Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on May 16?
open
Total volume
$321
$17 in 24h
Trades
47
Unique wallets
36
Liquidity
$426
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-05-16
First seen
2026-05-14
last 05-16 14:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $28 | $28 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $2 | $47 | $45 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 30 | $28 | $156 | $128 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $1 | $55 | $53 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $6 | $18 | $13 |
| Median | 10 | $4 | $51 | $47 |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $101 | $101 |
| unranked | 5 | $16 | $6 | +$10 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouncy-Return 0xfe57…4406 | No | +108 | $101 | $101 | 1 | 05-15 10:12 |
| Defensive-Ocelot 0x17a8…3509 | Yes | +87 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-16 07:54 |
| Puzzling-Pentagon 0xed5c…8cf8 | Yes | +66 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-15 14:56 |
| Boiling-Want 0x4952…d9b0 | Yes | +50 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-15 18:01 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +30 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 05-15 21:45 |
| Weekly-Mutton 0xc135…a01a | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 05-16 14:02 |
| Heavenly-Monocle 0x5616…61c1 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-15 16:12 |
| Thrifty-Original 0xc34f…7d2e | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 05-16 02:14 |
| Used-Spleen 0xc279…7023 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-15 16:26 |
| Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 4 | 05-16 02:34 |
| Sure-Footed-Cherry 0xa98a…a5a8 | No | +17 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-14 10:15 |
| Easy-Going-Directory 0xcac0…a0b8 | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-16 05:54 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 05-16 02:29 |
| Organic-Processor 0x54f9…cef2 | Yes | +12 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-15 22:18 |
| Likable-Reform 0xfa0f…835e | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-15 11:09 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-16 03:10 |
| Whirlwind-Milk 0xe022…12c5 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-16 10:31 |
| Honest-Bat 0x5dda…7e9c | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-15 17:57 |
| Beloved-Millennium 0xa8c2…e6c5 | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-16 08:56 |
| Enchanting-Palm 0xeb1d…59b0 | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x2242…89bc | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-15 16:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-16 14:02:21 | Weekly-Mutton 0xc135…a01a | Yes | BUY | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xafabe1… |
| 05-16 14:02:11 | Weekly-Mutton 0xc135…a01a | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x092622… |
| 05-16 13:25:03 | Revolving-Snowboarding 0xd802…d766 | No | SELL | 33 | 100¢ | $33 | 0xd4917e… |
| 05-16 11:45:51 | (anonymous) 0x33c7…7ef1 | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x28d6cf… |
| 05-16 11:16:40 | (anonymous) 0xf33c…488c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xd71dba… |
| 05-16 11:01:00 | Awesome-Lottery 0x85c0…e01d | Yes | SELL | 71 | 10¢ | $7 | 0x7de16f… |
| 05-16 10:31:36 | Whirlwind-Milk 0xe022…12c5 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x5da528… |
| 05-16 09:26:33 | Buzzing-Diffuse 0x3da3…0fdc | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xf36832… |
| 05-16 08:56:36 | Beloved-Millennium 0xa8c2…e6c5 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x0fe6b5… |
| 05-16 07:54:46 | (anonymous) 0x33c7…7ef1 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $4 | 0xff1352… |
| 05-16 07:54:41 | Defensive-Ocelot 0x17a8…3509 | Yes | BUY | 87 | 12¢ | $10 | 0x496c02… |
| 05-16 05:54:55 | Easy-Going-Directory 0xcac0…a0b8 | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x9fcc12… |
| 05-16 05:36:07 | Severe-Intentionality 0xc4f9…8d24 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x692a7d… |
| 05-16 03:10:57 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xf30706… |
| 05-16 02:34:15 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 7 | 88¢ | $6 | 0x2266f7… |
| 05-16 02:29:20 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 6 | 85¢ | $5 | 0x7de271… |
| 05-16 02:14:13 | Thrifty-Original 0xc34f…7d2e | No | BUY | 10 | 86¢ | $9 | 0x52e9b6… |
| 05-16 02:10:55 | Thrifty-Original 0xc34f…7d2e | No | BUY | 10 | 86¢ | $9 | 0x9693c3… |
| 05-15 22:18:38 | Organic-Processor 0x54f9…cef2 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x15aa18… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Broken-Consensus 0xc90b…7190 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xc039fb… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Blond-Nick 0xc0d8…5430 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x6953a2… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Grave-Dissemination 0xe43f…a889 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xe6dafa… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Troubled-Cloth 0x9009…1621 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xacadc4… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 30 | 90¢ | $27 | 0x5e3948… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f | Yes | SELL | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x24aeb3… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Trained-Beanie 0xcb32…79aa | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x31d740… |
| 05-15 21:45:39 | Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xd996ee… |
| 05-15 20:38:18 | Dimpled-Technologist 0x16d4…a868 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x23cf34… |
| 05-15 18:22:39 | Buzzing-Diffuse 0x3da3…0fdc | Yes | SELL | 87 | 11¢ | $9 | 0x7b90a0… |
| 05-15 18:01:57 | Boiling-Want 0x4952…d9b0 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xc87cab… |
| 05-15 17:57:15 | Honest-Bat 0x5dda…7e9c | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0xcf8696… |
| 05-15 16:26:32 | Used-Spleen 0xc279…7023 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x5712d8… |
| 05-15 16:12:18 | (anonymous) 0x2242…89bc | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xac67c2… |
| 05-15 16:12:17 | Heavenly-Monocle 0x5616…61c1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x97b157… |
| 05-15 14:56:23 | Puzzling-Pentagon 0xed5c…8cf8 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xbdef73… |
| 05-15 11:09:37 | Likable-Reform 0xfa0f…835e | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xb93387… |
| 05-15 11:06:05 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x137484… |
| 05-15 10:12:01 | Bouncy-Return 0xfe57…4406 | No | BUY | 108 | 93¢ | $101 | 0x844be8… |
| 05-15 09:44:27 | Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x5379ad… |
| 05-15 09:44:27 | Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f | Yes | SELL | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x8c90e2… |
| 05-14 23:32:53 | (anonymous) 0x155a…f083 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcadce3… |
| 05-14 23:17:46 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xe2a14c… |
| 05-14 15:28:57 | Enchanting-Palm 0xeb1d…59b0 | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x9a66cb… |
| 05-14 13:25:36 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x45cdc0… |
| 05-14 12:57:33 | Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x8d4f51… |
| 05-14 11:15:31 | Used-Spleen 0xc279…7023 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x95441f… |
| 05-14 10:15:09 | Sure-Footed-Cherry 0xa98a…a5a8 | No | BUY | 17 | 91¢ | $15 | 0x994da0… |