Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?
open
Total volume
$9,805
Trades
495
Unique wallets
96
Liquidity
$126
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-29
last 11-03 23:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-4.5¢
(top1%: 15% YES on $600
vs crowd: 19% YES on $6.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 38 | $540 | $3.2K | $2.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 31 | $306 | $1.5K | $1.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 20 | $433 | $590 | $158 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | — | $66 | $66 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 16 | $87 | $513 | $426 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $17 | $31 | $13 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | — | $51 | $51 |
| Median | 5 | $45 | $54 | $9 |
| Below median | 4 | $369 | $399 | $31 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $23 | $899 | $876 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 18 | $173 | $843 | $671 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 31 | $565 | $2.6K | $2.1K |
| unranked | 1 | — | $2 | $2 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | Yes | +974 | -$113 | $850 | 23 | 10-29 20:01 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +811 | $167 | $167 | 24 | 11-03 23:01 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +665 | $451 | $451 | 20 | 11-03 05:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ffa…ebc5 | No | +557 | $386 | $386 | 1 | 10-28 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x2128…f203 | Yes | +355 | $64 | $64 | 1 | 09-20 16:46 |
| Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | +245 | $106 | $128 | 4 | 10-30 13:09 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +221 | $166 | $191 | 20 | 10-30 14:51 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | +220 | $163 | $163 | 18 | 11-03 10:11 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +149 | $114 | $114 | 7 | 11-01 18:37 |
| Infatuated-Nun 0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | +135 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 10-29 23:35 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | +116 | $93 | $93 | 4 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +114 | $83 | $83 | 5 | 10-18 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +109 | $69 | $69 | 7 | 10-18 13:26 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +101 | $82 | $141 | 6 | 11-03 05:40 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +99 | $29 | $29 | 11 | 11-01 14:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | +96 | $67 | $67 | 3 | 10-29 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | +96 | $31 | $31 | 3 | 10-29 23:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +94 | $23 | $23 | 8 | 11-03 05:04 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | +79 | $16 | $16 | 3 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +76 | $63 | $63 | 7 | 09-24 18:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +70 | $41 | $41 | 3 | 10-18 13:24 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | +67 | $60 | $162 | 15 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +64 | $16 | $22 | 5 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +63 | $39 | $39 | 6 | 10-18 13:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +60 | $15 | $15 | 3 | 10-29 03:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +60 | $47 | $47 | 3 | 10-29 03:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x50f7…0eca | No | +51 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 10-18 23:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x856a…4ea2 | Yes | +50 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-19 21:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | +49 | $39 | $39 | 2 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | +49 | $9 | $25 | 9 | 10-29 23:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | +48 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 11-03 05:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | +44 | $9 | $11 | 5 | 11-03 10:11 |
| Standard-Jackal 0x5f3e…5337 | Yes | +42 | $16 | $34 | 5 | 10-19 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | +41 | $33 | $33 | 3 | 11-03 10:11 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | +40 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-28 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +40 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 09-27 14:04 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +40 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 10-28 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +40 | $30 | $52 | 4 | 09-27 14:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | +34 | $25 | $47 | 3 | 10-23 14:58 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +32 | $20 | $20 | 3 | 10-26 06:57 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | +30 | $8 | $12 | 3 | 10-29 23:35 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | +30 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 10-29 23:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +29 | $24 | $24 | 2 | 11-01 21:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +25 | $16 | $57 | 5 | 11-01 20:20 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +25 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 10-24 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | No | +24 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-18 23:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | +24 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-18 23:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +24 | $5 | $11 | 3 | 11-01 12:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +24 | $21 | $59 | 3 | 11-03 02:25 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | Yes | +21 | $10 | $24 | 3 | 10-20 04:12 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | No | +21 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-19 09:30 |
| Standard-Jackal 0x5f3e…5337 | No | +21 | $16 | $67 | 4 | 10-19 00:25 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +21 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 11-03 05:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-29 03:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x8fab…cb94 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $19 | 3 | 09-25 11:41 |
| Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | Yes | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 09-20 16:58 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-18 13:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | +20 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-23 09:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-28 00:17 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +18 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-29 23:36 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-03 23:01:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x7b48cc… |
| 11-03 23:01:33 | (anonymous) 0x17dd…944c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x7b48cc… |
| 11-03 10:11:52 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x066c3b… |
| 11-03 10:11:52 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 7 | 81¢ | $6 | 0x066c3b… |
| 11-03 10:11:51 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0x012264… |
| 11-03 10:11:51 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x012264… |
| 11-03 10:11:51 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 16 | 80¢ | $13 | 0x012264… |
| 11-03 09:41:25 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x98451b… |
| 11-03 09:41:25 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x98451b… |
| 11-03 09:31:39 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0x25ff8d… |
| 11-03 09:31:39 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0x25ff8d… |
| 11-03 09:05:01 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x1ad930… |
| 11-03 09:05:01 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0xfd9e6b… |
| 11-03 09:05:01 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | SELL | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0xfd9e6b… |
| 11-03 09:05:01 | (anonymous) 0xd96a…d8ce | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x1ad930… |
| 11-03 05:40:07 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 19 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x2414f2… |
| 11-03 05:40:07 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 19 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x2414f2… |
| 11-03 05:40:06 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xcbaacc… |
| 11-03 05:40:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 27 | 79¢ | $21 | 0xcbaacc… |
| 11-03 05:40:06 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xcbaacc… |
| 11-03 05:04:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xb60ccf… |
| 11-03 05:04:57 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xb60ccf… |
| 11-03 05:04:54 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x2fb39d… |
| 11-03 05:04:54 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x5fef3c… |
| 11-03 05:04:54 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x5fef3c… |
| 11-03 05:04:54 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | SELL | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x2fb39d… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 15 | 79¢ | $12 | 0xb6e3ab… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 21¢ | $3 | 0xb6e3ab… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x27c900… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x5a7016… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 15 | 79¢ | $12 | 0x5a7016… |
| 11-03 05:04:42 | (anonymous) 0xd96a…d8ce | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x27c900… |
| 11-03 02:25:42 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 60 | 21¢ | $13 | 0xcd914c… |
| 11-03 02:25:42 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 60 | 79¢ | $47 | 0xcd914c… |
| 11-03 02:25:42 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 36 | 79¢ | $28 | 0x4a1b09… |
| 11-03 02:25:42 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 36 | 21¢ | $8 | 0x4a1b09… |
| 11-03 02:25:40 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | SELL | 24 | 79¢ | $19 | 0x6c03d2… |
| 11-03 02:25:40 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 24 | 79¢ | $19 | 0x6c03d2… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 33 | 80¢ | $26 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 27 | 80¢ | $22 | 0xeee814… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 40 | 80¢ | $32 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 202 | 20¢ | $40 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 74 | 80¢ | $59 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 80¢ | $19 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 27 | 20¢ | $5 | 0xeee814… |
| 11-03 02:25:39 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | No | BUY | 31 | 80¢ | $25 | 0x71c7a1… |
| 11-02 22:51:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x816056… |
| 11-02 22:51:55 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x816056… |
| 11-02 18:37:43 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 3 | 80¢ | $2 | 0xb42066… |
| 11-02 18:37:43 | (anonymous) 0x01f1…bceb | No | SELL | 3 | 80¢ | $2 | 0xb42066… |
| 11-01 21:59:15 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xc61855… |
| 11-01 21:59:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xc61855… |
| 11-01 21:39:15 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 8 | 82¢ | $7 | 0xd66879… |
| 11-01 21:39:15 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xd66879… |
| 11-01 21:33:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x135c6d… |
| 11-01 21:33:48 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 11 | 82¢ | $9 | 0x135c6d… |
| 11-01 20:20:07 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 9 | 79¢ | $7 | 0x0f687d… |
| 11-01 20:20:07 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | SELL | 9 | 79¢ | $7 | 0x0f687d… |
| 11-01 20:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xce0e14… |
| 11-01 20:20:01 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | BUY | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xf86c02… |
| 11-01 20:20:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xce0e14… |
| 11-01 20:20:01 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xf86c02… |
| 11-01 18:37:33 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 29 | 78¢ | $23 | 0x2b1d5a… |
| 11-01 18:37:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 22¢ | $6 | 0x2b1d5a… |
| 11-01 14:09:37 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x1230b3… |
| 11-01 14:09:37 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0x1230b3… |
| 11-01 14:09:34 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 9 | 80¢ | $7 | 0xa91e69… |
| 11-01 14:09:34 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xa91e69… |
| 11-01 14:08:36 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 16 | 79¢ | $13 | 0x85ee9f… |
| 11-01 14:08:36 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x85ee9f… |
| 11-01 14:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x73e27d… |
| 11-01 14:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x8bf258… |
| 11-01 14:07:43 | These-Woodshed 0xd7b6…2ccd | No | BUY | 1 | 79¢ | $1 | 0x8bf258… |
| 11-01 14:07:43 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 19 | 79¢ | $15 | 0x73e27d… |
| 11-01 12:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x14576c… |
| 11-01 12:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x14576c… |
| 11-01 12:11:43 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 20¢ | $5 | 0xdd27a7… |
| 11-01 12:11:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 80¢ | $19 | 0xdd27a7… |
| 10-30 14:51:58 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0xb5ac07… |
| 10-30 14:51:58 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 19¢ | $17 | 0xb5ac07… |
| 10-30 14:51:58 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 19¢ | $10 | 0xb5ac07… |
| 10-30 13:09:27 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 4 | 75¢ | $3 | 0x1bd5a5… |
| 10-30 13:09:27 | Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x1bd5a5… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x0d6ad5… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 12 | 83¢ | $10 | 0x4399e8… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 22 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x85d4fb… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x4399e8… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x4399e8… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 16 | 81¢ | $13 | 0x0d6ad5… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x85d4fb… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | (anonymous) 0x0ef9…8f58 | No | SELL | 37 | 82¢ | $31 | 0x4399e8… |
| 10-30 13:09:25 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x85d4fb… |
| 10-30 09:50:04 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | No | SELL | 30 | 81¢ | $24 | 0x5f69d2… |
| 10-30 09:50:04 | Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0x5f69d2… |
| 10-29 23:36:43 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x28e473… |
| 10-29 23:36:43 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | SELL | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x28e473… |
| 10-29 23:35:46 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x302306… |
| 10-29 23:35:46 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 8 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x302306… |
| 10-29 23:35:46 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | SELL | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0x302306… |
| 10-29 23:35:39 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | SELL | 30 | 78¢ | $23 | 0x735f12… |