Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-02 House election by 30%-35%?
open
Total volume
$1,091
Trades
159
Unique wallets
51
Liquidity
$2,104
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-27
last 10-28 00:51
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-9.4¢
(top1%: 6% YES on $313
vs crowd: 15% YES on $970)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 23 | $97 | $451 | $353 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 15 | $41 | $286 | $245 |
| 🐟 Fish | 13 | $11 | $85 | $74 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 16 | $19 | $294 | $276 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $22 | $64 | $42 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $0 | $38 | $37 |
| Median | 1 | — | $7 | $7 |
| Below median | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $8 | $9 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $14 | $68 | $54 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 14 | $86 | $341 | $255 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +369 | $40 | $40 | 19 | 10-27 20:45 |
| Cheery-Science 0x3089…92f6 | No | +181 | $148 | $148 | 1 | 10-10 04:33 |
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +162 | $16 | $16 | 5 | 09-27 09:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +88 | $15 | $15 | 8 | 10-03 02:48 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +83 | $14 | $14 | 5 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +78 | $71 | $71 | 7 | 10-03 03:39 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +54 | $47 | $47 | 5 | 10-09 12:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xcdbf…af8b | No | +48 | $40 | $40 | 3 | 10-03 03:39 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +40 | $38 | $38 | 2 | 10-22 17:33 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +40 | $37 | $37 | 1 | 09-21 08:47 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +34 | $28 | $44 | 3 | 10-12 09:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +30 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +30 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-09 21:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-10 04:33 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 09-27 09:27 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 10-24 15:52 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 09-27 09:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-09 15:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-10 04:33 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-09 21:40 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 09-30 08:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-10 04:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +19 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 09-06 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x04ec…45e8 | No | +18 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 10-03 03:08 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +17 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 09-30 08:16 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | +13 | $11 | $26 | 2 | 10-24 15:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x41b7…4ff3 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-28 00:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-28 01:01 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +10 | $0 | $5 | 3 | 10-22 17:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-22 17:33 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-18 09:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x41b7…4ff3 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-26 11:24 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-21 08:47 |
| Powerful-Waste 0x8fe7…6c1f | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 09-06 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-28 01:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x82e1…ae66 | No | +9 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 09-05 03:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe9f3…363e | No | +9 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 09-06 01:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | +8 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-12 09:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xbfbd…99fc | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-27 01:47 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 00:51:20 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xaaac0c… |
| 10-28 00:51:20 | (anonymous) 0x41b7…4ff3 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xaaac0c… |
| 10-27 20:45:15 | Accomplished-Granny 0xc876…8711 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xe9ee4b… |
| 10-27 20:45:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe9ee4b… |
| 10-27 20:45:15 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xe9ee4b… |
| 10-26 11:24:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0deb81… |
| 10-26 11:24:11 | (anonymous) 0x41b7…4ff3 | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x0deb81… |
| 10-24 15:52:45 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x55d3b0… |
| 10-24 15:52:45 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x55d3b0… |
| 10-24 15:52:45 | Accomplished-Granny 0xc876…8711 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x55d3b0… |
| 10-22 17:33:15 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x0bf025… |
| 10-22 17:33:15 | (anonymous) 0x41b7…4ff3 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0bf025… |
| 10-22 17:33:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0bf025… |
| 10-22 17:33:15 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0bf025… |
| 10-12 09:52:02 | (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x7e42b5… |
| 10-12 09:52:02 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x7e42b5… |
| 10-10 13:27:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x0dd7ef… |
| 10-10 13:27:58 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x0dd7ef… |
| 10-10 13:27:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x0dd7ef… |
| 10-10 12:42:03 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | SELL | 81 | 7¢ | $6 | 0xee238b… |
| 10-10 12:42:03 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xee238b… |
| 10-10 12:42:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xee238b… |
| 10-10 11:28:30 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | SELL | 61 | 5¢ | $3 | 0xc313da… |
| 10-10 11:28:30 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | BUY | 81 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xc313da… |
| 10-10 11:28:30 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc313da… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | BUY | 61 | 18¢ | $11 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x1d7b71… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x1d7b71… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x16299b… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | Cheery-Science 0x3089…92f6 | No | BUY | 181 | 82¢ | $148 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x16299b… |
| 10-10 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xcaf1d8… |
| 10-10 04:33:12 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xe39311… |
| 10-10 04:33:12 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xa8e721… |
| 10-10 04:33:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xa8e721… |
| 10-10 04:33:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xe39311… |
| 10-09 21:40:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xb2a4cd… |
| 10-09 21:40:29 | (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xb2a4cd… |
| 10-09 15:14:58 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 30 | 85¢ | $25 | 0x3538aa… |
| 10-09 15:14:58 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 30 | 85¢ | $25 | 0x3538aa… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 30 | 86¢ | $26 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 14¢ | $14 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 15:14:43 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xa65b52… |
| 10-09 12:01:54 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x7d498c… |
| 10-09 12:01:54 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 11 | 88¢ | $10 | 0x7d498c… |
| 10-03 03:39:53 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 84¢ | $3 | 0x0d6345… |
| 10-03 03:39:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xbe4b0a… |
| 10-03 03:39:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x0d6345… |
| 10-03 03:39:53 | (anonymous) 0xcdbf…af8b | No | BUY | 28 | 84¢ | $23 | 0xbe4b0a… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | (anonymous) 0xcdbf…af8b | No | BUY | 9 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x0fcabc… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x0fcabc… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x7b526d… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xa333bd… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 15 | 83¢ | $13 | 0xa333bd… |
| 10-03 03:24:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x7b526d… |
| 10-03 03:15:03 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x2729a0… |
| 10-03 03:15:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x2729a0… |
| 10-03 03:10:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x06ed37… |
| 10-03 03:10:41 | (anonymous) 0xcdbf…af8b | No | BUY | 12 | 83¢ | $10 | 0x06ed37… |
| 10-03 03:08:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x6e908c… |
| 10-03 03:08:57 | (anonymous) 0x04ec…45e8 | No | BUY | 7 | 84¢ | $6 | 0x6e908c… |
| 10-03 02:48:32 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xf1080d… |
| 10-03 02:48:32 | (anonymous) 0xaa6e…cdda | Yes | SELL | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xf1080d… |
| 10-03 02:48:27 | (anonymous) 0x04ec…45e8 | No | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $9 | 0x7d1531… |
| 10-03 02:48:27 | (anonymous) 0xaa6e…cdda | Yes | BUY | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x7d1531… |
| 09-30 08:16:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x86359b… |
| 09-30 08:16:20 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 10 | 88¢ | $9 | 0xc64342… |
| 09-30 08:16:20 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 4 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x86359b… |
| 09-30 08:16:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xc64342… |
| 09-28 07:55:53 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xd47490… |
| 09-28 07:55:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xd47490… |
| 09-28 01:01:02 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2c311f… |
| 09-28 01:01:02 | (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x2c311f… |
| 09-28 01:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x7d287e… |
| 09-28 01:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xbf100c… |
| 09-28 01:01:00 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0xbf100c… |
| 09-28 01:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x90c5…45e6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x7d287e… |
| 09-28 01:00:59 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2b4850… |
| 09-28 01:00:59 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2b4850… |
| 09-28 00:12:26 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0xadcb5b… |
| 09-28 00:12:26 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 3 | 87¢ | $3 | 0xadcb5b… |
| 09-27 09:27:48 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x2d253a… |
| 09-27 09:27:48 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2d253a… |
| 09-27 09:27:24 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | BUY | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0xa287f1… |
| 09-27 09:27:24 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0xa287f1… |
| 09-27 09:27:24 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xa287f1… |
| 09-27 09:27:12 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xb26fb0… |
| 09-27 09:27:12 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb26fb0… |
| 09-27 09:27:12 | Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xb26fb0… |
| 09-24 19:39:23 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0xedf1bb… |
| 09-24 19:39:23 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0xedf1bb… |