Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
open
Total volume
$1,876
Trades
58
Unique wallets
28
Liquidity
$11,316
Latest YES mid
27¢
Latest NO mid
73¢
End date
2027-04-17
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-12 20:18
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-4.9¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $12
vs crowd: 5% YES on $821)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $1 | $103 | $102 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 14 | $32 | $235 | $202 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | $3 | $443 | $440 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $4 | — | +$4 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $12 | $12 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $6 | $20 | $15 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $95 | $95 |
| Median | 1 | — | $2 | $2 |
| Below median | 4 | — | $301 | $301 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $4 | $141 | $136 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $11 | $61 | $50 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $13 | $83 | $70 |
| unranked | 5 | $7 | $66 | $59 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | No | +150 | $141 | $141 | 2 | 06-11 16:10 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-30 15:21 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +69 | $64 | $64 | 1 | 06-11 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c66…31e3 | No | +60 | $57 | $132 | 2 | 06-09 07:50 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | +50 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-30 15:21 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 05-30 15:21 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +40 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-12 20:18 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +25 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 22:12 |
| Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | Yes | +25 | $1 | $8 | 3 | 06-11 16:10 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 09:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xb886…3024 | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-12 20:18 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-11 16:10 |
| Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-28 16:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xec0a…37fc | Yes | +18 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 15:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 20:18:09 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 73 | 18¢ | $13 | 0xb9cd88… |
| 06-12 20:18:09 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xb9cd88… |
| 06-12 20:18:09 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xb9cd88… |
| 06-12 20:18:09 | (anonymous) 0xb886…3024 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xb9cd88… |
| 06-12 20:18:09 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | SELL | 13 | 83¢ | $11 | 0xb9cd88… |
| 06-11 22:12:54 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 25 | 80¢ | $20 | 0x5e0bc3… |
| 06-11 22:12:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 80¢ | $20 | 0x5e0bc3… |
| 06-11 16:10:40 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x493f91… |
| 06-11 16:10:40 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x493f91… |
| 06-11 16:10:39 | Darling-Graduate 0x2251…25a0 | No | BUY | 87 | 94¢ | $82 | 0xbb6b5a… |
| 06-11 16:10:39 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | SELL | 13 | 93¢ | $12 | 0xda6b17… |
| 06-11 16:10:39 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 13 | 93¢ | $12 | 0xda6b17… |
| 06-11 16:10:39 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | SELL | 87 | 94¢ | $82 | 0xbb6b5a… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 25 | 94¢ | $24 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | No | BUY | 80 | 94¢ | $75 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 69 | 93¢ | $64 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Darling-Graduate 0x2251…25a0 | No | SELL | 495 | 94¢ | $464 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 16:10:37 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x710f3e… |
| 06-11 15:46:58 | (anonymous) 0xec0a…37fc | Yes | BUY | 18 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x64a5e8… |
| 06-11 15:46:58 | Darling-Graduate 0x2251…25a0 | No | BUY | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x64a5e8… |
| 06-09 07:50:42 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x63e23f… |
| 06-09 07:50:42 | (anonymous) 0x5c66…31e3 | No | SELL | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0x63e23f… |
| 06-09 07:49:30 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x3329e0… |
| 06-09 07:49:30 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3329e0… |
| 06-09 07:49:30 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x3329e0… |
| 06-09 07:49:30 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3329e0… |
| 06-09 07:49:30 | (anonymous) 0x5c66…31e3 | No | BUY | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0x3329e0… |
| 06-08 20:43:01 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 208 | 6¢ | $11 | 0xfffaa4… |
| 06-08 20:43:01 | Darling-Graduate 0x2251…25a0 | No | BUY | 95 | 94¢ | $90 | 0xfffaa4… |
| 06-08 20:43:01 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 303 | 94¢ | $287 | 0xfffaa4… |
| 06-03 06:01:16 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x88a590… |
| 06-03 06:01:16 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x88a590… |
| 06-03 06:00:12 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x1e9d7f… |
| 06-03 06:00:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x1e9d7f… |
| 05-31 09:51:47 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x270126… |
| 05-31 09:51:47 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x270126… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Pastel-Browser 0x5a0d…c6be | No | SELL | 28 | 93¢ | $26 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 210 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Fortunate-Scratch 0x5184…1363 | Yes | SELL | 474 | 6¢ | $27 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Determined-Mug 0xff4b…d019 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x79ee7e… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3d1e9b… |
| 05-30 15:21:25 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x79ee7e… |
| 05-28 16:43:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 12 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xe574e8… |
| 05-28 16:43:53 | Pastel-Browser 0x5a0d…c6be | No | SELL | 32 | 92¢ | $30 | 0xe574e8… |
| 05-28 16:43:53 | Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0xe574e8… |
| 05-28 12:50:35 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | SELL | 18 | 92¢ | $16 | 0xf3d082… |
| 05-28 12:50:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 18 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xf3d082… |