Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?
open
Total volume
$282
Trades
34
Unique wallets
18
Liquidity
$176
Latest YES mid
18¢
Latest NO mid
82¢
End date
2026-07-30
First seen
2026-06-05
last 07-07 21:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $18 | $21 | $4 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $3 | $178 | $175 |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $25 | $5 | +$19 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| Median | 2 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
| Below median | 4 | $7 | $9 | $2 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $12 | $169 | $157 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $21 | $21 |
| unranked | 6 | $18 | $4 | +$14 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darling-Demand 0x6bdb…4496 | No | +200 | $164 | $164 | 1 | 07-02 03:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x2e8e…5b53 | Yes | +77 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-02 03:47 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +66 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-02 03:47 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-02 03:47 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | +28 | $21 | $21 | 3 | 07-02 00:01 |
| Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | +22 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-04 10:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | +15 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-02 03:47 |
| Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-15 12:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x0af4…3d53 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 21:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-07 21:17 |
| Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | +4 | $1 | $3 | 3 | 07-04 03:36 |
| Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-02 03:47 |
| Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 01:13 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 21:17:35 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 0 | 81¢ | $0 | 0x5fa988… |
| 07-07 21:17:35 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x5fa988… |
| 07-07 21:17:35 | (anonymous) 0x0af4…3d53 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x5fa988… |
| 07-04 10:08:05 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x233576… |
| 07-04 10:08:05 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x233576… |
| 07-04 03:36:11 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xbb969a… |
| 07-04 03:36:11 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xbb969a… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 18¢ | $12 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | BUY | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | Darling-Demand 0x6bdb…4496 | No | BUY | 200 | 82¢ | $164 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | (anonymous) 0x2e8e…5b53 | Yes | BUY | 77 | 17¢ | $13 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 03:47:20 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x1cad67… |
| 07-02 00:01:55 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x0173db… |
| 07-02 00:01:55 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 10 | 77¢ | $8 | 0x0173db… |
| 07-01 22:17:19 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xc7fc0a… |
| 07-01 22:17:19 | (anonymous) 0x5dff…a5df | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0xc7fc0a… |
| 07-01 19:33:53 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x69909d… |
| 07-01 19:33:53 | (anonymous) 0x5dff…a5df | Yes | BUY | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x69909d… |
| 06-17 15:59:14 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xaca240… |
| 06-17 15:59:14 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 18¢ | $0 | 0xaca240… |
| 06-16 01:13:18 | Emotional-Trigonometry 0xc53d…4346 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xfb5115… |
| 06-16 01:13:18 | Unwilling-Burden 0x7be5…a53b | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xfb5115… |
| 06-15 12:23:12 | Outlandish-Complicity 0x0781…c4ff | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x50b329… |
| 06-15 12:23:12 | Near-Tell 0x651a…22e9 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x50b329… |
| 06-13 01:36:54 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 8 | 77¢ | $6 | 0x78d66f… |
| 06-13 01:36:54 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 8 | 77¢ | $6 | 0x78d66f… |
| 06-05 17:47:48 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 10 | 74¢ | $7 | 0xea2a19… |
| 06-05 17:47:48 | Crazy-Fishmonger 0xefac…c9a1 | No | BUY | 10 | 74¢ | $7 | 0xea2a19… |
| 06-05 07:24:54 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 2 | 26¢ | $0 | 0x1e1347… |
| 06-05 07:24:54 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 2 | 74¢ | $1 | 0x1e1347… |
| 06-05 07:24:30 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | No | SELL | 2 | 79¢ | $1 | 0xe5608e… |
| 06-05 07:24:30 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 2 | 79¢ | $1 | 0xe5608e… |