Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 21% or more?
open
Total volume
$631
Trades
107
Unique wallets
44
Liquidity
$15,679
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-22 08:42
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.9¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $619
vs crowd: 2% YES on $625)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 25 | $8 | $613 | $605 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9 | $2 | — | +$2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 21 | $6 | $613 | $607 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Median | 3 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Below median | 2 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $3 | — | +$3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +1,875 | $6 | $6 | 7 | 10-03 09:44 |
| Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | +540 | $0 | $3 | 14 | 10-16 07:15 |
| Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | +150 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 09-08 21:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | +150 | $0 | $1 | 9 | 10-16 07:15 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +142 | $142 | $142 | 2 | 09-08 21:45 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +85 | $85 | $85 | 1 | 09-10 14:30 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +80 | $80 | $80 | 2 | 09-04 16:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | +65 | $0 | $1 | 9 | 09-06 08:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +57 | $57 | $57 | 2 | 09-04 14:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-22 08:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xfab1…f0cc | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 09-04 16:03 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 2 | 09-04 12:39 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 09-04 14:59 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 09-08 21:45 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +36 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 09-10 12:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +34 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 09-04 13:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | +21 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 09-10 05:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +21 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 09-10 14:30 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 09-04 12:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 09-04 14:59 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-20 04:54 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 08-20 04:54 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-03 22:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | +18 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-03 22:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 09-08 21:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-04 16:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-03 10:53 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-04 16:03 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 09-08 21:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-08 21:44 |
| Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-04 16:03 |
| Pure-Eyeliner 0x1abc…45e7 | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 09-04 17:52 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 08:42:24 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf70d82… |
| 10-22 08:42:24 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | SELL | 46 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf70d82… |
| 10-22 06:12:40 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6a078c… |
| 10-22 06:12:40 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6a078c… |
| 10-16 07:15:58 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd4d112… |
| 10-16 07:15:58 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd4d112… |
| 10-03 10:53:38 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 65 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5b830b… |
| 10-03 10:53:38 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5b830b… |
| 10-03 10:53:38 | (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5b830b… |
| 10-03 10:10:36 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb0b9cc… |
| 10-03 10:10:36 | (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb0b9cc… |
| 10-03 09:58:11 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 186 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6cde0d… |
| 10-03 09:58:11 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | Yes | SELL | 256 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6cde0d… |
| 10-03 09:54:00 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbffe7f… |
| 10-03 09:54:00 | (anonymous) 0x8373…f0bc | Yes | SELL | 35 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbffe7f… |
| 10-03 09:53:11 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x43adbb… |
| 10-03 09:53:11 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x43adbb… |
| 10-03 09:53:11 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf21c53… |
| 10-03 09:53:11 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf21c53… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x41a380… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 144 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x41a380… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | Yes | SELL | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x85e032… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x85e032… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | SELL | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbe79cf… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | Yes | SELL | 193 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x41a380… |
| 10-03 09:52:48 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xbe79cf… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 21 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 717 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | Rare-Azimuth 0x4868…a1c1 | Yes | SELL | 161 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 10-03 09:44:39 | Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | SELL | 439 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4a75f8… |
| 09-10 14:30:55 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 11 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7f9832… |
| 09-10 14:30:55 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 85 | 100¢ | $85 | 0x7f9832… |
| 09-10 14:30:55 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 74 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7f9832… |
| 09-10 12:25:24 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xfa1867… |
| 09-10 12:25:24 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 16 | 100¢ | $16 | 0xe30844… |
| 09-10 12:25:24 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe30844… |
| 09-10 12:25:24 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfa1867… |
| 09-10 10:27:54 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 144 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x231291… |
| 09-10 10:27:54 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x231291… |
| 09-10 05:57:51 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x35b36c… |
| 09-10 05:57:51 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 97 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x35b36c… |
| 09-10 05:57:51 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | SELL | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x35b36c… |
| 09-10 05:42:49 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 137 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xadef00… |
| 09-10 05:42:49 | (anonymous) 0x126e…d35f | Yes | SELL | 22 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xadef00… |
| 09-10 05:42:49 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xadef00… |
| 09-10 05:42:49 | (anonymous) 0x5577…53d2 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xadef00… |
| 09-08 21:45:37 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 134 | 100¢ | $134 | 0xa34ac8… |
| 09-08 21:45:37 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x8319d4… |
| 09-08 21:45:37 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x8319d4… |
| 09-08 21:45:37 | (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | BUY | 28 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa34ac8… |
| 09-08 21:45:37 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 107 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa34ac8… |
| 09-08 21:44:04 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x2b3bee… |
| 09-08 21:44:04 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2b3bee… |
| 09-08 21:44:04 | (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2b3bee… |
| 09-08 21:44:04 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2b3bee… |
| 09-08 02:30:09 | Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | SELL | 302 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x69dfe5… |
| 09-08 02:30:09 | Short-Term-Nightgown 0x0708…f218 | Yes | BUY | 302 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x69dfe5… |
| 09-06 23:30:30 | (anonymous) 0x7474…cef7 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x95594d… |
| 09-06 23:30:30 | Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x95594d… |
| 09-06 08:44:52 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 101 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x777221… |
| 09-06 08:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | SELL | 7 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x777221… |
| 09-06 08:44:52 | Harsh-Macro 0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | SELL | 66 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x777221… |
| 09-05 06:19:27 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | Yes | SELL | 197 | 0¢ | $1 | 0xa0c327… |
| 09-05 06:19:27 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | Yes | SELL | 103 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa0c327… |
| 09-05 06:19:27 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 340 | 0¢ | $1 | 0xa0c327… |
| 09-05 06:19:27 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | SELL | 40 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa0c327… |
| 09-05 06:00:24 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 340 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x6dc22f… |
| 09-05 06:00:24 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | Yes | SELL | 340 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x6dc22f… |
| 09-04 17:52:58 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd66096… |
| 09-04 17:52:58 | Pure-Eyeliner 0x1abc…45e7 | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0xd66096… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | (anonymous) 0xfab1…f0cc | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 16:03:22 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xff1e60… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2cf28f… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0xfab1…f0cc | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2cf28f… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 18 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2cf28f… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | BUY | 38 | 100¢ | $38 | 0xe63217… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2cf28f… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | (anonymous) 0xfab1…f0cc | Yes | BUY | 38 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe63217… |
| 09-04 14:59:48 | Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | BUY | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x2cf28f… |
| 09-04 13:31:16 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 34 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb525be… |
| 09-04 13:31:16 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 34 | 100¢ | $33 | 0xb525be… |
| 09-04 13:30:49 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 8 | 100¢ | $8 | 0xea99d6… |
| 09-04 13:30:49 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 8 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xea99d6… |
| 09-04 13:30:49 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xb3e6ac… |
| 09-04 13:30:49 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb3e6ac… |
| 09-04 12:39:16 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x663f05… |
| 09-04 12:39:16 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x663f05… |
| 09-04 12:39:15 | (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2f029b… |
| 09-04 12:39:15 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0x2f029b… |
| 09-04 09:55:01 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | BUY | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x4e990c… |
| 09-04 09:55:01 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4e990c… |
| 09-03 22:58:03 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6b7e67… |