Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 9%-12%?
open
Total volume
$2,842
Trades
277
Unique wallets
65
Liquidity
$12,214
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-10
last 11-04 04:11
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.6¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $2.4K
vs crowd: 3% YES on $2.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 34 | $31 | $2.6K | $2.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 11 | $29 | $101 | $73 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $1 | $36 | $35 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 13 | $24 | — | +$24 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 29 | $33 | $2.4K | $2.3K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $2 | $39 | $37 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| Median | 4 | $1 | $20 | $19 |
| Below median | 3 | $1 | $8 | $7 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $24 | — | +$24 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 13 | $20 | $284 | $265 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | +875 | $19 | $19 | 18 | 10-26 22:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | +664 | $12 | $12 | 13 | 10-29 01:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +522 | $519 | $519 | 9 | 10-26 22:27 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +340 | $337 | $337 | 7 | 11-04 02:40 |
| Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | +330 | $318 | $318 | 6 | 10-22 01:42 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +318 | $1 | $1 | 5 | 10-26 22:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +312 | $310 | $310 | 5 | 10-26 22:27 |
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +269 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 10-17 12:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x7b89…ddae | Yes | +251 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 10-21 14:20 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +184 | $6 | $6 | 5 | 11-04 03:13 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +161 | $160 | $160 | 2 | 10-21 12:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +124 | $123 | $123 | 5 | 10-26 22:27 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +122 | $121 | $121 | 4 | 11-04 02:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | +120 | -$1 | $2 | 4 | 10-21 12:28 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +117 | $114 | $114 | 2 | 10-20 20:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | +100 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-21 12:22 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +91 | $90 | $90 | 2 | 10-21 12:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +90 | $85 | $85 | 6 | 08-24 19:57 |
| Ironclad-Housework 0x9703…69c2 | Yes | +79 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 10-11 16:28 |
| Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | +65 | $64 | $64 | 3 | 10-26 22:27 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +58 | $58 | $58 | 2 | 10-26 22:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | +50 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 11-04 02:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 10-23 22:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +47 | $0 | $0 | 4 | 11-04 04:11 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +45 | $43 | $43 | 5 | 08-24 19:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | No | +42 | $42 | $42 | 2 | 10-21 12:38 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +41 | $41 | $41 | 3 | 11-04 04:11 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +40 | $39 | $39 | 2 | 09-15 12:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x71a3…3fb4 | No | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 10-21 12:22 |
| Frail-Granny 0x33e5…1c91 | No | +39 | $39 | $39 | 1 | 11-04 01:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +39 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 11-04 02:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x550f…7dad | Yes | +30 | -$2 | $3 | 7 | 10-21 14:20 |
| Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | +24 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 10-21 14:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d27…7e73 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 11-03 12:07 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 3 | 08-15 15:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 4 | 10-24 20:55 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 08-24 19:56 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 10-21 12:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 08-11 13:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-04 04:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | +14 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-04 02:39 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | +11 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-04 00:50 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 10-21 12:22 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-30 21:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xf8cc…028a | Yes | +9 | $0 | $1 | 2 | 11-04 00:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xf2ee…7658 | No | +9 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-23 22:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | Yes | +8 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-27 14:00 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | Yes | +8 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-27 13:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x4fe7…5ab1 | No | +8 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 08-24 19:57 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +7 | $0 | $3 | 2 | 08-15 15:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x5f9f…a179 | Yes | +7 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 10-24 20:55 |
| Blissful-Maestro 0xd1a6…1507 | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-15 15:37 |
| Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-21 12:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x86ca…16be | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-24 19:52 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-21 01:53 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 04:11:15 | (anonymous) 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x22083a… |
| 11-04 04:11:15 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x22083a… |
| 11-04 04:11:15 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 21 | 100¢ | $21 | 0x22083a… |
| 11-04 04:11:13 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x2cf150… |
| 11-04 04:11:13 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 18 | 100¢ | $18 | 0x2cf150… |
| 11-04 04:11:12 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3b1eaa… |
| 11-04 04:11:12 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x3b1eaa… |
| 11-04 03:13:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1e11e4… |
| 11-04 03:13:01 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | SELL | 12 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1e11e4… |
| 11-04 02:40:03 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | BUY | 12 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x784cb6… |
| 11-04 02:40:03 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 12 | 100¢ | $12 | 0x784cb6… |
| 11-04 02:39:45 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0xa526f1… |
| 11-04 02:39:45 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa526f1… |
| 11-04 02:39:45 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa526f1… |
| 11-04 02:39:43 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 34 | 100¢ | $34 | 0xed4dcb… |
| 11-04 02:39:43 | (anonymous) 0xf94d…cfe1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xed4dcb… |
| 11-04 02:39:43 | (anonymous) 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xed4dcb… |
| 11-04 01:08:18 | Frail-Granny 0x33e5…1c91 | No | BUY | 39 | 99¢ | $39 | 0x246798… |
| 11-04 01:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x246798… |
| 11-04 01:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 19 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x246798… |
| 11-04 00:50:22 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x043003… |
| 11-04 00:50:22 | (anonymous) 0xf8cc…028a | Yes | SELL | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x043003… |
| 11-03 12:07:12 | (anonymous) 0x1d27…7e73 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x0a2787… |
| 11-03 12:07:12 | (anonymous) 0xf8cc…028a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x0a2787… |
| 10-30 21:51:58 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x96349c… |
| 10-30 21:51:58 | Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x96349c… |
| 10-29 01:37:05 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x96a42d… |
| 10-29 01:37:05 | (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x96a42d… |
| 10-27 14:08:38 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1abe3e… |
| 10-27 14:08:38 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | SELL | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1abe3e… |
| 10-27 13:06:20 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | Yes | SELL | 0 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x115c6b… |
| 10-27 13:06:20 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x115c6b… |
| 10-27 13:06:17 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 112 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc398d7… |
| 10-27 13:06:17 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | Yes | SELL | 112 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc398d7… |
| 10-27 13:01:47 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc7a8eb… |
| 10-27 13:01:47 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | SELL | 23 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc7a8eb… |
| 10-27 01:13:44 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 135 | 0¢ | $1 | 0xda2595… |
| 10-27 01:13:44 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | SELL | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xda2595… |
| 10-27 01:13:44 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | SELL | 125 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xda2595… |
| 10-26 22:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2d425c… |
| 10-26 22:28:42 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 35 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2d425c… |
| 10-26 22:27:14 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc4eaa8… |
| 10-26 22:27:14 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | BUY | 4 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc4eaa8… |
| 10-26 22:27:14 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 45 | 100¢ | $45 | 0xc4eaa8… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x8023f0… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x40671b… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb2ca08… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x8023f0… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x40671b… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 110 | 100¢ | $110 | 0xb2ca08… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb2ca08… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | BUY | 84 | 99¢ | $83 | 0x0a2c73… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 84 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x0a2c73… |
| 10-26 22:27:12 | (anonymous) 0x827d…c558 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xb2ca08… |
| 10-25 04:57:02 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 29 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x04c865… |
| 10-25 04:57:02 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 16 | 97¢ | $16 | 0x04c865… |
| 10-25 04:57:02 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 13 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x04c865… |
| 10-24 21:03:14 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x642700… |
| 10-24 21:03:14 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x642700… |
| 10-24 20:55:42 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x1c176a… |
| 10-24 20:55:42 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1c176a… |
| 10-24 20:55:42 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1c176a… |
| 10-24 20:55:42 | (anonymous) 0x5f9f…a179 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x1c176a… |
| 10-24 20:55:42 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1c176a… |
| 10-24 18:54:06 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x410d91… |
| 10-24 18:54:06 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x410d91… |
| 10-23 22:58:33 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x11d888… |
| 10-23 22:58:33 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x11d888… |
| 10-23 22:58:32 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 56 | 97¢ | $55 | 0x783795… |
| 10-23 22:58:32 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x783795… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x72945c… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x72945c… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0xf2ee…7658 | No | BUY | 9 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x48da7f… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x48da7f… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x21358c… |
| 10-23 22:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x21358c… |
| 10-22 01:42:44 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | SELL | 3 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf8fdaf… |
| 10-22 01:42:44 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xf8fdaf… |
| 10-22 01:42:44 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | SELL | 68 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf8fdaf… |
| 10-22 01:42:44 | (anonymous) 0x3807…ec06 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf8fdaf… |
| 10-22 01:42:44 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | Yes | SELL | 21 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf8fdaf… |
| 10-21 21:24:42 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9b2a72… |
| 10-21 21:24:42 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | SELL | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9b2a72… |
| 10-21 21:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x4bed…a2b0 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xcac2cd… |
| 10-21 21:11:24 | Grimy-Breastplate 0x13ad…65fd | Yes | BUY | 23 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xcac2cd… |
| 10-21 14:20:00 | (anonymous) 0x550f…7dad | Yes | SELL | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3c647c… |
| 10-21 14:20:00 | (anonymous) 0x7b89…ddae | Yes | BUY | 251 | 4¢ | $9 | 0x3c647c… |
| 10-21 14:20:00 | Near-Familiar 0x6139…6b7a | No | BUY | 230 | 96¢ | $222 | 0x3c647c… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf9f919… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | Tepid-Monopoly 0x28bf…4a4e | No | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xf9f919… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x7e3f9a… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x36395e… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x7e3f9a… |
| 10-21 14:19:59 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 28 | 100¢ | $28 | 0x36395e… |
| 10-21 14:16:21 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8152ce… |
| 10-21 14:16:21 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 24 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x8152ce… |
| 10-21 14:16:21 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | BUY | 24 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x8152ce… |
| 10-21 14:15:44 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 21 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x13d78a… |
| 10-21 14:15:44 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x13d78a… |
| 10-21 14:15:44 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x13d78a… |