Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 15%-20%?
open
Total volume
$6,707
$5 in 24h
Trades
535
Unique wallets
97
Liquidity
$154
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-12
last 11-04 14:11
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-16.3¢
(top1%: 19% YES on $439
vs crowd: 35% YES on $5.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 36 | $965 | $2.5K | $1.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 35 | $842 | $690 | +$152 |
| 🐟 Fish | 21 | $44 | $221 | $177 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $33 | $45 | $12 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 19 | $84 | $355 | $271 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $428 | — | +$428 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $5 | $28 | $23 |
| Median | 1 | $67 | — | +$67 |
| Below median | 8 | $35 | $83 | $48 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 11 | $47 | $139 | $92 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 24 | $206 | $466 | $260 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 29 | $1.0K | $2.4K | $1.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +1,970 | $525 | $525 | 44 | 10-30 09:29 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +1,749 | $1,302 | $1,302 | 39 | 11-02 19:06 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +239 | $183 | $184 | 13 | 10-29 23:06 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +239 | $64 | $115 | 13 | 10-29 23:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | +216 | -$146 | $990 | 47 | 11-01 16:51 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +130 | $102 | $132 | 5 | 11-01 18:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +104 | $82 | $82 | 6 | 10-19 15:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +100 | $71 | $163 | 11 | 10-25 00:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +100 | $44 | $77 | 13 | 10-22 22:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +100 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 10-10 13:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +100 | $78 | $78 | 1 | 10-10 13:17 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +92 | $27 | $45 | 11 | 10-25 03:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +89 | $27 | $37 | 12 | 11-01 18:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +89 | $70 | $162 | 10 | 11-01 18:44 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | +71 | $53 | $89 | 5 | 11-01 18:45 |
| Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | +71 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 11-01 18:44 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | +70 | $49 | $49 | 4 | 10-26 15:23 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle 0x1ee9…197f | Yes | +67 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 10-21 17:48 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +60 | $22 | $96 | 18 | 11-03 05:01 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | +60 | $56 | $231 | 14 | 10-25 18:19 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +60 | $53 | $53 | 8 | 09-20 02:11 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +60 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 10-11 14:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | +55 | $38 | $38 | 1 | 10-20 10:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +55 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 11-03 05:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | +55 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-20 10:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | +45 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 10-26 15:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | +45 | $15 | $15 | 4 | 10-26 15:13 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +40 | $9 | $19 | 5 | 11-01 16:51 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +40 | $29 | $60 | 3 | 10-29 23:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +40 | $19 | $49 | 6 | 11-01 07:44 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +40 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-11 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xea24…2cc8 | Yes | +40 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 10-25 03:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +40 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 11-01 16:50 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +40 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 10-11 15:28 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +40 | $36 | $36 | 2 | 09-20 09:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xea24…2cc8 | No | +40 | $31 | $31 | 1 | 10-25 03:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +39 | $30 | $30 | 3 | 10-25 00:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +39 | $10 | $11 | 3 | 10-24 23:55 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | +37 | $28 | $81 | 6 | 10-28 18:20 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +36 | $7 | $21 | 6 | 10-25 01:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +33 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-13 10:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +33 | $26 | $36 | 3 | 10-13 10:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x8461…94d7 | No | +31 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 08-29 20:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +31 | $25 | $25 | 3 | 10-22 06:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | +30 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 10-28 11:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +29 | $14 | $34 | 6 | 10-22 21:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +29 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 10-22 21:26 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | +25 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 11-01 07:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xa5eb…6409 | Yes | +25 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 11-01 16:50 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +25 | $19 | $29 | 2 | 11-04 14:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +24 | $12 | $20 | 4 | 10-12 16:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x22eb…7178 | No | +22 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-13 10:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x8323…7f87 | No | +20 | $14 | $15 | 2 | 10-22 23:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x6fdb…6b9d | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 10-21 22:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x8323…7f87 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-22 22:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 11-01 18:44 |
| Fine-Tassel 0x0084…2ecf | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-25 01:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x22eb…7178 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-13 10:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x6fdb…6b9d | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-21 19:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 11-01 07:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 14:11:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x994d34… |
| 11-04 14:11:55 | (anonymous) 0xadc2…2bea | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x994d34… |
| 11-03 05:01:13 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xb5a799… |
| 11-03 05:01:13 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xb5a799… |
| 11-02 19:06:46 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x63dc24… |
| 11-02 19:06:46 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x63dc24… |
| 11-01 18:45:51 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 35 | 72¢ | $25 | 0x3ef80a… |
| 11-01 18:45:51 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 35 | 28¢ | $10 | 0x3ef80a… |
| 11-01 18:44:13 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x54739b… |
| 11-01 18:44:13 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x54739b… |
| 11-01 18:44:04 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xab7214… |
| 11-01 18:44:04 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 50 | 30¢ | $15 | 0xab7214… |
| 11-01 18:44:04 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 28¢ | $4 | 0xf536b6… |
| 11-01 18:44:04 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 70 | 70¢ | $49 | 0xab7214… |
| 11-01 18:44:04 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 15 | 72¢ | $11 | 0xf536b6… |
| 11-01 16:51:27 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0xe2ebc2… |
| 11-01 16:51:27 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0xe2ebc2… |
| 11-01 16:50:49 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 25 | 77¢ | $19 | 0x6f0721… |
| 11-01 16:50:49 | (anonymous) 0xa5eb…6409 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 23¢ | $6 | 0x6f0721… |
| 11-01 16:50:48 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 25 | 77¢ | $19 | 0xb6cf7a… |
| 11-01 16:50:48 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 61 | 23¢ | $14 | 0xb6cf7a… |
| 11-01 16:50:48 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 23¢ | $4 | 0xb6cf7a… |
| 11-01 16:50:48 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xb6cf7a… |
| 11-01 16:50:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 79¢ | $24 | 0x74da65… |
| 11-01 16:50:15 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 50 | 78¢ | $39 | 0x74da65… |
| 11-01 16:50:15 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 150 | 22¢ | $32 | 0x74da65… |
| 11-01 16:50:15 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x74da65… |
| 11-01 07:44:25 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xf78dda… |
| 11-01 07:44:25 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xf78dda… |
| 11-01 07:44:25 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 0 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xf78dda… |
| 11-01 07:44:00 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x1f4521… |
| 11-01 07:44:00 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x1f4521… |
| 11-01 07:44:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 60 | 75¢ | $45 | 0x1f4521… |
| 10-30 09:29:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x167971… |
| 10-30 09:29:39 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x167971… |
| 10-30 06:57:37 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x03b00d… |
| 10-30 06:57:37 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x03b00d… |
| 10-30 02:39:00 | (anonymous) 0x8ac1…7d86 | No | SELL | 8 | 42¢ | $3 | 0x5d9154… |
| 10-30 02:39:00 | (anonymous) 0x28a6…d399 | No | BUY | 3 | 41¢ | $1 | 0x5d9154… |
| 10-30 02:39:00 | (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 58¢ | $3 | 0x5d9154… |
| 10-30 01:33:27 | Immaterial-Selfconfidence 0xfdb0…e391 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xa65baf… |
| 10-30 01:33:27 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xa65baf… |
| 10-30 01:33:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x7bac4c… |
| 10-30 01:33:10 | Immaterial-Selfconfidence 0xfdb0…e391 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x7bac4c… |
| 10-30 00:33:46 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x4d5752… |
| 10-30 00:33:46 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | No | BUY | 21 | 77¢ | $16 | 0x4d5752… |
| 10-30 00:33:34 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xd4af81… |
| 10-30 00:33:34 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xd4af81… |
| 10-30 00:33:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 41 | 77¢ | $32 | 0x6267b6… |
| 10-30 00:33:31 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x6267b6… |
| 10-30 00:33:31 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 21 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x6267b6… |
| 10-29 23:06:12 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0xe0ce94… |
| 10-29 23:06:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0xe0ce94… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xfd58a5… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x178f9f… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x178f9f… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x7c4f67… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $16 | 0xfd58a5… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x285b07… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x285b07… |
| 10-29 23:06:10 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x7c4f67… |
| 10-29 21:32:45 | (anonymous) 0x8ac1…7d86 | No | SELL | 7 | 74¢ | $5 | 0xa5ee10… |
| 10-29 21:32:45 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0xa5ee10… |
| 10-29 15:26:11 | (anonymous) 0xbba8…beb9 | No | BUY | 8 | 75¢ | $6 | 0xd7cb95… |
| 10-29 15:26:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 25¢ | $2 | 0xd7cb95… |
| 10-28 18:20:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xddc5da… |
| 10-28 18:20:31 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xddc5da… |
| 10-28 18:20:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 75¢ | $30 | 0xddc5da… |
| 10-28 15:59:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 77¢ | $19 | 0xe96547… |
| 10-28 15:59:41 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | BUY | 25 | 23¢ | $6 | 0xe96547… |
| 10-28 11:59:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 26¢ | $10 | 0x97b9c5… |
| 10-28 11:59:13 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | SELL | 38 | 26¢ | $10 | 0x97b9c5… |
| 10-28 11:43:26 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 10 | 78¢ | $7 | 0x2dbcff… |
| 10-28 11:43:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x2dbcff… |
| 10-26 22:12:53 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 15 | 75¢ | $12 | 0x2706b7… |
| 10-26 22:12:53 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 25¢ | $4 | 0x2706b7… |
| 10-26 15:23:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 27¢ | $3 | 0x4b7255… |
| 10-26 15:23:08 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 10 | 73¢ | $7 | 0x4b7255… |
| 10-26 15:13:06 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $14 | 0x7469d0… |
| 10-26 15:13:06 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0x2fd635… |
| 10-26 15:13:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 27¢ | $10 | 0x2fd635… |
| 10-26 15:13:06 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x7469d0… |
| 10-26 15:13:06 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 18 | 73¢ | $13 | 0x2fd635… |
| 10-25 18:19:02 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 25¢ | $9 | 0xd0d626… |
| 10-25 18:19:02 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 60 | 75¢ | $45 | 0xd0d626… |
| 10-25 18:19:02 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 60 | 26¢ | $16 | 0xd7dbe7… |
| 10-25 18:19:02 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 60 | 74¢ | $44 | 0xd7dbe7… |
| 10-25 18:19:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 97 | 25¢ | $24 | 0xd0d626… |
| 10-25 17:11:57 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x2a63c9… |
| 10-25 17:11:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x2a63c9… |
| 10-25 17:11:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xb0ea27… |
| 10-25 17:11:56 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xb0ea27… |
| 10-25 14:53:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 79¢ | $20 | 0x3e6cf3… |
| 10-25 14:53:18 | (anonymous) 0x8ac1…7d86 | No | SELL | 25 | 79¢ | $20 | 0x3e6cf3… |
| 10-25 14:39:57 | Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | SELL | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x65516d… |
| 10-25 14:39:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 60 | 20¢ | $12 | 0x65516d… |
| 10-25 14:39:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 94 | 20¢ | $19 | 0x65516d… |
| 10-25 14:39:57 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 25 | 20¢ | $5 | 0x65516d… |
| 10-25 03:15:44 | Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x3049b1… |
| 10-25 03:15:44 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 21¢ | $8 | 0x3049b1… |