Realized P&L
-$161
Unrealized P&L
-$107
Hit rate
50.9%
Resolved
107
Trades
544
lifetime
Volume
$2.03K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$125
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-11
last 11-01 19:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 48 days
Categories
Other
49% 20% -$65
Politics
20% 8% -$97
Crypto
14% 40% -$2
Sports
10% 29% +$4
Tech
7% 25% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +50 $7 21¢ $11 +$4 06-06 12:49
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +54 $10 18¢ $10 $0 06-01 13:14
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +83 $15 10¢ $8 -$7 05-15 05:33
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes +30 $5 23¢ $7 +$2 05-12 20:13
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? Yes +29 $5 24¢ $7 +$2 05-12 17:05
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +52 $8 12¢ $6 -$2 06-09 14:37
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +51 $10 12¢ $6 -$4 05-12 19:12
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +43 $5 12¢ $5 +$0 05-11 18:58
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Yes +47 $5 11¢ $5 +$0 05-19 18:22
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Yes +74 $10 5¢ $4 -$7 05-19 18:23
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +30 $5 12¢ $3 -$1 05-11 19:39
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No +51 $10 7¢ $3 -$6 06-07 09:14
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes +74 $10 4¢ $3 -$7 05-12 19:09
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +38 $5 8¢ $3 -$2 05-11 20:05
Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026? Yes +27 $5 11¢ $3 -$2 05-11 19:49
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +54 $9 6¢ $3 -$6 06-15 18:43
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes +45 $8 6¢ $3 -$5 05-12 19:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +45 $8 6¢ $3 -$5 06-12 14:52
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +53 $10 6¢ $3 -$7 05-15 05:26
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +51 $10 6¢ $3 -$7 05-12 19:23
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +45 $8 6¢ $3 -$5 06-09 14:38
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +38 $5 7¢ $3 -$3 05-15 05:32
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes +67 $10 4¢ $3 -$7 05-12 20:24
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +57 $8 4¢ $3 -$6 06-12 09:39
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes +47 $6 6¢ $3 -$3 06-28 21:13
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +51 $8 5¢ $3 -$6 06-09 14:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +56 $10 4¢ $3 -$8 05-12 19:10
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +27 $5 9¢ $2 -$2 05-11 19:43
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +37 $5 6¢ $2 -$3 06-06 12:49
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +28 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 05-11 19:18