Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-15 House election by 35%-40%?
open
Total volume
$4,851
Trades
355
Unique wallets
70
Liquidity
$2,133
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-27
last 11-04 19:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-15.1¢
(top1%: 7% YES on $411
vs crowd: 22% YES on $3.4K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 38 | $395 | $2.1K | $1.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 20 | $281 | $392 | $111 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $57 | $93 | $37 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | — | $23 | $23 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 22 | $27 | $384 | $356 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $0 | $14 | $14 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $174 | $7 | +$168 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $16 | $16 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $43 | $121 | $78 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 13 | $68 | $225 | $157 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 24 | $420 | $1.9K | $1.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +929 | $233 | $233 | 17 | 11-03 05:10 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +587 | $424 | $424 | 21 | 10-31 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +387 | $27 | $321 | 5 | 11-02 13:27 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +149 | $137 | $421 | 15 | 10-08 17:54 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +110 | $81 | $81 | 2 | 10-15 16:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +89 | $66 | $66 | 8 | 10-24 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +72 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 11-02 13:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +72 | $54 | $54 | 3 | 11-02 13:27 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +70 | $58 | $427 | 20 | 11-02 13:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +70 | $18 | $19 | 4 | 10-31 08:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +69 | $52 | $52 | 3 | 10-31 08:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +60 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +60 | $45 | $45 | 2 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +60 | $14 | $14 | 4 | 10-24 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +60 | $49 | $77 | 7 | 10-24 23:44 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +56 | $42 | $42 | 4 | 10-31 14:57 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +55 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 09-28 12:06 |
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +50 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-02 16:19 |
| Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | +47 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 11-04 19:21 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | +42 | $32 | $63 | 4 | 11-03 05:10 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +40 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 09-19 01:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +38 | $5 | $11 | 5 | 11-04 05:48 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +34 | $24 | $24 | 3 | 09-19 16:12 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $9 | $26 | 3 | 10-31 14:57 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 11-04 04:00 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 10-27 08:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +29 | $21 | $21 | 4 | 09-11 10:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | No | +28 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 11-04 05:48 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +22 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 09-11 09:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | Yes | +22 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | +21 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-29 20:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | +21 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-29 20:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-11 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-28 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-12 19:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 11-04 05:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 08-27 02:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-11 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-12 19:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 09-19 16:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-27 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 11-01 16:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-28 12:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-29 20:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x5304…428b | No | +18 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-08 17:54 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +15 | $7 | $57 | 12 | 11-03 04:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | +7 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-31 17:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-03 04:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $18 | 6 | 10-31 14:57 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-27 02:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 19:21:21 | Queasy-Cougar 0xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x30532a… |
| 11-04 19:21:21 | Modern-Wolf 0x0bf7…43a2 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x30532a… |
| 11-04 05:48:06 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | No | BUY | 28 | 97¢ | $28 | 0x02989b… |
| 11-04 05:48:06 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x02989b… |
| 11-04 05:48:06 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 18 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x02989b… |
| 11-04 04:00:30 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x049f11… |
| 11-04 04:00:30 | (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x049f11… |
| 11-04 04:00:30 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0x049f11… |
| 11-03 05:10:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 24¢ | $10 | 0xc8f261… |
| 11-03 05:10:06 | (anonymous) 0x305d…c253 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc8f261… |
| 11-03 05:10:06 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 21 | 76¢ | $16 | 0xc8f261… |
| 11-03 04:59:33 | Sardonic-Caper 0x2d6c…e3f5 | No | SELL | 42 | 80¢ | $34 | 0x274c51… |
| 11-03 04:59:33 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x274c51… |
| 11-03 04:59:33 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 49 | 20¢ | $10 | 0x274c51… |
| 11-02 13:27:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x323cf3… |
| 11-02 13:27:01 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 11 | 77¢ | $8 | 0x323cf3… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 24¢ | $6 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 77¢ | $18 | 0xf8e7dc… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 23¢ | $6 | 0xf8e7dc… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | SELL | 129 | 24¢ | $31 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-02 13:27:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 60 | 24¢ | $14 | 0xa7cc77… |
| 11-01 16:43:45 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x740854… |
| 11-01 16:43:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x740854… |
| 10-31 20:06:33 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | SELL | 13 | 73¢ | $10 | 0x484843… |
| 10-31 20:06:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 13 | 73¢ | $10 | 0x484843… |
| 10-31 17:04:01 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xb7b665… |
| 10-31 17:04:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xb7b665… |
| 10-31 17:04:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 27 | 74¢ | $20 | 0xb7b665… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x510ceb… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 26¢ | $6 | 0x510ceb… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 26¢ | $3 | 0xccbc13… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 26¢ | $12 | 0xccbc13… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 6 | 74¢ | $5 | 0x510ceb… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 14 | 74¢ | $10 | 0xccbc13… |
| 10-31 14:57:36 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 74¢ | $18 | 0xccbc13… |
| 10-31 08:51:01 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0xcac7a1… |
| 10-31 08:51:01 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $14 | 0xbf1fd5… |
| 10-31 08:51:01 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $14 | 0xbf1fd5… |
| 10-31 08:51:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 41 | 73¢ | $30 | 0xcac7a1… |
| 10-31 08:51:01 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | SELL | 21 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xcac7a1… |
| 10-30 20:05:07 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | SELL | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xb158f9… |
| 10-30 20:05:07 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xb158f9… |
| 10-29 20:27:18 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xb4bec3… |
| 10-29 20:27:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xb4bec3… |
| 10-29 20:07:52 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0xef251c… |
| 10-29 20:07:52 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 21 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xca4aa6… |
| 10-29 20:07:52 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0xef251c… |
| 10-29 20:07:52 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 21 | 27¢ | $6 | 0xca4aa6… |
| 10-29 20:04:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 25¢ | $10 | 0xbc8b64… |
| 10-29 20:04:45 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 21 | 75¢ | $16 | 0xbc8b64… |
| 10-29 20:04:45 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xbc8b64… |
| 10-29 07:16:58 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 21 | 75¢ | $16 | 0x3c5b79… |
| 10-29 07:16:58 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x3c5b79… |
| 10-29 07:16:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x3c5b79… |
| 10-27 08:40:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 41 | 73¢ | $30 | 0xb8ae9f… |
| 10-27 08:40:02 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 41 | 73¢ | $30 | 0xb8ae9f… |
| 10-27 08:39:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 100 | 73¢ | $73 | 0x706506… |
| 10-27 08:39:59 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 100 | 73¢ | $73 | 0x706506… |
| 10-27 08:39:57 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 100 | 73¢ | $73 | 0x37f87a… |
| 10-27 08:39:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 100 | 73¢ | $73 | 0x37f87a… |
| 10-27 08:16:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 73¢ | $22 | 0x86d685… |
| 10-27 08:16:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 30 | 73¢ | $22 | 0x86d685… |
| 10-27 07:45:27 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xd6d085… |
| 10-27 07:45:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xd6d085… |
| 10-27 07:16:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 73¢ | $29 | 0x6df28f… |
| 10-27 07:16:26 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 40 | 73¢ | $29 | 0x6df28f… |
| 10-27 05:31:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 60 | 71¢ | $43 | 0x26691f… |
| 10-27 05:31:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 60 | 29¢ | $17 | 0x26691f… |
| 10-27 03:30:53 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 27¢ | $0 | 0x68a6a9… |
| 10-27 03:30:53 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 2 | 73¢ | $1 | 0x68a6a9… |
| 10-27 02:54:21 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 104 | 74¢ | $77 | 0x3e1e0c… |
| 10-27 02:54:21 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x3e1e0c… |
| 10-27 02:54:21 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 100 | 74¢ | $74 | 0x3e1e0c… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 25¢ | $6 | 0x871f87… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 22 | 75¢ | $16 | 0x59ac2e… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 24 | 75¢ | $18 | 0x871f87… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 25¢ | $8 | 0x37de82… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 31 | 75¢ | $24 | 0x37de82… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | Yes | BUY | 22 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x59ac2e… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x3d4183… |
| 10-27 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x3d4183… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x63d0b8… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 40 | 75¢ | $30 | 0x63d0b8… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 200 | 75¢ | $150 | 0x6ef972… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 40 | 75¢ | $30 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xbcc7d5… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xf9c6e3… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xbcc7d5… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 30 | 75¢ | $22 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 75¢ | $18 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xf9c6e3… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 174 | 25¢ | $44 | 0xa2c006… |
| 10-27 02:54:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 25¢ | $50 | 0x6ef972… |