Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$129
Trades
27
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$298
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
85¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-04 10:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | — | $22 | $22 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $7 | $9 | $2 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $7 | $19 | $13 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $18 | $9 | +$9 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $0 | $27 | $27 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 3 | $7 | $10 | $3 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $7 | — | +$7 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $14 | $14 |
| unranked | 6 | $18 | $8 | +$10 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | +41 | $8 | $20 | 3 | 06-25 22:45 |
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | +26 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-25 22:42 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +21 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-07 02:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xfacf…1b2e | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-01 05:48 |
| ProfessionalPunter 0x22e4…ef1c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x7118…f07c | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| Adept-Horseradish 0xdf95…0b47 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 22:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 10:02 |
| Traumatic-Yogurt 0x0b46…625f | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-01 12:15 |
| Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-03 01:44 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-03 01:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 10:02:43 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xf830ac… |
| 07-04 10:02:43 | (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xf830ac… |
| 07-03 01:44:29 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd068d2… |
| 07-03 01:44:29 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xd068d2… |
| 07-01 12:15:32 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x5da214… |
| 07-01 12:15:32 | Traumatic-Yogurt 0x0b46…625f | No | BUY | 3 | 89¢ | $3 | 0x5da214… |
| 07-01 12:06:46 | (anonymous) 0x7118…f07c | No | BUY | 6 | 86¢ | $5 | 0x474c8b… |
| 07-01 12:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x474c8b… |
| 07-01 12:06:44 | ProfessionalPunter 0x22e4…ef1c | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x03c37d… |
| 07-01 12:06:44 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x03c37d… |
| 07-01 05:48:10 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 73¢ | $7 | 0x032e4d… |
| 07-01 05:48:10 | (anonymous) 0xfacf…1b2e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 27¢ | $3 | 0x032e4d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 7 | 76¢ | $5 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 23¢ | $6 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | BUY | 26 | 73¢ | $19 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 28¢ | $3 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 71¢ | $7 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 21¢ | $6 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 19¢ | $11 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | Venerated-Dawn 0xfdd1…1829 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-07 02:23:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 21 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x2f6693… |
| 06-07 02:23:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 32¢ | $7 | 0x2f6693… |
| 06-02 22:17:28 | Adept-Horseradish 0xdf95…0b47 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x6a7cb8… |
| 06-02 22:17:28 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x6a7cb8… |