Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 25%-30%?
open
Total volume
$1,273
$671 in 24h
Trades
173
Unique wallets
54
Liquidity
$11,324
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-21
last 10-26 21:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-14.5¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $364
vs crowd: 17% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 25 | $40 | $798 | $758 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 14 | $120 | $53 | +$68 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $10 | $33 | $22 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $15 | $6 | +$9 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 16 | $10 | $354 | $343 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $3 | $177 | $174 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $28 | $28 |
| Median | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| Below median | 4 | $17 | $22 | $6 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $7 | $70 | $63 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 13 | $41 | $238 | $196 |
| unranked | 4 | $103 | — | +$103 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +448 | $40 | $40 | 35 | 09-21 11:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +168 | $156 | $156 | 11 | 10-22 10:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | +155 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-25 00:13 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +109 | $91 | $91 | 1 | 10-26 19:09 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +84 | $10 | $10 | 5 | 10-11 09:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | +80 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-26 20:17 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +78 | $69 | $69 | 4 | 09-11 18:54 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +77 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 10-26 20:17 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +75 | $68 | $68 | 5 | 09-20 04:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | +60 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 10-26 19:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +50 | $41 | $41 | 2 | 10-26 20:12 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +46 | $42 | $42 | 3 | 09-11 11:09 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +40 | $5 | $15 | 5 | 10-26 21:04 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +40 | $35 | $35 | 2 | 10-01 14:47 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +31 | $28 | $28 | 3 | 09-11 08:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xeaa3…8edd | No | +30 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 09-11 18:54 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +28 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 09-11 13:46 |
| Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | +25 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 09-19 01:26 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +25 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 09-20 04:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-18 00:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-26 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 09-18 00:50 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 10-26 19:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-26 19:09 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +18 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 09-19 01:26 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +17 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 09-17 12:33 |
| Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | +13 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-26 20:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | +12 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-26 20:17 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-10 17:20 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-17 08:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-22 10:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-28 15:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x0675…ea85 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 09-20 01:55 |
| Mysterious-Tune 0xf50e…f125 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-13 18:50 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-18 02:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-19 15:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-29 00:28 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 21:04:51 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x055ba6… |
| 10-26 21:04:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x055ba6… |
| 10-26 20:53:50 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x539cee… |
| 10-26 20:53:50 | Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | BUY | 13 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x539cee… |
| 10-26 20:17:27 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xc9b82e… |
| 10-26 20:17:27 | (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 16¢ | $6 | 0xc9b82e… |
| 10-26 20:17:27 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 16¢ | $12 | 0xc9b82e… |
| 10-26 20:17:27 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 127 | 16¢ | $21 | 0xc9b82e… |
| 10-26 20:12:44 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc31de1… |
| 10-26 20:12:44 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc31de1… |
| 10-26 19:35:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 60 | 16¢ | $10 | 0x39bd5f… |
| 10-26 19:35:06 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x39bd5f… |
| 10-26 19:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 192 | 16¢ | $31 | 0x39bd5f… |
| 10-26 19:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 16¢ | $7 | 0x39bd5f… |
| 10-26 19:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 72 | 84¢ | $60 | 0x39bd5f… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 72 | 86¢ | $62 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | BUY | 60 | 85¢ | $51 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | BUY | 332 | 15¢ | $51 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 109 | 84¢ | $91 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x1466bd… |
| 10-26 19:09:12 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 0 | 83¢ | $0 | 0x84bfd9… |
| 10-26 19:09:12 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x84bfd9… |
| 10-25 00:13:50 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x004629… |
| 10-25 00:13:50 | Charming-Collar 0x90b8…8665 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x004629… |
| 10-25 00:13:50 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 26 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x004629… |
| 10-25 00:13:50 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 25 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x004629… |
| 10-25 00:13:50 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 155 | 6¢ | $10 | 0x004629… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x677bc7… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x677bc7… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x700dbd… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x700dbd… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | Charming-Collar 0x90b8…8665 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x677bc7… |
| 10-22 10:35:35 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x677bc7… |
| 10-11 09:49:27 | (anonymous) 0xc2b3…cd72 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xbeeac2… |
| 10-11 09:49:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xbeeac2… |
| 10-10 08:20:48 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x5b1ef9… |
| 10-10 08:20:48 | (anonymous) 0xcb07…dd84 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x5b1ef9… |
| 10-10 08:20:48 | (anonymous) 0xc2b3…cd72 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5b1ef9… |
| 10-01 14:47:02 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xee1d41… |
| 10-01 14:47:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xee1d41… |
| 10-01 14:47:00 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x3e2501… |
| 10-01 14:47:00 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x6202da… |
| 10-01 14:47:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x3e2501… |
| 10-01 14:47:00 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x6202da… |
| 09-27 09:25:20 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x2fe9e3… |
| 09-27 09:25:20 | Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x2fe9e3… |
| 09-22 08:12:09 | (anonymous) 0x7913…e646 | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x3edac3… |
| 09-22 08:12:09 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x3edac3… |
| 09-21 11:49:00 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3fbcb8… |
| 09-21 11:49:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3fbcb8… |
| 09-21 11:48:45 | (anonymous) 0xcb07…dd84 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6672c1… |
| 09-21 11:48:45 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xb51ee2… |
| 09-21 11:48:45 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 17 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6672c1… |
| 09-21 11:48:45 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xb51ee2… |
| 09-20 05:01:55 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xce9439… |
| 09-20 05:01:55 | (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | Yes | SELL | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xce9439… |
| 09-20 04:31:04 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x8db5a2… |
| 09-20 04:31:04 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x8db5a2… |
| 09-20 04:31:04 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0x5178ca… |
| 09-20 04:31:04 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x5178ca… |
| 09-20 04:25:10 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0xc0ceca… |
| 09-20 04:25:10 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xc0ceca… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x4dfe74… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x525d9d… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x92f95d… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x4dfe74… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0x0675…ea85 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x92f95d… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 30 | 86¢ | $26 | 0x525d9d… |
| 09-20 01:55:21 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x525d9d… |
| 09-20 00:31:55 | (anonymous) 0x1f43…fcd5 | No | SELL | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x94dea3… |
| 09-20 00:31:55 | (anonymous) 0x7913…e646 | No | BUY | 1 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x94dea3… |
| 09-19 15:52:17 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 1 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x9dc8d8… |
| 09-19 15:52:17 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x9dc8d8… |
| 09-19 15:49:29 | (anonymous) 0x2eb9…d398 | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x7f812b… |
| 09-19 15:49:29 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x7f812b… |
| 09-19 01:26:30 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 8 | 88¢ | $7 | 0x570a97… |
| 09-19 01:26:30 | Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x570a97… |
| 09-18 17:35:52 | (anonymous) 0x1f43…fcd5 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xe7d6b0… |
| 09-18 17:35:52 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xe7d6b0… |
| 09-18 17:35:09 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x074545… |
| 09-18 17:35:09 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 8 | 91¢ | $7 | 0x074545… |
| 09-18 17:34:57 | Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x0aa865… |
| 09-18 17:34:57 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 17 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x0aa865… |
| 09-18 02:11:15 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 3 | 91¢ | $3 | 0x73211c… |
| 09-18 02:11:15 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x73211c… |
| 09-18 00:56:45 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x0e704a… |
| 09-18 00:56:45 | (anonymous) 0x2eb9…d398 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x0e704a… |
| 09-18 00:56:42 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x635504… |
| 09-18 00:56:42 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xa0d6c0… |
| 09-18 00:56:42 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 7 | 91¢ | $6 | 0xa0d6c0… |
| 09-18 00:56:42 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x635504… |
| 09-18 00:50:49 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | BUY | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xd88d2d… |
| 09-18 00:50:49 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xd88d2d… |
| 09-18 00:50:42 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x9600e9… |
| 09-18 00:50:42 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 22 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x9600e9… |
| 09-18 00:50:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xc836a2… |