.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -20.6¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 61¢ | +64% | +33.7% | $192 | $10.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? ↗ | $2,000 | below | 27d | 30.5¢ | 10.3¢ | +20.2¢ | +2.0 | No @ 70¢ | +44% | +29.0% | $4.1K | $33.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 3d | 27.0¢ | 47.0¢ | -20.0¢ | -2.0 | Yes @ 27¢ | +270% | +74.0% | $34 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 9? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 5d | 62.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -19.6¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 62¢ | +61% | +31.5% | $181 | $9.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 6? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 2d | 28.0¢ | 8.5¢ | +19.5¢ | +1.9 | No @ 72¢ | +39% | +27.1% | — | $4.2K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 4d | 36.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -26.1¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 36¢ | +178% | +72.6% | $494 | $15.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 2d | 67.0¢ | 93.1¢ | -26.1¢ | -1.9 | Yes @ 67¢ | +49% | +39.0% | $7.8K | $17.7K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,300 | above | 4d | 63.0¢ | 81.6¢ | -18.6¢ | -1.8 | Yes @ 63¢ | +59% | +29.5% | $84 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 5d | 37.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -25.1¢ | -1.8 | Yes @ 37¢ | +170% | +68.0% | $4.3K | $16.0K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 6d | 61.0¢ | 85.2¢ | -24.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 61¢ | +64% | +39.7% | $92 | $12.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 3d | 64.5¢ | 88.7¢ | -24.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 64¢ | +55% | +37.5% | $8.0K | $17.5K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 8? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 4d | 30.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -17.8¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 30¢ | +233% | +59.5% | $8 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? ↗ | $2,600 | above | 27d | 42.5¢ | 25.0¢ | +17.5¢ | +1.7 | No @ 57¢ | +74% | +30.4% | $27.4K | $29.6K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 5d | 62.0¢ | 85.2¢ | -23.2¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 62¢ | +61% | +37.5% | $3.8K | $18.1K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? ↗ | $80,000 | above | 6d | 39.0¢ | 62.1¢ | -23.1¢ | -1.7 | Yes @ 39¢ | +156% | +59.3% | $123 | $12.0K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 5d | 31.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -16.8¢ | -1.6 | Yes @ 31¢ | +223% | +54.3% | $18 | $9.0K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? ↗ | $78,000 | above | 4d | 62.5¢ | 85.2¢ | -22.7¢ | -1.6 | Yes @ 62¢ | +60% | +36.4% | $7.2K | $16.9K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 7? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 3d | 28.0¢ | 12.2¢ | +15.8¢ | +1.5 | No @ 72¢ | +39% | +22.0% | — | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | $70,000 | below | 27d | 29.5¢ | 8.2¢ | +21.3¢ | +1.5 | No @ 70¢ | +42% | +30.2% | $76.4K | $72.2K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400 | above | 6d | 33.0¢ | 47.8¢ | -14.8¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 33¢ | +203% | +45.0% | $49 | $10.3K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 6? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 2d | 19.0¢ | 33.8¢ | -14.8¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 19¢ | +426% | +77.7% | — | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 10? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 6d | 81.5¢ | 95.8¢ | -14.3¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 82¢ | +23% | +17.6% | $240 | $9.9K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 2d | 8.1¢ | 27.1¢ | -19.0¢ | -1.4 | Yes @ 8¢ | +1135% | +235.0% | $3.5K | $16.8K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 2d | 25.0¢ | 6.0¢ | +19.0¢ | +1.4 | No @ 75¢ | +33% | +25.4% | $6.9K | $12.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 3d | 12.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -18.6¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 12¢ | +733% | +155.2% | $983 | $17.0K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 7? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 3d | 20.0¢ | 33.1¢ | -13.1¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +65.5% | $24 | $4.1K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 4d | 15.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -17.6¢ | -1.3 | Yes @ 16¢ | +545% | +113.8% | $1.4K | $17.2K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | $85,000 | above | 27d | 45.5¢ | 29.1¢ | +16.4¢ | +1.2 | No @ 55¢ | +83% | +30.1% | $80.1K | $52.1K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 6d | 18.5¢ | 30.6¢ | -12.1¢ | -1.2 | Yes @ 18¢ | +441% | +65.2% | — | $4.9K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6? ↗ | $80,000–$82,000 | between | 2d | 22.5¢ | 38.8¢ | -16.3¢ | -1.2 | Yes @ 22¢ | +344% | +72.5% | $583 | $7.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 5d | 17.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -15.6¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 18¢ | +471% | +89.4% | $2.1K | $17.5K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 6d | 80.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -15.4¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 80¢ | +25% | +19.3% | $531 | $14.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7? ↗ | $76,000–$78,000 | between | 3d | 24.0¢ | 8.7¢ | +15.3¢ | +1.1 | No @ 76¢ | +32% | +20.2% | $308 | $8.9K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 9? ↗ | $2,200 | above | 5d | 85.0¢ | 95.8¢ | -10.8¢ | -1.1 | Yes @ 85¢ | +18% | +12.7% | $199 | $9.1K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 8? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 4d | 25.0¢ | 14.3¢ | +10.7¢ | +1.0 | No @ 75¢ | +33% | +14.3% | $708 | $8.8K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 4d | 81.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -14.4¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 81¢ | +23% | +17.8% | $54.8K | $20.3K | $80,946 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 8? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 4d | 20.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -10.6¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +52.8% | $24 | $4.0K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 9? ↗ | $2,400–$2,500 | between | 5d | 20.0¢ | 30.6¢ | -10.6¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 20¢ | +400% | +52.8% | $24 | $4.5K | $2,399 |
| ETH | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 9? ↗ | $2,200–$2,300 | between | 5d | 24.5¢ | 14.3¢ | +10.2¢ | +1.0 | No @ 76¢ | +32% | +13.6% | $51 | $4.3K | $2,399 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? ↗ | $76,000 | above | 5d | 82.0¢ | 95.4¢ | -13.4¢ | -1.0 | Yes @ 82¢ | +22% | +16.3% | $1.8K | $18.3K | $80,946 |
| BTC | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? ↗ | $82,000 | above | 6d | 20.5¢ | 33.1¢ | -12.6¢ | -0.9 | Yes @ 20¢ | +388% | +61.7% | $1.5K | $17.6K | $80,946 |
Polymarket column is bid-derived implied prob:
(yes_bid + (1 - no_bid)) / 2.
Deribit column is risk-neutral P(direction|asset, strike, expiry)
extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger from an SVI smile fit on the live option chain.
Residual = Polymarket − Deribit.
Z uses a 14-day rolling residual std per signal_id (or a 7pp prior
while history is thin).
Refreshes every 5 min. Raw JSON at
/api/predict/signals.