Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 10%-15%?
open
Total volume
$2,714
Trades
192
Unique wallets
50
Liquidity
$760
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-25
last 10-29 10:34
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-8.7¢
(top1%: 9% YES on $279
vs crowd: 18% YES on $1.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 21 | $165 | $1.1K | $945 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 16 | $150 | $346 | $196 |
| 🐟 Fish | 12 | $22 | $100 | $78 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1 | $4 | — | +$4 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 11 | $26 | $254 | $228 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| Below median | 4 | $4 | $37 | $33 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $54 | $154 | $100 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $33 | $192 | $158 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 13 | $127 | $921 | $795 |
| unranked | 1 | $96 | — | +$96 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +668 | $104 | $104 | 16 | 10-29 00:30 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +424 | $324 | $324 | 17 | 10-28 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +110 | $90 | $90 | 6 | 10-23 18:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +90 | $20 | $20 | 3 | 10-10 22:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +90 | $72 | $72 | 2 | 10-10 20:39 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +70 | $14 | $14 | 3 | 10-27 18:45 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +70 | $74 | $306 | 5 | 10-29 10:34 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +55 | $7 | $7 | 4 | 10-08 19:09 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +48 | $41 | $41 | 4 | 10-27 18:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +40 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 10-27 19:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +40 | $35 | $35 | 2 | 10-27 18:45 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +40 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 10-10 20:39 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | +40 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 10-10 20:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +33 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 10-08 19:09 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +30 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 10-26 13:38 |
| Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | +29 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-18 17:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +24 | $19 | $20 | 3 | 10-28 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +24 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-28 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x592a…800f | No | +22 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-23 18:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 10-25 12:57 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +20 | $16 | $17 | 2 | 10-11 15:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-25 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-23 13:37 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-10 20:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-28 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-23 13:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x4056…c4f1 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-25 19:16 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-18 18:10 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 09-08 17:30 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-18 17:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x248c…a56b | No | +9 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-08 17:20 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-25 19:16 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +4 | $0 | $6 | 7 | 10-24 03:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | +4 | -$16 | $208 | 8 | 10-16 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-08 19:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 10:34:53 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 78¢ | $0 | 0xc82cd9… |
| 10-29 10:34:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 0 | 78¢ | $0 | 0xc82cd9… |
| 10-29 00:30:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 22¢ | $6 | 0x4c5c38… |
| 10-29 00:30:32 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | SELL | 26 | 22¢ | $6 | 0x4c5c38… |
| 10-28 10:12:29 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 23¢ | $0 | 0x3f08f7… |
| 10-28 10:12:29 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 77¢ | $0 | 0x3f08f7… |
| 10-28 07:23:26 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0x0c9a0c… |
| 10-28 07:23:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x0c9a0c… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 78¢ | $19 | 0xc1dd41… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 24 | 78¢ | $19 | 0xc1dd41… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 4 | 78¢ | $3 | 0xdaa439… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 18 | 78¢ | $14 | 0x60111e… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 18 | 78¢ | $14 | 0x60111e… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 4 | 78¢ | $3 | 0xdaa439… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 15 | 78¢ | $12 | 0x560f02… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x560f02… |
| 10-28 07:23:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 12 | 78¢ | $9 | 0x560f02… |
| 10-27 21:46:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xfe7566… |
| 10-27 21:46:14 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xfe7566… |
| 10-27 21:38:02 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | No | SELL | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xd05d91… |
| 10-27 21:38:02 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 23¢ | $3 | 0xd05d91… |
| 10-27 21:38:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 9 | 76¢ | $7 | 0xd05d91… |
| 10-27 19:16:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc75187… |
| 10-27 19:16:09 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xc75187… |
| 10-27 19:16:02 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xe4a41c… |
| 10-27 19:16:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xe4a41c… |
| 10-27 19:15:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 150 | 77¢ | $116 | 0x42ac7c… |
| 10-27 19:15:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 77¢ | $23 | 0x42ac7c… |
| 10-27 19:15:57 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x42ac7c… |
| 10-27 19:15:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 100 | 77¢ | $77 | 0x42ac7c… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 200 | 87¢ | $174 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | (anonymous) 0x8268…e7fd | No | BUY | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xfe5d6d… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 28 | 87¢ | $24 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 308 | 13¢ | $40 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 18¢ | $9 | 0xfe5d6d… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xfe5d6d… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | BUY | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-27 18:45:59 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x0fdcb5… |
| 10-26 13:38:21 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x54b43d… |
| 10-26 13:38:21 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x54b43d… |
| 10-25 16:29:41 | (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x73bd72… |
| 10-25 16:29:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x73bd72… |
| 10-25 12:57:45 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x4176d9… |
| 10-25 12:57:45 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | SELL | 0 | 80¢ | $0 | 0x4176d9… |
| 10-25 12:52:17 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xc2bd25… |
| 10-25 12:52:17 | (anonymous) 0x73f4…83a0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xc2bd25… |
| 10-25 12:52:17 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x7fdb25… |
| 10-25 12:52:17 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x7fdb25… |
| 10-25 11:44:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x4f9a57… |
| 10-25 11:44:09 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x4f9a57… |
| 10-25 11:33:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 78¢ | $31 | 0x5be377… |
| 10-25 11:33:51 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x5be377… |
| 10-25 11:33:51 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x5be377… |
| 10-24 03:32:15 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x789c93… |
| 10-24 03:32:15 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 0 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x789c93… |
| 10-23 18:30:45 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x490d49… |
| 10-23 18:30:45 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xdedf3e… |
| 10-23 18:30:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xdedf3e… |
| 10-23 18:30:45 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x490d49… |
| 10-23 18:30:35 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 24 | 75¢ | $18 | 0x583340… |
| 10-23 18:30:35 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 24 | 25¢ | $6 | 0x583340… |
| 10-23 18:30:35 | (anonymous) 0x592a…800f | No | BUY | 22 | 75¢ | $16 | 0xc8a1bc… |
| 10-23 18:30:35 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xc8a1bc… |
| 10-23 18:30:35 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 2 | 25¢ | $0 | 0xc8a1bc… |
| 10-23 14:54:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0xa0cbc7… |
| 10-23 14:54:09 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | SELL | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0xa0cbc7… |
| 10-23 13:47:14 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xed09f6… |
| 10-23 13:47:14 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 24¢ | $7 | 0xed09f6… |
| 10-23 13:47:14 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | No | SELL | 50 | 76¢ | $38 | 0xed09f6… |
| 10-23 13:37:23 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 40 | 78¢ | $31 | 0xc436de… |
| 10-23 13:37:23 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | SELL | 40 | 78¢ | $31 | 0xc436de… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | BUY | 40 | 81¢ | $32 | 0xf9d650… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0xff88fb… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 19¢ | $27 | 0xf9d650… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xf9d650… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $40 | 0xf9d650… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xf9d650… |
| 10-23 13:37:14 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0xff88fb… |
| 10-18 23:06:54 | (anonymous) 0x35f7…c68a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xdf6bef… |
| 10-18 23:06:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xdf6bef… |
| 10-18 18:10:30 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0xa39310… |
| 10-18 18:10:30 | (anonymous) 0x35f7…c68a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xa39310… |
| 10-18 17:29:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x1c9f67… |
| 10-18 17:29:17 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x1c9f67… |
| 10-16 21:43:41 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x03ffd1… |
| 10-16 21:43:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x03ffd1… |
| 10-16 19:36:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xe97223… |
| 10-16 19:36:01 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xe97223… |
| 10-16 17:32:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 17 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xf9bb76… |
| 10-16 17:32:00 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 20¢ | $3 | 0xf9bb76… |
| 10-16 17:23:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 13 | 20¢ | $3 | 0x375955… |
| 10-16 17:23:14 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 13 | 80¢ | $10 | 0x375955… |
| 10-11 15:03:15 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x746f15… |
| 10-11 15:03:15 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | SELL | 1 | 80¢ | $1 | 0x746f15… |
| 10-11 14:54:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0xc7d741… |
| 10-11 14:54:39 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | SELL | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0xc7d741… |
| 10-11 00:12:52 | (anonymous) 0xebe3…10d8 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xca34e0… |
| 10-11 00:12:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xca34e0… |