Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$2,617
Trades
104
Unique wallets
44
Liquidity
$140
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-23 13:57
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $0 | $420 | $420 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $11 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $9 | $548 | $539 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $7 | $142 | $135 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $1 | $18 | $17 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $4 | $29 | $26 |
| Median | 6 | $6 | $188 | $181 |
| Below median | 5 | $0 | $7 | $7 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $3 | $174 | $171 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $53 | $53 |
| unranked | 17 | $12 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x0b7a…86cf | No | +1,018 | $1,010 | $1,010 | 1 | 07-13 16:26 |
| Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | +718 | $4 | $8 | 25 | 07-23 13:49 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +369 | $3 | $3 | 4 | 07-23 13:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +158 | $158 | $158 | 2 | 07-23 03:28 |
| Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | +150 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Gummy-Theater 0x562b…dc09 | No | +138 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Everlasting-Emerald 0x84d2…98c0 | No | +100 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 07-23 13:49 |
| Tidy-Horde-Nit 0xdba4…6977 | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 07:19 |
| Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | +100 | $-1 | $2 | 6 | 07-23 13:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xc3da…1dd8 | Yes | +95 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-19 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | +81 | $76 | $76 | 2 | 07-19 12:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | +67 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-14 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | +52 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 07-14 13:20 |
| Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +37 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 07-19 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x788d…ae4f | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-16 11:03 |
| Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | +30 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:52 |
| Haunting-Pinkie 0x8adf…48cd | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-22 00:25 |
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 03:02 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 03:28 |
| Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 07-09 06:23 |
| Striped-Crazy 0x2c79…e0aa | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-08 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | +15 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-28 12:44 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +15 | $13 | $33 | 4 | 07-14 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +10 | $-0 | $3 | 4 | 07-13 16:26 |
| Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-08 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-19 12:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 05:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x978b…2add | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-14 21:25 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $1 | 2 | 06-10 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-15 21:29 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $3 | 3 | 07-21 03:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 13:57:36 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7d6330… |
| 07-23 13:57:36 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7d6330… |
| 07-23 13:57:36 | (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7d6330… |
| 07-23 13:57:36 | Gummy-Theater 0x562b…dc09 | No | BUY | 138 | 100¢ | $138 | 0x7d6330… |
| 07-23 13:57:36 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 68 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7d6330… |
| 07-23 13:52:52 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf1e0a5… |
| 07-23 13:52:52 | (anonymous) 0x87cb…643a | Yes | SELL | 143 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf1e0a5… |
| 07-23 13:52:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 31 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf1e0a5… |
| 07-23 13:52:52 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 82 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf1e0a5… |
| 07-23 13:49:30 | Everlasting-Emerald 0x84d2…98c0 | No | BUY | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0xbc8070… |
| 07-23 13:49:30 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbc8070… |
| 07-23 13:49:30 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbc8070… |
| 07-23 07:19:00 | Tidy-Horde-Nit 0xdba4…6977 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x9128aa… |
| 07-23 07:19:00 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x9128aa… |
| 07-23 03:28:21 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 38 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x836978… |
| 07-23 03:28:21 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0x836978… |
| 07-23 03:28:15 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 120 | 100¢ | $120 | 0xf1e475… |
| 07-23 03:28:15 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf1e475… |
| 07-23 03:28:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf1e475… |
| 07-22 00:25:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0xecd594… |
| 07-22 00:25:54 | Haunting-Pinkie 0x8adf…48cd | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0xecd594… |
| 07-21 03:16:55 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdfce61… |
| 07-21 03:16:55 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xdfce61… |
| 07-19 12:14:25 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x235570… |
| 07-19 12:14:25 | (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | SELL | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x235570… |
| 07-19 12:14:25 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | SELL | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x235570… |
| 07-19 12:14:25 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | BUY | 14 | 93¢ | $13 | 0x235570… |
| 07-19 12:14:25 | (anonymous) 0x7e59…7b8b | No | BUY | 7 | 92¢ | $6 | 0x235570… |
| 07-19 08:59:18 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x9e668e… |
| 07-19 08:59:18 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9e668e… |
| 07-19 08:59:18 | (anonymous) 0xc3da…1dd8 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x9e668e… |
| 07-19 08:59:18 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9e668e… |
| 07-19 08:59:18 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 16 | 98¢ | $16 | 0x9e668e… |
| 07-18 06:03:34 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | SELL | 32 | 98¢ | $32 | 0xaef3ab… |
| 07-18 06:03:34 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xaef3ab… |
| 07-18 06:03:34 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xaef3ab… |
| 07-18 06:03:34 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xaef3ab… |
| 07-18 06:03:12 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb17096… |
| 07-18 06:03:12 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xb17096… |
| 07-18 06:03:04 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb149e2… |
| 07-18 06:03:04 | (anonymous) 0x87cb…643a | Yes | BUY | 102 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xb149e2… |
| 07-18 06:03:04 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | BUY | 40 | 99¢ | $39 | 0xb149e2… |
| 07-18 06:03:04 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb149e2… |
| 07-16 11:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x788d…ae4f | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0xd0eeb2… |
| 07-16 11:03:01 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xd0eeb2… |
| 07-15 21:29:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x45e52c… |
| 07-15 21:29:55 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x45e52c… |
| 07-15 21:29:55 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 2 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x45e52c… |
| 07-15 21:29:55 | (anonymous) 0x87cb…643a | Yes | BUY | 41 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x45e52c… |
| 07-14 21:25:43 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x798779… |
| 07-14 21:25:43 | (anonymous) 0x978b…2add | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x798779… |
| 07-14 13:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xdd8098… |
| 07-14 13:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | BUY | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0x7341fa… |
| 07-14 13:20:01 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0xdd8098… |
| 07-14 13:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x7341fa… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | SELL | 80 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | Numb-Innovation 0x8687…d07b | No | SELL | 321 | 98¢ | $314 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 14 | 99¢ | $13 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | BUY | 67 | 94¢ | $63 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-14 10:49:52 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x5e4c4e… |
| 07-13 23:31:01 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x12695f… |
| 07-13 23:31:01 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x12695f… |
| 07-13 22:39:26 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | BUY | 80 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0f4d63… |
| 07-13 22:39:26 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | BUY | 241 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x0f4d63… |
| 07-13 22:39:26 | Numb-Innovation 0x8687…d07b | No | BUY | 321 | 100¢ | $320 | 0x0f4d63… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 292 | 1¢ | $3 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x0b7a…86cf | No | BUY | 1,018 | 99¢ | $1,010 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | BUY | 607 | 1¢ | $5 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-13 16:26:22 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 55 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x04384a… |
| 07-09 06:23:17 | Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | No | BUY | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x623de3… |
| 07-09 06:23:17 | (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | BUY | 19 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x623de3… |
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Striped-Crazy 0x2c79…e0aa | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 06-28 12:44:28 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6d82be… |
| 06-28 12:44:28 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6d82be… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-24 23:33:59 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x459d2b… |
| 06-24 23:33:59 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x459d2b… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-17 21:26:58 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xbb13d2… |
| 06-17 21:26:58 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xbb13d2… |
| 06-17 21:26:46 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xe05ecb… |
| 06-17 21:26:46 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe05ecb… |
| 06-16 01:13:27 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x53929b… |
| 06-16 01:13:27 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x53929b… |
| 06-10 13:18:10 | Quaint-Straw 0x8972…2283 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x907034… |
| 06-10 13:18:10 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x907034… |