Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$51
Trades
29
Unique wallets
18
Liquidity
$140
Latest YES mid
7¢
Latest NO mid
93¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-08 14:53
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | — | $9 | $9 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $2 | $15 | $13 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $2 | $6 | $4 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| Median | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $9 | $9 |
| unranked | 5 | $2 | $20 | $18 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-26 03:02 |
| Striped-Crazy 0x2c79…e0aa | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-08 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | +15 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-28 12:44 |
| Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-08 14:53 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +8 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-24 14:41 |
| Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 05:23 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $1 | 2 | 06-10 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +3 | $0 | $1 | 4 | 06-24 23:33 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 01:13 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Striped-Crazy 0x2c79…e0aa | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 07-08 14:53:10 | Haunting-Rain 0x8ad8…8125 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5d2aa4… |
| 06-28 12:44:28 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | SELL | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6d82be… |
| 06-28 12:44:28 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6d82be… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-26 03:02:13 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3c4a78… |
| 06-24 23:33:59 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x459d2b… |
| 06-24 23:33:59 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x459d2b… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 21:58:40 | Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x687306… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-24 14:41:08 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 12 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x944ca6… |
| 06-17 21:26:58 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xbb13d2… |
| 06-17 21:26:58 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xbb13d2… |
| 06-17 21:26:46 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe05ecb… |
| 06-17 21:26:46 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xe05ecb… |
| 06-16 01:13:27 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x53929b… |
| 06-16 01:13:27 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x53929b… |
| 06-10 13:18:10 | Quaint-Straw 0x8972…2283 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x907034… |
| 06-10 13:18:10 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x907034… |
| 06-04 05:23:52 | Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0xeb5500… |
| 06-04 05:23:52 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xeb5500… |
| 05-29 17:20:41 | Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xd8a7e3… |
| 05-29 17:20:41 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd8a7e3… |