Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$2,388
Trades
97
Unique wallets
51
Liquidity
$298
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-23 13:57
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $2 | $1.6K | $1.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $7 | $34 | $27 |
| 🐟 Fish | 10 | $60 | $28 | +$32 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $30 | $530 | $500 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $0 | $637 | $637 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $1 | $27 | $26 |
| Median | 12 | $3 | $738 | $735 |
| Below median | 4 | $7 | $12 | $4 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $7 | — | +$7 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $0 | $234 | $233 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $44 | $44 |
| unranked | 19 | $80 | $526 | $446 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +730 | $728 | $728 | 1 | 07-23 03:29 |
| Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | +666 | $613 | $613 | 3 | 07-13 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xe866…90ca | No | +505 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 07-13 16:00 |
| Crooked-Insurance 0x7b0f…145c | Yes | +500 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-23 03:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | +500 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 07-13 10:17 |
| Gummy-Theater 0x562b…dc09 | No | +234 | $234 | $234 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +200 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-13 16:00 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +161 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-23 03:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | +156 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 07-13 14:43 |
| Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | +150 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-13 16:00 |
| Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 13 | 07-23 13:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x58cc…7398 | Yes | +96 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-13 17:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xc805…3ede | Yes | +67 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-14 23:47 |
| Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xc3da…1dd8 | Yes | +49 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-20 16:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | +41 | $8 | $20 | 3 | 06-25 22:45 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-22 00:28 |
| Haunting-Pinkie 0x8adf…48cd | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-22 00:28 |
| Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | +26 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-25 22:42 |
| Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | +26 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 07-13 14:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-13 10:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 07-23 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xfacf…1b2e | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-01 05:48 |
| ProfessionalPunter 0x22e4…ef1c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 13:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x7118…f07c | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 12:06 |
| Everlasting-Emerald 0x84d2…98c0 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-23 13:56 |
| Voluminous-Avocado-Hackwork 0x85cb…db4a | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-14 23:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xf3ef…5400 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-13 15:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-20 16:49 |
| Adept-Horseradish 0xdf95…0b47 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 22:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-04 10:02 |
| Traumatic-Yogurt 0x0b46…625f | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-01 12:15 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $3 | 3 | 07-21 03:16 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-21 03:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 13:57:27 | (anonymous) 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:57:27 | Gummy-Theater 0x562b…dc09 | No | BUY | 234 | 100¢ | $234 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:57:27 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:57:27 | Nonstop-Knitting 0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:57:27 | Deafening-Possible 0x75cb…1556 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:57:27 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd8af5e… |
| 07-23 13:56:45 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xac1500… |
| 07-23 13:56:45 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xac1500… |
| 07-23 13:56:45 | Everlasting-Emerald 0x84d2…98c0 | No | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xac1500… |
| 07-23 03:29:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 730 | 100¢ | $728 | 0x79f51c… |
| 07-23 03:29:34 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x79f51c… |
| 07-23 03:29:34 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 140 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x79f51c… |
| 07-23 03:29:34 | Crooked-Insurance 0x7b0f…145c | Yes | BUY | 500 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x79f51c… |
| 07-23 01:59:15 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xafd2fe… |
| 07-23 01:59:15 | Likely-Mama 0x2f0d…7ca3 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xafd2fe… |
| 07-23 01:59:13 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x32abfc… |
| 07-23 01:59:13 | Deserted-Alley 0xbf6f…be8e | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x32abfc… |
| 07-23 01:59:10 | Studious-Whelp 0x4956…2a4d | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8a9dd9… |
| 07-23 01:59:10 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8a9dd9… |
| 07-23 01:59:09 | Polished-Scheme 0xb62e…f989 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x6ef03e… |
| 07-23 01:59:09 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x6ef03e… |
| 07-23 01:59:07 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8b81eb… |
| 07-23 01:59:07 | Tidy-Leverage 0x6b92…d7b9 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x8b81eb… |
| 07-23 01:33:12 | Likely-Mama 0x2f0d…7ca3 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xaa2ad2… |
| 07-23 01:33:12 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xaa2ad2… |
| 07-23 01:33:01 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf7b052… |
| 07-23 01:33:01 | Deserted-Alley 0xbf6f…be8e | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xf7b052… |
| 07-23 01:33:00 | Studious-Whelp 0x4956…2a4d | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xc90702… |
| 07-23 01:33:00 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc90702… |
| 07-23 01:32:57 | Tidy-Leverage 0x6b92…d7b9 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x3048c4… |
| 07-23 01:32:57 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3048c4… |
| 07-23 01:32:48 | Polished-Scheme 0xb62e…f989 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x84beab… |
| 07-23 01:32:48 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x84beab… |
| 07-22 14:46:28 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2c6509… |
| 07-22 14:46:28 | Genuine-Tribe 0x613b…da44 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2c6509… |
| 07-22 00:28:16 | Haunting-Pinkie 0x8adf…48cd | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x6545fa… |
| 07-22 00:28:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6545fa… |
| 07-21 03:16:33 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdb5735… |
| 07-21 03:16:33 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xdb5735… |
| 07-20 16:49:18 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x5b1e16… |
| 07-20 16:49:18 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5b1e16… |
| 07-20 16:49:18 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5b1e16… |
| 07-20 16:49:18 | (anonymous) 0xc3da…1dd8 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5b1e16… |
| 07-14 23:47:14 | (anonymous) 0xc805…3ede | Yes | BUY | 67 | 7¢ | $5 | 0x0a4c97… |
| 07-14 23:47:14 | Voluminous-Avocado-Hackwork 0x85cb…db4a | No | BUY | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x0a4c97… |
| 07-14 23:47:14 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x0a4c97… |
| 07-13 23:31:50 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xdc567d… |
| 07-13 23:31:50 | Voluminous-Avocado-Hackwork 0x85cb…db4a | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xdc567d… |
| 07-13 17:42:35 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 13 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x70599b… |
| 07-13 17:42:35 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x70599b… |
| 07-13 17:42:35 | (anonymous) 0x58cc…7398 | Yes | BUY | 96 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x70599b… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 103 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 21 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 38 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 1¢ | $2 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | (anonymous) 0xe866…90ca | No | BUY | 505 | 99¢ | $500 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 16:00:10 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xaaafa7… |
| 07-13 15:54:13 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1d3406… |
| 07-13 15:54:13 | (anonymous) 0xf3ef…5400 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1d3406… |
| 07-13 14:43:14 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | BUY | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa1d60b… |
| 07-13 14:43:14 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | No | BUY | 26 | 95¢ | $25 | 0xa1d60b… |
| 07-13 14:43:14 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa1d60b… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | (anonymous) 0x819f…f3e7 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 8¢ | $40 | 0x00a0cb… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | BUY | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0x4cb6b9… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | BUY | 125 | 92¢ | $115 | 0x4cb6b9… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | SELL | 21 | 92¢ | $19 | 0xa27c9b… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | BUY | 520 | 92¢ | $478 | 0x00a0cb… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | (anonymous) 0x85df…fb48 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x00a0cb… |
| 07-13 10:17:53 | Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | BUY | 21 | 92¢ | $19 | 0xa27c9b… |
| 07-04 10:02:43 | (anonymous) 0x1e98…e04e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xf830ac… |
| 07-04 10:02:43 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xf830ac… |
| 07-03 01:44:29 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd068d2… |
| 07-03 01:44:29 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xd068d2… |
| 07-01 12:15:32 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x5da214… |
| 07-01 12:15:32 | Traumatic-Yogurt 0x0b46…625f | No | BUY | 3 | 89¢ | $3 | 0x5da214… |
| 07-01 12:06:46 | (anonymous) 0x7118…f07c | No | BUY | 6 | 86¢ | $5 | 0x474c8b… |
| 07-01 12:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x474c8b… |
| 07-01 12:06:44 | ProfessionalPunter 0x22e4…ef1c | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x03c37d… |
| 07-01 12:06:44 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x03c37d… |
| 07-01 05:48:10 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 73¢ | $7 | 0x032e4d… |
| 07-01 05:48:10 | (anonymous) 0xfacf…1b2e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 27¢ | $3 | 0x032e4d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 23¢ | $6 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:45:14 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 7 | 76¢ | $5 | 0x12920d… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 28¢ | $3 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | Exhausted-Patina-Disability 0x1206…1362 | No | BUY | 26 | 73¢ | $19 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 22:42:50 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 71¢ | $7 | 0xfd569a… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 21¢ | $6 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | Venerated-Dawn 0xfdd1…1829 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-25 21:33:56 | (anonymous) 0x10ca…f324 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 19¢ | $11 | 0x0dd867… |
| 06-07 02:23:51 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 32¢ | $7 | 0x2f6693… |
| 06-07 02:23:51 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 21 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x2f6693… |
| 06-02 22:17:28 | Adept-Horseradish 0xdf95…0b47 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x6a7cb8… |
| 06-02 22:17:28 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x6a7cb8… |