Will Will Sawin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$146
Trades
31
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$55
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
85¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-06-01
last 06-17 04:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $4 | $32 | $28 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $12 | $35 | $24 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $0 | $28 | $28 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $6 | $15 | $8 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $3 | $37 | $34 |
| Median | 1 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Below median | 3 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $35 | $35 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $32 | $32 |
| unranked | 3 | $2 | $5 | $3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +36 | $32 | $32 | 2 | 06-15 13:11 |
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | +35 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 06-01 19:37 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +29 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 06-15 12:22 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +26 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 06-01 09:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd74…47c5 | Yes | +25 | $2 | $2 | 4 | 06-17 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +25 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-01 19:37 |
| Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-15 12:22 |
| Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 06-03 05:07 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $6 | 3 | 06-08 13:47 |
| Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | +9 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-17 04:01 |
| Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-04 05:24 |
| Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-16 01:12 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 01:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 04:01:07 | Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x40918c… |
| 06-17 04:01:07 | (anonymous) 0xfd74…47c5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x40918c… |
| 06-17 04:01:05 | Safe-Sparerib 0x04d5…188f | No | BUY | 4 | 93¢ | $4 | 0xdc3bd8… |
| 06-17 04:01:05 | (anonymous) 0xfd74…47c5 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xdc3bd8… |
| 06-16 01:12:49 | Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9cb87c… |
| 06-16 01:12:49 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9cb87c… |
| 06-15 13:11:58 | (anonymous) 0xfd74…47c5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xa9dc8b… |
| 06-15 13:11:58 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 6 | 86¢ | $5 | 0xa9dc8b… |
| 06-15 12:22:31 | Measly-Gelatin 0x28ca…5d19 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xc3a569… |
| 06-15 12:22:31 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | SELL | 7 | 90¢ | $7 | 0xc3a569… |
| 06-15 12:22:31 | (anonymous) 0xfd74…47c5 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xc3a569… |
| 06-15 12:22:31 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xc3a569… |
| 06-08 13:47:58 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 30 | 90¢ | $27 | 0x0bf35c… |
| 06-08 13:47:58 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x0bf35c… |
| 06-04 05:24:00 | Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | No | BUY | 6 | 87¢ | $5 | 0x46438b… |
| 06-04 05:24:00 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x46438b… |
| 06-03 05:07:05 | Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xeacf1c… |
| 06-03 05:07:05 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xeacf1c… |
| 06-02 03:44:40 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xb4ce50… |
| 06-02 03:44:40 | Kind-Bow 0xeea5…93a6 | No | SELL | 1 | 80¢ | $1 | 0xb4ce50… |
| 06-01 19:37:05 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x966e72… |
| 06-01 19:37:05 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | BUY | 35 | 80¢ | $28 | 0x966e72… |
| 06-01 19:37:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x966e72… |
| 06-01 14:47:24 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xfb6349… |
| 06-01 14:47:24 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xfb6349… |
| 06-01 09:27:32 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x0eba51… |
| 06-01 09:27:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x0eba51… |
| 06-01 09:15:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x6cf23c… |
| 06-01 09:15:14 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x6cf23c… |
| 06-01 07:55:17 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x0ae81b… |
| 06-01 07:55:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x0ae81b… |